From Party-Centered to Candidate-Centered Campaigns

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Campaigns Circa 1900

• Nominations Parties controlled who was
  nominated.
• Political Organization Parties monopolized
  political organization though a system of
  precinct and block captains held together with
  the rewards of patronage.
• Mass Media And parties controlled the flow of
  information to the voter through daily and weekly
  newspapers with clear party affiliation.

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Campaigns Circa 1900

• Results The old system was truly party centered.
  Parties chose the candidates, determined the
  issues, disseminated the information, organized
  and ran the campaigns.
• Candidate To be successful a candidate had to
  bend his will to that of the party -- typically
  serving a long apprenticeship, working ones way
  up in the party apparatus ala G.W. Plunkett.

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Campaigns Circa 2000

• Nominations We see a party that has lost its
  power to control who is nominated to primary
  election voters.
• Political Organization We see a party whose
  monopoly of political organization has been
  destroyed by the rise of countless special
  interest groups and mass media.
• Mass Media We see a party whose control of the
  media has vanished under a blizzard of
  competition. We see voters who get most of their
  information from the electronic mass media in
  6-second sound bites on the network news and in
  30-second spot commercials during campaigns.

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Campaigns Circa 2000

• Results Today parties appear to be at the mercy
  of candidates rather than candidates being at the
  mercy of parties.
• Where the presidency is concerned, a national
  convention meets and approves a platform. Then,
  like robots, the delegates cast their votes, and
  the winner in the primaries and caucuses becomes
  the candidate.
• The party's platform is forgotten. The
  candidate's views are what counts, and they may
  change from day to day in response to the
  perceived needs of the campaign.

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Campaigns Circa 2000

• More Results Modern campaigns are
  candidate-centered, and each candidate must rely
  on her own resources. It is the candidate who
• assembles an organization.
• invents a platform.
• produces media and buys broadcast time.
• raises the money.
• hires the experts who have displaced party
  functionaries in all these areas.
• pays the bills.
• Money is the first primary. Regardless of party,
  the voters are generally allowed to chose only
  among the candidates who have been pre-approved
  by wealthy contributors.

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Campaigns Circa 2000

• Candidate
• Favors incumbents who have all the advantages of
  name recognition and the perks of office.
• Favors political outsiders who have high name
  recognition Ronald Reagan (actor), Arnold
  Schwarzenegger (body builder turned actor), Jesse
  Ventura (professional wrestler), George W. Bush
  (presidents son), Al Franken (humorist).
• Favors people who are handsome and glib, a
  candidate who is good with a sound bite and looks
  good saying it (Barak Obama).
• Favors people who can raise humongous sums of
  money. (Hillary Clinton Barak Obama). And it
  helps to be fabulously rich yourself (Ross Perot,
  Steve Forbes, Mitt Romney).
• Disfavors George Washington Plunkett, et al.

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How Does System Bias Change?

• Change the rule, institution or procedure.
• What is the most persistent cause of change in
  the rules of government politics? --- POLITICS
• Change the context. Change the environment.
• What is the most persistent cause of change in
  the environment of government politics? The
  most obvious reason that things are different now
  than they were 200 years ago? --- TECHNOLOGY

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Whats Behind the Shift from Party-Centered to
Candidate-Centered Campaigns?

• POLITICS Progressive Party Bashing
• Primary Elections
• Civil Service
• Initiative, Referendum Recall
• TECHNOLOGY
• Electronic Media
• Specialization of Campaign Functions

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Social Welfare Policy

• It reflects our political culture individual
  self-reliance trumps equality.
• It reflects our political parties the policies
  of each party reflect the interests of the core
  constituencies they represent.
• It reflects the strength of business interest
  groups most welfare programs pay private
  businesses to service the poor rather than giving
  money to the poor or having government provide
  the services directly.
• It reflects the general distribution of power in
  society more welfare dollars actually flow to
  the non-poor than to the poor.

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Distribution of Wealth USA

• Morton (Harvard) and Airely (Duke) in press

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Simple Distribution
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The Great Divergence A Study of Changing Income
Inequality

• By Timothy Noah
• Slate, September 2010
• http//www.slate.com/id/2266025/entry/2266026/

