South West Future Landscapes Programme

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South West Future Landscapes Programme

• Lyndis Cole
• Sally Parker
• Land Use Consultants

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Overall aim of the South West Future Landscapes
Programme

• To develop an understanding of and
  responsibility for the landscape of the South
  West now and in the future, with strong
  engagement at all levels in pro-active and
  integrated planning for the landscape of the
  future the maintenance and creation of a mosaic
  of diverse and distinctive landscapes in good
  condition that are widely valued for the range of
  services and benefits they provide for human
  well-being and ultimately for human survival in
  the face of climate change.
• (aim subject to agreement by the Partnership)

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Key objectives to deliver the aim

• To understand how and why the landscapes of the
  South West have changed, and will change in the
  future.
• To identify how current and future policy drivers
  and actions at the local and regional level can
  be used to ensure that change is for the benefit
  of landscape character, quality, and local
  distinctiveness.
• To engage the general public and decision makers
  in understanding the causes and effects of
  landscape change and the role they can play in
  delivering the landscapes they want
• To work towards matching the delivery of
  necessary services with the maintenance and
  creation of desired landscapes.
• To develop tools that help planners and other
  decision-takers take account of landscape change
  when planning for the future. (link to separate
  contract)

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Summary of the key elements of Phase 1 (led by
LUC)

• Scoping of available information on past and
  future forces for change acting on the region,
  and associated impacts on landscape (detailed in
  the Technical Report).
• Review of examples of engagement tools already
  developed to illustrate landscape change (also
  included in the Technical Report).
• Production of a set of Project sheets for
  selected areas across the region which are
  considering or responding to landscape change.
• Illustrated storylines of landscape change for
  four key landscape types found in the region
  looking at the past, present and future, using
  artists impressions.
• A Programme Brief detailing an ambitious
  programme of work for the Regional Landscape
  Partnership to take forward over the next five
  years (to deliver Phase 2).

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Phase 1 outputs

• Information on past and future landscape change

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Summary of PAST landscape change

• Agriculture
• Peak in livestock numbers in 1970s, now returning
  to 1930 levels.
• Steady increase in the area of non-food crops
  since mid-1980s.
• 22 loss of hedgerows in Somerset between
  1945-1994.
• Decrease in area of traditional orchards from
  34,000 ha in 1930 to 5,000 ha in 2007. Recent
  launch of a National Trust / Natural England
  project to halt loss, with funding from Countdown
  2010 national news story

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PAST landscape change (cont.)

• Woodland
• Area of woodland cover nearly doubled over last
  100 years particularly in Devon, Cornwall and
  Somerset, especially driven by the increase in
  conifer plantations.
• The rate of new tree planting in the SW is
  significantly higher than any other region
  (around 1,500 hectares annually).
• 50 loss in working wood pasture over last 50
  years.

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PAST landscape change (cont.)

• Historic environment
• 45 decline in area of parkland particular loss
  in Dorset Heaths (68), Somerset Levels Moors
  (55) and Vale of Taunton Quantock Fringes
  (gt30).
• 35 of Englands At Risk monuments are in the
  South West.

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PAST landscape change (cont.)

• Population
• 23 population increase 1971-2005.
• Greatest increase in housing stock of any region
  (1991-2005) - gt300,000 houses built in this
  period alone, many in rural areas.
• In the Culm between the 1960s and 2007 there was
  an 800 increase in disturbed areas. The
  equivalent figure for the the Dorset/Wiltshire
  chalklands was 285.

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PAST landscape change (cont.)

• Renewable energy schemes
• Renewable energy schemes now produce enough
  electricity to supply nearly 120,000 homes.
• Currently 7 wind farms in Cornwall, produce 79
  of the regions wind energy.

