Green = favorable for indicated operations / mission

1
(No Transcript)
2
(No Transcript)
3
(No Transcript)
4
(No Transcript)
5
(No Transcript)
6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
(No Transcript)
10
(No Transcript)
11
(No Transcript)
12
(No Transcript)
13
(No Transcript)
14
(No Transcript)
15
(No Transcript)
16
(No Transcript)
17
(No Transcript)
18
(No Transcript)
19
(No Transcript)
20
(No Transcript)
21
(No Transcript)
22
(No Transcript)
23
(No Transcript)
24
Impacts of Climate Variations on Joint
Operations Straits of Taiwan, October
Operation/Mission El Nino Periods La Nina Periods
Air Operations Improved ceilings Decreased Turbulence Decreased Convection Increased Cloudiness Increased Turbulence Increased Convection
Trafficablility Improved surface troop/supply movement due to less precipitation Degraded surface troop/supply movement due to more precipitation
Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance Increased ISR capability due to decreased cloudiness and convection Diminished capabilities due to increased cloud cover and convection
NBC Defense Less favorable due to increased stability and decreased precipitation More favorable due to decreased stability and increased precipitation
Naval Ops More favorable sea basing/safe haven due to typhoon recurvature Less favorable sea basing/safe haven due to westerly typhoon tracks
Green favorable for indicated operations /
mission Yellow marginal for indicated operation
/ mission Conditions slightly improved for NE
Taiwan due to decreased monsoonal flow.
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jun 06
Slide from NPS climatology course
25
(No Transcript)
26
(No Transcript)
27
(No Transcript)
28
(No Transcript)
29
(No Transcript)
30
Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products
in Mission Planning Process

• Scenario In the event of heightened tensions
  with North Korea, a squadron of F-15s from
  Elmendorf AFB, AK will need to deploy on short
  notice to Gwangju AB, ROK. Their refueling
  aircraft will be a pair of KC-10s from Travis
  AFB, CA. The expected launch window is July.
  The fighters will have to refuel 7 times en route
  and must avoid areas of solid cloud and moderate
  or greater turbulence.
• Task Provide climatological support for mission
  planning.

Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jun 06
Slide from NPS climatology course
31
Climatological Impacts on F-15 Squadron
Deployment Over North Pacific in July
Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products
in Mission Planning Process
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jun 06
Slide from NPS climatology course

• Launch / Divert Bases
• Thunderstorms, lightning, low ceilings likely at
  Elmendorf AFB
• Fog/stratus along coast likely to inhibit morning
  tanker take-offs from Travis AFB, CA, diverts on
  US west coast
• Air Refueling
• Clouds likely to impede refueling along storm
  track
• Winds much weaker at flight level, thus
  decreasing turbulence risk

32
Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products
in Mission Planning Process
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jun 06
Slide from NPS climatology course
Climatological Impacts on ISR Operations Over
Korean Peninsula in July
Operation METOC Criteria Climatological Features and Processes to Monitor
ISR - High Recce -- U2 -- Global Hawk -- Satellite Collections - TacRecce -- Predator Cloud cover visibility restrictions Influences sensor load-outs Launch/recovery hampered - July cloudiest, wettest month with significant fog LTM cloud-cover products Moist flow over peninsula demonstrated in moisture products High specific humidity, RH, pwat, surface precip rate, etc. Persistent cloudiness inferred by low OLR values
ISR - High Recce -- U2 -- Global Hawk -- Satellite Collections - TacRecce -- Predator Winds Decreased loiterfuel consumption Turbulence Launch/recovery (cross, out of limits) - Jet weakened, but convective activity now problematic Vector wind means isotachs illustrate jets low-level winds
ISR - High Recce -- U2 -- Global Hawk -- Satellite Collections - TacRecce -- Predator Thunderstorm Hazards Problems in flight launch/recovery Increased moisture and temperatures favorable for convective activity Low OLR indicative of increased precip
ISR - High Recce -- U2 -- Global Hawk -- Satellite Collections - TacRecce -- Predator Tropical cyclones Still observe effects even if TC does not make landfall on ROK LTM contributions possibly reflected in moisture products High specific humidity, RH, pwat, surface precip rate, etc.
ISR - High Recce -- U2 -- Global Hawk -- Satellite Collections - TacRecce -- Predator High temperatures Mechanical issues Limits to pilot endurance - High temperatures evident in low level temp fields

• Key climatological factors for Korea in July (see
  accompanying maps of SLP, Z850, chi, OLR,
• clouds, and precipitation)
• Low level low over China, high over North Pacific
• Warm moist inflow from the south along boundary
  between low and high

