Agriculture, Pro-poor Growth and Rural Development

1
The Global Food Security Challenge (www.worldbank.
org/wdr2008)
GLDN for ECA, Dec 18th
2
Critical Role of Agriculture in Food Security

• In ensuring adequate food supply
• Global food supply and demand (and shocks)
• National food supply and demand for many
  countries (Africa, China, India)
• In providing means for poor to access to food
• 75 percent of the worlds poor are rural, and
  most depend on agriculture for livelihoods
• Essential role of agriculture in providing
  subsistence and incomes of the poor

3
Agriculture as a Powerful Engine for Increasing
Incomes of the Poor

• Major conclusion of World Development Report
  2008 Agricultural growth is two to four times
  more effective in reducing poverty than growth
  coming from other sectors

Agricultural growth is especiallybeneficial to
the poor
3
4
Whither global Supply and Demand?
5
Critical land and water constraints
Global Markets ? Supply Side
Cropland per capita of agricultural population
of population in absolute water scarcity
6
Growth rates of yields for major cereals in
developing countries are slowing
Global Markets ? Food Supply
7
Rising Energy Prices and Climate Change

• Price of Urea Fertilizer (US/t)

• Climate change will negatively affect yields in
  the tropics, 2080

Source Cline (2007)
Doubling of oil prices increases grain prices by
at least 20
8
Changing diets ? Rising demand for high value
products (and feed grains)
Global Markets Demand Side
Developing and transitional country exports
Developing and transitional country consumption
9
Demand for Grain for Biofuels is a Major New
Factor in Global Markets
Source OECD and FAO, 2008
10
Long-run Prices are Projected to Rise with
Current Investment Trends
Source Rosegrant et al., 2008
11
Food ProductionContinuing Challenges in the 21st
Century

• A greater global challenge
• More from less
• The end of long-term falling food prices?
• Trade offs with the environment
• Increased volatility
• Climate change, energy prices
• Future policies on biofuels, reserves, export
  bans
• Inclusive growth
• Sharing benefits between producers and consumers
• Connecting smallholders to emerging markets

12
Investing for food security
13
Requires Emphasis on Both Technological and
Institutional Innovations

• Technological innovations
• Higher yield potential to revamp productivity
  growth
• Overcoming key resource constraints (water,
  drought)
• Role of GMOs for poor farmers and consumers
• Substitution of fossil energy use
• Adaptation to climate change and reduced GHGs
• Institutional innovations
• More efficient and inclusive supply chains
• Collective action by farmer organizations
• Risk management for more frequent price shock

14
More and Better Investments in RD to Bridge
Growing Divide

• Agricultural RD Intensity 2000 ( AgGDP)

• Agricultural RD as a Share of Budget, 2000-04

Source Pardey and Beintema,
15
Recent Yield Advances Indicate the Potential for
RD to Reverse Trends
16
Implications for the Global Community

• Do no harm
• Reform farm and biofuel subsidies
• Mitigation of climate change
• Invest in global public goods
• RD (CGIAR)
• Get agriculture back on the agenda
• Reverse trend in foreign assistance
• Revamp national food and agricultural strategies