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http//www.slate.com/id/2266025/entry/2266026/
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Comparative Income DistributionLorenz Curve
method 0 perfect equality 100 perfect
inequalitySource CIA Factbook accessed
2/9/11https//www.cia.gov/library/publications/t
he-world-factbook/rankorder/2172rank.html
1 Namibia 70.7
2 South Africa 65.0
7 Haiti 59.2
18 El Salvador 52.4
28 Mexico 48.2
35 Rwanda 46.8
39 Uganda 45.7
41 Uruguay 45.2
42 United States 45.0
43 Cameroon 44.6
45 Iran 44.5
53 Russia 42.2
54 China 41.5
63 Jordan 39.7
67 Israel 39.2
74 Japan 38.1
76 Yemen 37.7
90 Egypt 34.4
92 United Kingdom 34.0
98 France 32.7
100 Canada 32.1
106 European Union 31.0
107 Netherlands 30.9
108 Ireland 30.7
109 Pakistan 30.6
110 Australia 30.5
119 Kazakhstan 28.8
125 Germany 27.0
133 Norway 25.0
134 Sweden 23.0
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The American Presidency
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John Edwards '08 "Health Care http//www.factc
heck.org/video/YouTube_-_John_Edwards_-_quotHealth
_Carequot_Television_Ad_-_Iowa_WMV.wmv
Edwards When I'm president, I'm going to say to
members of Congress and members of my
administration, including my Cabinet, "I'm glad
that you have health care coverage and that your
family has health care coverage. But if you don't
pass universal health care by July 2009 - six
months - I'm going to use my power as president
to take your health care away from
you."Edwards There's no excuse for politicians
in Washington having health care when you don't
have health care.I'm John Edwards and I approve
this message.
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THERE is an idea, which is not without its
advocates, that a vigorous executive is
inconsistent with the genius of republican
government. The enlightened well-wishers to this
species of government must at least hope that the
supposition is destitute of foundation since
they can never admit its truth, without at the
same time admitting the condemnation of their own
principles. Energy in the executive is a
leading character in the definition of good
government. It is essential to the protection of
the community against foreign attacks it is not
less essential to the steady administration of
the laws to the protection of property against
those irregular and high-handed combinations
which sometimes interrupt the ordinary course of
justice to the security of liberty against the
enterprises and assaults of ambition, of faction,
and of anarchy. . . . A feeble executive
implies a feeble execution of the government. A
feeble execution is but another phrase for a bad
execution and a government ill executed,
whatever it may be in theory, must be, in
practice, a bad government.
--Alexander Hamilton, Federalist 70
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Foreign Policy Powers under the Constitution
The Exception to Congressional Dominance?
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Foreign Policy Powers under the Constitution

• President
• Commander in Chief
• commission all officers
• receive ambassadors
• President and Senate
• appoint ambassadors
• make treaties
• Congress (conditional veto)
• impose duties to provide for the common defense
• regulate commerce with foreign nations
• establish a rule of naturalization
• regulate the value of foreign coin

1. define punish piracies felonies committed on
   the high seas offenses against the Law of
   Nations
2. declare war, grant letters of marque reprisal,
   make rules concerning captures
3. raise support armies
4. provide maintain a navy
5. make rules for armed forces
6. provide for calling forth the militia to repel
   invasions
7. prescribe training of militia
8. exercise exclusive jurisdiction over forts,
   arsenals, etc.
9. make all laws which shall be necessary and proper

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The Imperial Presidencyby Arthur Schlesinger,
Jr.

• Growth of presidential power has been fairly
  gradual, and most has been concentrated in the
  areas of military and foreign affairs.
• George W. Bush on Iraq Social Security
• Presidential power grows in times of crisis and
  shrinks in time of calm.
• But it always grows more than it shrinks.

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The Imperial Presidency

• Control over Information
• Executive Privilege
• Commander-in-Chief
• Mexican War
• Civil War
• Emancipation Proclamation
• Andrew Johnson Impeachment

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The Imperial Presidency

• Spanish American War
• World War I
• Treaty of Versailles
• League of Nations
• Permanent Crisis
• Great Depression
• World War II
• Cold War Cult of the Presidency

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The Revolutionary Presidency of Richard Nixon

• Policy Impoundment
• Selective Enforcement
• Legislation by Executive Order
• Pocket Veto
• Perpetual and Universal Privilege
• Police Powers of National Government
• War Powers Act
• Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act
• Secret Wars in Laos and Cambodia
• Watergate
• Threatened Impeachment Nixon Resignation

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Growth of Presidential Power Technology the
Constitution

• The Framers fear of unified power.
• Secrecy and dispatch.
• One voice.
• Chief bureaucrat.

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Presidential Preference and Position on the
Electoral College

• Politics 262
• November 2004

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Actual (Expected) Values
Pro-EC Anti-EC
Pro Bush 7 (2.67) 1 (5.33) 8
Pro Kerry 0 (4.33) 13 (8.67) 13
7 14 21
Chi-square 17.06. Probability that
Presidential Preference and Position on Electoral
College are unrelated is less than 0.001.
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Hypotheses?
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Hypotheses?

• Leaving the Electoral College alone is the
  conservative thing to do.
• The Electoral College is justified by its
  results, and it gave us President Bush.

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Electoral College Biases
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Electoral College Biases

• Small sates have a mathematical
  over-representation because they get at least
  three electoral votes regardless of how few
  people live there.
• States with low voter turnout get protected in
  terms of influence because the electoral college
  makes voter turnout irrelevant.
• States (especially large states) where either
  candidate might win become the key battlegrounds
  and gain disproportionate influence as both sides
  pour in massive resources.

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Electoral College Biases

• The system of representation in the contingency
  procedure is a huge departure from the currently
  accepted principle of one-person-one vote.
• For what it's worth, a different set of states
  are disproportionately powerful in the nomination
  phase of the presidential campaign.

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Source http//theelectoralcollegesucks.com/
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http//www-personal.umich.edu/mejn/election/
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Social Welfare Policy

• It reflects our political culture individual
  self-reliance trumps equality.
• It reflects our political parties the policies
  of each party reflect the interests of the core
  constituencies they represent.
• It reflects the strength of business interest
  groups most welfare programs pay private
  businesses to service the poor rather than giving
  money to the poor or having government provide
  the services directly.
• It reflects the general distribution of power in
  society vastly more welfare dollars actually
  flow to the non-poor than to the poor.