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Early 20th century view
Late 20th century view
Ladram Rocks, near Sidmouth. Used as part of a
Landscapes Old and New project for East Devon
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Early 20th century view
Late 20th century view
Round Ball Hill, Honiton. Used as part of a
Landscapes Old and New project for East Devon
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Summary of predicted FUTURE drivers for landscape
change

• Climate change
• Annual rainfall in the SW region expected to
  increase by 20 by 2050 and up to 30 by 2100.
• Average daily temperatures in the SWregion are
  predicted to rise by 2 degrees (low emissions
  scenario) or 3 degrees (high emissions scenario)
  by 2050.
• More frequent extreme weather events are expected
  and sea level rise in the South West could be
  higher than anywhere else in England between 20
  and 80 cm by the 2080s.

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FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.)

• Population and development
• Between 2006 and 2026 the population of the SW
  region is forecast to increase by 750,000 people
  to 5.85 million.
• Between 2006 and 2029 the number of households is
  expected to increase by 27.
• By 2026 there will be a 40 increase in the
  number of residents aged 75 and over.
• Around 23,000 new dwellings a year will be needed
  up to 2026 to meet the scale of need.

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FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.)

• Recreation and tourism
• Longer, more reliable summers and warmer winters
  extending the tourist season.
• Increased heatwaves and extreme weather in
  overseas tourism areas bringing an increase in
  domestic tourism.
• Flexible working and healthy living policy
  agendas increasing the amount of leisure time
  available for outdoor recreation.

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FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.)

• Agriculture
• Policy drive towards multi-functional land use
  the ecosystem services approach.
• Market-driven change predictions of a
  forthcoming energy crunch may lead to a
  significant decline in the use of artificial
  fertilisers.
• Impacts and responses to climate change
  flooding (wetland recreation), droughts (demand
  for irrigation), new pests/diseases, different
  growing conditions, new crops (including
  bioenergy/biofuels), and potential emphasis on
  food security.

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FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.)

• Biodiversity
• A policy emphasis on landscape-scale habitat
  management and restoration e.g. through South
  West Nature Map and Natural Englands Climate
  Change Study to
• Increase habitat and species resilience to
  climate change
• Maintain and improve ecosystem service delivery
• Reflect the public desire for the conservation of
  the characteristic habitats and species of the
  region.

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FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.)

• Woodlands and forestry
• Pests and diseases e.g. Processionary Moth and
  Red Band Needle Blight reducing the viability of
  commercial forestry.
• Other pests/diseases affecting valued
  semi-natural woodlands e.g. Oak dieback and
  Sudden Oak Death (latter also affecting beech)
• Increase in summer drought leading to a decline
  in drought sensitive species especially beech.
• Stormy conditions leading to increased frequency
  of wind throw (reintroduction of pollarding could
  reduce this).
• Potential for unmanaged woodlands to be brought
  back into positive management under community
  schemes to provide wood fuel.

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FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.)

• Historic environment
• Increase in tourism at historic sites
• Potential increase in storm damage,
  light-degradation, fungal and beetle damage to
  historic buildings.
• Archaeology in the uplands could dry out in
  summer sites in coastal locations may be lost as
  sea levels rise.
• Changes to the landscape setting of heritage
  sites resulting from climate-driven vegetational
  shifts.

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FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.)

• Renewable energy development (mitigation)
• New targets through the Climate Change Act 2008
  require a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions
  by 80 from 1990 levels by 2050.
• Current South West target is to generate 11-15
  of all electricity needs from renewable sources
  by 2010 (Regen SW, 2003).
• Current demand for new wind farms within the
  region focused on Devon (based on current
  applications in the planning system).
• Demand for bioenergy crops / Short Rotation
  Coppice likely to increase.

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FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.)

• Landfill, quarrying, water resources
• Strict targets for a reduction in waste going to
  landfill EU Landfill Directive.
• Region forecasted to produce 510 million tonnes
  of primary aggregate (2005-2020) the second
  highest of the English regions.
• Increase in demand for water, predicted fall in
  supply of 2 from existing sources by the 2020s.
• Potential salinity of borehole / river mouth
  extraction points due to sea level rise.

