Status Report: NOAA

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Status ReportNOAAs Arctic Goals for IPY
Beyond

• John Calder and Kathleen Crane
• Arctic Research Program, CPO
• Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Menu

• State of the Arctic Report
• Current Activities
• NOAAs Contributions to IPY
• Value to Society

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State of the Arctic Report
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SOA Table of Contents

• Atmosphere
• Circulation
• Surface temperatures
• Forcing of changes
• Ocean
• Circulation
• Heat and freshwater content
• Sea level
• Sea Ice Cover
• Extent and thickness
• Surface conditions
• Land
• Vegetation
• Water and ice
• permafrost

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Next SOA Topics

• Atmosphere
• Ocean
• Sea ice
• Land
• Greenland ice sheet
• Biology
• A new format will be used - a simple report
  card with back-up science papers.

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Arctic Climate Observations

• The SOA report reinforces that the Arctic has to
  be considered as a system
• The Arctic Research Program from its inception
  has included ocean, ice, atmosphere and marine
  ecology as its main elements and continues to
  work in this way

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Current Activities
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• Arctic Atmospheric Observing Network
• Arctic Change Detection and System Analysis
• RUSALCA
• North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem
  Productivity
• Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Observing Network

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International Arctic Systems for Observing the
Atmosphere
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Science Goals

• Provide multi-decadal cloud, radiation, aerosol,
  meteorological and flux data
• Use observations to understand atmospheric and
  surface processes at regional scale
• Apply data to improve model parameterizations
• Support calibration, algorithm development and
  validation for satellite observations
• Serve as logistics base for diverse science
  observations, e.g., permafrost borehole, etc

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RUSALCA
RUSALCA Goals

• Observations where Arctic sea ice is reducing
  rapidly
• Bering St. fresh water, nutrient fluxes
• Regional physics and ecosystem response to
  change.
• Improve international Arctic science
  collaboration
• Explore the unknown Arctic with OE

Russian American Long-term Census of the Arctic
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A RUSALCA Goal Gateway Fluxes via Long-term
Moorings in Bering Strait
NOAA, NSF, RAS will install 8 Moorings Across
the Bering Strait in 2007
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Demersal fish distribution
Bottom Water Masses
SSW
BSW
AW
ACW

• Fish community correlates reasonably well with
  water masses
• Fish community also correlates positively with
  substrate type

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Climate Change Scenarios in Eastern Chukchi Sea
Increase in ACW conditions (fresher, warmer, less
productive)

• Less infauna, reduction of biomass hotspot
• Probably unchanged epifauna ?
• Re-distribution of fishes (expansion of
  south-central
• Chukchi fish)
• Invasion of invertebrates and fishes from Bering
  Sea
• Longer food chains (less tight benthic-pelagic
  coupling)

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RUSALCA
Found Further North
Walleye Pollock Theragra chalcogramma
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North Pacific Climate Regimes Ecosystem
Productivity
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Partnerships for Sustained Observations
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Arctic Observing Network

• Interagency, international effort to observe over
  decades, changes in the environment in the Arctic
  to provide stakeholders with climate, weather,
  research and resource information critical for
  the global society.

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Goal Contribute To the design Of an
Arctic Observing Network Based on the
SEARCH Implementation Plan and Existing
Operational Networks
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Developing International Science Partnerships

• IPY
• Arctic Regional GOOS
• Arctic Observing Network (AON) and its developing
  international counterpart
• Arctic GEOSS

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NOAA Arctic ResearchCoordination
AON/GOOS/GEOSS
Intragency
International
Interagency
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International Polar Year
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International Polar Year Exploration-Observations

• RUSALCA Exploration of Marine Life in the
  Pacific-Arctic What lives in this part of the
  Arctic Ocean? How will it migrate due to climate
  change?

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International Polar Year Arctic Observations

• Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the
  Pacific Arctic (RUSALCA)
• Polar Atmospheric Observatories and Field
  Campaigns (IASOA)
• Polar Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Observations
• Autonomous under-ice systems testing (AGAVE
  expedition, methane fluxes from the seafloor)
• Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

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International Polar Year Observations

• Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the
  Pacific Arctic (RUSALCA)
• Polar Atmospheric Observatories and Field
  Campaigns (IASOA)
• Polar Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Observations
• Autonomous under-ice vehicles (AGAVE expedition,
  methane sensing)
• Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

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International Polar Year Observations

• Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the
  Pacific Arctic (RUSALCA)
• Polar Atmospheric Observatories and Field
  Campaigns (IASOA)
• Polar Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Observations
• Autonomous under-ice vehicles (AGAVE expedition,
  methane detection)
• Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

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International Polar YearPrediction Modeling

• Short-term Arctic Predictability (STAP) THORPEX
• Advances in Satellite Products and their Use in
  Numerical Weather Prediction
• Arctic Climate Modeling

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International Polar Year Data, Outreach
Decision Support

• NOAAs Data, Information, and Change Detection
• Regional Integrated Science and Assessment (RISA)
• National Ice Center (NIC)
• Education IPY/NSTA symposia
• Association of Science and Technology Centers
  (IGLO PROGRAM)
• Climate Change in the Arctic Ocean-Teacher
  Development project.

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International Polar Year Data, Outreach
Decision Support

• NOAAs Data, Information, and Change Detection
• Regional Integrated Science and Assessment (RISA)
• National Ice Center (NIC)
• Education IPY/NSTA symposia
• Association of Science and Technology Centers
  (IGLO PROGRAM)
• Climate Change in the Arctic Ocean-Teacher
  Development project.

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Value to Society
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Possible Arctic Influences on Global Climate
Change

• Increase of methane in the atmosphere due to a
  thaw in the permafrost on land and under water
• Fresh water /salt water unbalances, Ocean
  circulation disruption
• Changing albedo of the planet due to melting of
  sea ice and taller vegetation
• Extinction or migration of many species
• Rising sea level due to the melting of the
  Greenland Ice Sheet
• Increase in severe weather

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Atmospheric Influences on the total system are
profound
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Sea Ice thinning is predicted to Continue
Pacific Gateway
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Major Alterations of Fresh Water transport to the
Atlantic
1979
1990

• Impact on global thermohaline circulation

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Effects on Commerce

• Reduction of Arctic sea ice may encourage
  shipping from Asia to Europe through the Arctic.

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Thank You