Fish and Energy Impacts Resulting from Reductions in Summer Bypass Spill

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Fish and Energy Impacts Resulting from Reductions
in Summer Bypass Spill

• July 16, 2003

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2003 Bypass Spill (NOAA Fisheries)
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Wholesale Electricity Prices(Mid-Columbia,
Average Hydro, 2005-06)
In 2005-06, west coast demand and resources are
more in balance.
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Cost as a Function of Runoff
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Observations

• In dry years, flow costs exceed spill costs
• In wet years, spill costs exceed flow costs
• Flow costs decrease linearly as a function of
  runoff
• In drier years, spill costs increase with runoff
  until spill limits are reached
• Bypass spill costs then decline in wet years as
  forced spill increases

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50-Year Average Annual Cost(millions)

• Current bypass spill program 142
• Spring only 74
• Summer only 68
• July only 30
• August only 38
• Gas limit at 115 97
• Savings 45
• Spring savings 36
• Summer savings 9
• July savings 5
• August savings 4

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Juvenile Fall Chinook Outmigration 10-Year
Average
Percent of run completed Percent of run completed Percent of run completed
Dam July 1 July 31 August 31
Lower Granite 26.1 75.5 94.7
McNary 45.8 91.2 99.5
John Day 42.6 83.1 98.9
Bonneville 59.4 93.1 99.3
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Alternatives

• Under average, high and low flow conditions,
  compare fall chinook survival using 2000
  Biological Opinion spill levels to
• No bypass spill in July and August
• No bypass spill in August

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Starting with 1000 fish, population change with
no spill in July or August
Population Average Flow High Flow Low Flow
Snake River Fall Chinook -1 -1 -1
Upper Columbia Fall Chinook -30 -21 -39
Lower Columbia Chinook -13 -0.4 -23
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Starting with 1000 fish, population change with
no spill in July or August (CRiSP)
Population Average Flow High Flow Low Flow
Snake River Fall Chinook -3 -4 -2
Upper Columbia Fall Chinook -20 -13 -23
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Starting with 1000 fish, population change with
no spill in August
Population Average Flow High Flow Low Flow
Snake River Fall Chinook -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
Upper Columbia Fall Chinook -11 -11 -12
Lower Columbia Chinook -4 -4 -4
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Starting with 1000 fish, population change with
no spill in August (CRiSP)
Population Average Flow High Flow Low Flow
Snake River Fall Chinook -1 -1 -1
Upper Columbia Fall Chinook -2 -2 -2
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Assumptions
Population Estimated 2003 Juvenile Outmigration Smolt to Adult Survival
Snake River Fall Chinook 2.1 million 1
Upper Columbia Fall Chinook 22.2 million 1
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Number of Juveniles Lost Under Average Flow
Conditions
Population No Summer Spill No August Spill
Snake River Fall Chinook -1,500 -500
Upper Columbia Fall Chinook -680,000 -240,000
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Number of Adults Lost Under Average Flow
Conditions
Population No Summer Spill No August Spill
Snake River Fall Chinook -15 -5
Upper Columbia Fall Chinook -6,800 -2,400
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Decrease in Harvest and Escapement Upper Columbia
Fall Chinook
Adult Return No Summer Spill No August Spill
Harvest -3,000 -1,000
Escapement -3,800 -1,400
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Fall Chinook Escapement at McNary Dam
Year Adult Passage Escapement Goal
2002 143,000 45,000
10 year average 81,000 40,000 to 45,000
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Fall Chinook Escapement at Lower Granite Dam
Year Adult Passage Wild Fish Escapement Goal
2002 12,300 2,500
10 year average 3,600 2,500
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Uncertainties

• Mixed populations
• Variable yearly outmigration
• May increase adult turbine mortality

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Positive Aspects

• Affect on listed stocks very low
• Stocks affected generally healthy
• May help adult migration
• May use saved revenues more cost-effectively for
  fish

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Alternatives to Current Summer Spill Levels

• More flexible summer spill program
• Reduce predation
• Increase hatchery production
• Less costly passage improvements at dams
• Reduce harvest with compensation
• Protect more habitat
• Combination of above