Presidential Disaster Declarations in a Post 9/11 World

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Presidential Disaster Declarations in a Post
9/11 World

• By Prof. Rick Sylves (sylves_at_udel.edu)
• Dept. of Political Science International
  Relations
• University of Delaware, Newark DE 19716

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Why Presidential Declarations of Disaster Matter

• Governors ask Presidents to issue them, odds of
  approval from 1953-2004 are 2 in 3, 1989-2004,
  3 in 4
• Two types of pres decs Major Disaster and
  Emergency
• What a declaration brings state local
  governments.
• How much money we talking about here?
• Why do presidents sometimes turn down requests
  governors have made for Presidential
  Declarations?
• How is the world of presidential disaster
  declarations changing? National Incident
  Management System, National Response Plan, FEMAs
  incorporation into the Department of Homeland
  Security, new terror threats with catastrophic
  consequences, including bioterror.

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Presidential Turndowns of Governor Requests for
Declarations of Major Disaster or Emergency as
Percent of Total Requests over Presidential
Administration
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Sylves brief magical mystery tour of
presidential disaster declarations and turndowns

• Anthrax is released Oct 2001 into American Media
  Services building in Florida, 1 death did Gov.
  Jeb Bush win a declaration from his brother for
  this event?
• Gov. Pataki asks Pres. Clinton for a declaration
  to pay for West Nile Virus spraying costs, did
  Clinton approve it?

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In 1996, TWA flight. 800, a 747 departing Kennedy
Airport, crashes into the sea off Long Island, NY
killing all on board New Yorks Governor Pataki
asked Pres. Clinton for a declaration. Did
Clinton grant it?
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On 9/11/01 the Governor of Massachusetts
asked Pres. GW Bush for a declaration of
disaster did she get it? On 9/11 the Governors
of New Jersey and Virginia separately asked Pres
GW Bush for a declaration of emergency. Were
their requests approved?
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In March 1989 the Governor of Alaska asked Pres.
GHW Bush for a major disaster declaration for the
Exxon Valdez oil spill. Did Alaskas Governor get
it?
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The Sylves mini-quiz on disasters continued

• Over the last 50 years which state pulled in a
  disproportionately large share of federal aid
  money (almost 50) under presidential
  declarations of major disaster issued?
• Which U.S. region has the most presidential
  declarations for disaster (53-04)?
• Of the ten presidents from Eisenhower through
  G.W. Bush, which two presidents have issued the
  largest share of turndowns and which two the
  largest share of approvals?

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In 1979, the Governor of Florida asked for a
declaration to help his state manage a huge flow
of Cubans arriving from Castros Mariel Boatlift.
Did Pres. Carter grant the Governor a
declaration for it?
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In Feb. 2003 the Space Shuttle Columbia
disintegrated on re-entry. Did governors of
states in the debris zone win declarations from
Pres. GW Bush?
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The Sylves mini-quiz on disasters continued

• What kinds of disasters most often win
  presidential declarations of major disaster?
• Earthquakes? Hurricanes? Floods? Severe
  Storms? Winter Storms? Droughts? Tornadoes?
• Terrorist Attacks? Toxic Substance Incidents?
  
• Crop Freezes? Mudslides/Landslides?
• How has 9/11 and the era of Homeland Security
  changed Presidential Declaration law and policy?
• Why does Congress allow presidents to have so
  much freedom to decide what is and what is not a
  disaster or emergency?

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My testable hypotheses and the findings of others

• Several scholars allege that presidential
  declaration issuance is routinely political and
  rarely simply an administrative determination.
  (Pielke, Reeves, Sobel, Platt, etc.) Beware of
  this over-simplified claim.
• My claim is that governor requests for nearly all
  significant magnitude or high intensity, rapid
  onset disasters are decided by presidents on
  administrative terms whether those decisions
  provide political benefits to the president or
  not.

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My testable hypotheses continued

• Sometimes anomalous events have significant
  political and federal interest for a president
  (Mariel Boatlift, Columbia Shuttle Disaster-) and
  win declarations. Anomalous presidential disaster
  declarations set precedents that Governors
  remember and later request on.
• I hypothesize that for presidents, political
  factors are often paramount when governors
  request major disaster declarations for marginal
  events, that is, events at or below FEMAs
  administrative threshold of declaration
  deservedness, and the president approves the
  request.

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My testable hypotheses cont

• Presidential turndowns of the vast majority of
  governor requests for presidential declarations
  are overwhelmingly administrative, apolitical
  determinations.
• What constitutes a declarable disaster changes in
  subtle ways from president to president.
• Heavy news media coverage, especially national
  media coverage, plays a major role in influencing
  modern presidents to issue declarations for
  marginal events that would not have earned
  declarations previously

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Priorities DHS FY05 Budget (courtesy Prof.
William Waugh)

• How do these program and functional purposes
  relate to the realm of presidential declarations
  of disaster?
• Counterterrorism Prevention
• Civil aviation (TSA) 13 increase, includes 19
  more for explosives detection technologies
• State and local assistance
• Port security - 150 million
• Rail/transit security - 150 million
• Urban Area Security Initiative risk based
  allocations
• Bioterrorism Project BioShield
• Border Security 7 increase
• USCG 8.6 increase
• Natural disasters (EPR) 7 increase
• Critical infrastructure protection 6.7 increase

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Total U.S. Terrorism Casualties, 1993-2003
(courtesy Prof. William Waugh) Year
Dead Wounded/ Major Attack Injured

• 1993 7 1004 1st WTC attack
• 1994 6 5
• 1995 10 60
• 1996 25 510 Khobar Barracks
• 1997 6 21
• 1998 12 11 Embassy bombs
• 1999 6 6
• 2000 23 47 USS Cole bomb
• 2001 2689 90 WTC/Pentagon
• 2002 26 35 Afghanistan war
• 2003 35 29 Iraq war (?)

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Closing Comments

• Changes in presidential disaster declaration law,
  policy and authority, plus the emergency spending
  authority available to presidents, has over time
  encouraged a federalization of emergency
  management and has dramatically expanded the
  definition of what constitutes a disaster
  deserving of national mobilization.
• The 9/11/01 terror disaster has helped move the
  President and Congress toward the nationalization
  of domestic natural and human-caused disasters
  and emergencies of any type such that they are
  all now considered part of a national incident
  management system. All disasters and emergencies
  are now defined as incidents and the mother of
  all incidents to date is the 9/11 attacks on the
  World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

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Thank you for inviting me to make this
presentation at NDMS 2005.I welcome your
questions and I will be happy to talk with you
this afternoon.