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Natural England Climate Change Study in the
Cumbria High Fells (2008)
Use of computer software to modify a current
photograph to show likely impacts of climate
change -increase in bracken -footpath
erosion -upwards migration of heath
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FUTURE Landscape Change interactive tools
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FUTURE Landscape Change decision-making tools
South West Nature Map (Somerset)
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Phase 1 outputs

• Programme Brief for Phase 2

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10 proposed projects

• 1. A vision for the future landscapes of the
  South West
• 2. A classification of sub-regional landscape
  typologies
• 3. A compendium of ongoing trends and future
  forces for change
• 4. A South West Atlas of Landscape Change
• 5. Best practice examples of functional
  landscapes
• 6. Storylines of change at the sub-regional level
• 7. Storylines of change at the parish level
• Landscape tools fit for the future
• A variety of tools of engagement
• 10. Landscape monitoring

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Project 1 A vision for the future landscapes of
the South West

• To develop a vision for the future landscape of
  the South West that sits beneath Natural
  Englands national Vision for Future Landscapes
  (that will be developed over the coming year).
• This South West vision can provide an umbrella to
  more local visions that might be developed in the
  future.

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Project 2 A classification of sub-regional
typologies

• To develop a clear spatial landscape framework or
  classification to define landscapes of similar
  character that are likely to perform similar
  functions / deliver the same range of services.
• In turn this will provide a framework for
  identifying landscape change and future
  landscapes across the South West region.
• (TOP PRIORITY PROJECT)

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Project 3 A compendium of trends and forces for
change

• Online resource of key research reports and the
  results of any relevant regional projects -
• Could be hosted by other partner websites (e.g.
  South West Observatory) or on a dedicated website
  for the Programme - South West Future Landscapes
  Hub
• (LOW PRIORITY PROJECT)

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Project 4 A South West Atlas of Landscape Change
(optional)

• To develop a GIS-based (ideally) interactive map
  of the South West giving spatial representation
  of landscape change over time.
• This would link to the Atlas proposed for the
  protected landscapes of the South West and more
  local Atlases being developed by some of the
  protected landscapes in the region (e.g. Cornwall
  AONB Atlas).

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Project 5 A Palette of Functional Areas and
Features

• To raise awareness of the range of important
  services provided by particular types of
  landscape and by key landscape features. This
  will be demonstrated through a series of
  practical exemplar place-based projects made up
  of
• existing best practice examples
• new collaborative projects involving land
  managers and local communities working in
  partnership with key agencies.

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Projects 6 and 7 Storylines of Landscape Change

• This work will have two distinct purposes
• (a) to develop a storyline of change from past
  to future in a number of distinct geographical
  areas with distinct and different landscapes,
  performing different functions and
• (b) to explore approaches for planning for
  future landscapes. In addition, information will
  be produced that will contribute to long term
  monitoring.
• Two scales sub-regional and parish level

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Project 8 Landscape Tools Fit for the Future

• To ensure that landscape tools used to guide
  landscape management and planning decisions are
  future proof and consider the full range of
  services and functions that landscapes will be
  expected to provide in the future.

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Project 9 Range of engagement tools

• A programme website (South West Future
  Landscapes Hub)
• A video developed at the outset of the Programme
  to promote involvement and interest in landscape
  change.
• Leaflets and posters published throughout the
  course of the Programme to initially advertise,
  then provide information on activity
• PowerPoint presentations updated throughout the
  course of the Programme to suit different
  audiences.
• Workshops and annual events used to launch the
  programme, with annual events giving updates on
  the work of the programme.
• Organised visits to see functioning future
  landscapes in practice.
• An e-newsletter to keep people informed and
  engaged in the programme, circulated every six
  months

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Project 10 Landscape Monitoring

• The Regional Atlas of Landscape Change (Activity
  4)
• The Storyline of Change at the Sub-regional level
  (Activity 6)
• The Storyline of Change at the Parish level
  (Activity 7)
• Above activities will be able to add regional /
  local information to fill in important detail in
  other national and regional monitoring programmes

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Project priorities
As agreed with the Steering Group (to be
confirmed with wider Partnership)
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Inter-linkages between projects
(Darker shading shows strongest links note
projects are, however, designed to be
free-standing)
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Phase 1 outputs

• Project sheets
• and
• Landscape change storylines

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Project sheets
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Landscape change storylines