Reference for METOC Criteria JP 3-59. Joint
Doctrine, Tactics, Techniques, and Procedure for
Meteorological and Oceanographic Support. 23 Mar.
1999.
33
(No Transcript)
34
Operation Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts
Operation Typical (LTM) Typical (LTM) Typical (LTM) Typical (LTM) Typical (LTM) Anomaly Tendency Red Worse than normal, White no change, Green Better than Normal Anomaly Tendency Red Worse than normal, White no change, Green Better than Normal Anomaly Tendency Red Worse than normal, White no change, Green Better than Normal Anomaly Tendency Red Worse than normal, White no change, Green Better than Normal Anomaly Tendency Red Worse than normal, White no change, Green Better than Normal
ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) Predator Bagram CIG gt2000 Vis gt3sm X-winds lt10kt Icing MDT Turb MDT CIG Vis X-winds Icing Turb
CAP (Combat Air Patrol) F15 Manas CIG gt3000 Vis gt3sm X-winds lt25 kts Icing MDT Turb MDT CIG Vis X-winds Icing Turb
Interdiction B-52 Diego Garcia CIG gt3000 Vis gt3sm X-winds lt15kts Icing ltMDT Turb LGT CIG Vis X-winds Icing Turb
CAS (Close Air Support) A-10 AC-130 Bagram CIGgt3000 Vis gt3sm X-winds lt30kts Icing MDT Turb MDT CIG Vis X-winds Icing Turb
AR (Air Refueling) KC-135 Incirlik CIGgt1000 Vis gt2sm X-winds lt15kts Icing LGT Turb LGT CIG Vis X-winds Icing Turb
Slide from NPS climatology course
Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13
June 2003
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jun 06
35
Operation Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts Operation Thanksgiving Pain Climo Impacts
Operation Typical (LTM) Typical (LTM) Typical (LTM) Typical (LTM) Typical (LTM) Anomaly Tendency Red Worse than normal, White no change, Green Better than Normal Anomaly Tendency Red Worse than normal, White no change, Green Better than Normal Anomaly Tendency Red Worse than normal, White no change, Green Better than Normal Anomaly Tendency Red Worse than normal, White no change, Green Better than Normal Anomaly Tendency Red Worse than normal, White no change, Green Better than Normal
EO (Electro-optics) Over Target area CIG CLR-SCT Abs Hum Moon N/A Moon N/A Moon N/A CIG Abs Hum Moon N/A Moon N/A Moon N/A
Helicopter (Attack) AH-64 - Kandahar CIG gt3000 Vis gt3sm X-winds lt25 kts Icing LGT-MDT Turb LGT-MDT CIG Vis X-winds Icing Turb
Helicopter (Airlift) UH-60 - Kandahar CIG gt3000 Vis gt3sm X-winds lt25 kts Icing LGT-MDT Turb LGT-MDT CIG Vis X-winds Icing Turb
Slide from NPS climatology course
Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13
June 2003
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jun 06
36
(No Transcript)
37
Responding to Combatant Commander
Needs Intraseasonal-Interannual Climate
Anomalies and Forecasts
Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan and
Pakistan, 1-15 February 2005

• Precipitation, temperature, snowmelt, and runoff
  anomalies had large impacts on DoD operations.
  Led to combatant commanders requesting climate
  predictions for SWA.
• Occurred during strong, persistent subsidence
  phase of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the
  eastern IO.
• Investigated role of MJO and other climate
  variations in producing SWA climate anomalies.

Winds, Moist Adv
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jun 06
38
(No Transcript)
39
(No Transcript)
40
(No Transcript)
41
(No Transcript)
42
Development and Application of Military Smart
Climatology Process
This figures outlines a process for generating
smart climatology products for military
customers. For details of the process, and
examples of its application, see the NPS thesis
by Maj. Mark LaJoie (2006) and the next two
slides (both from his thesis).
From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF
2006 advisors Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K.
Pfeiffer.
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jun 06
43
(No Transcript)
44
Development and Application of Military Smart
Climatology Process
Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) Horn of Africa (Oct - Nov) NEO Horn of Africa (Oct - Nov) NEO Horn of Africa (Oct - Nov) NEO
Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) Typical Climate (Long Term Mean) Tendency Tendency
Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) Typical Climate (Long Term Mean) Strong El Nino (EN) Strong La Nina (LN)
UAV (RQ1B Predator) 1,2 1,2 4
Overhead Collections 1,2 4 2,4,6
Legend

1. Cloud cover 2. Precipitation 3. Winds
   4. Temperature

Favorable Moderate Unfavorable No Change
From NPS thesis research by Maj M. LaJoie, USAF
2006 advisors Prof. T. Murphree and Lt Col K.
Pfeiffer.
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jun 06
45
(No Transcript)
46
(No Transcript)
47
(No Transcript)
48
(No Transcript)
49
(No Transcript)
50
(No Transcript)
51
(No Transcript)
52
(No Transcript)
53
(No Transcript)
54
(No Transcript)
55
(No Transcript)
56
(No Transcript)
57
Selected References
Best, J., and V. Gurley, 2005. Brief for ASW
Coordination / CONOPS Conference, 14 March
2005. Feldmeier, J., 2005. Climatic Variations
of the California Current System Application of
Smart Climatology to the Coastal Ocean. Masters
of Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School,
September 2005. Advisors Profs. T. Murphree and
R. Tokmakian. Ford, B., and T. Murphree, 2006.
Smart Climatology in Support of Naval War
Fighters. Naval Postgraduate School Technical
Report, in review. Ford, B., 2000. El Nino and
La Nina Events, and Tropical Cyclones Impacts
and Mechanisms. Masters of Science Thesis, Naval
Postgraduate School, June 2000. Advisor Prof.
Tom Murphree. Fox, D.N., C.N. Barron, M.R.
Carnes, M. Booda, G. Peggion, and J.V. Gurley,
2002b The Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System
(MODAS), Oceanography, 15(1), 22-28. Hildebrand,
P., 2001. El Nino and La Nina Events and North
Atlantic tropical Cyclones. Masters of Science
Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March 2001.
Advisor Prof. Tom Murphree. LaJoie, M., 2006.
The Impact of Climate Variations on Military
Operations in the Horn of Africa. Masters of
Science Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, March
2006. Advisors Prof. Tom Murphree, Lt Col Karl
Pfeiffer.
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jun 06
58
(No Transcript)