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Title: University


1
  • University Higher School of Economics
    Institute of Statistical Research and Knowledge
    EconomicsConjuncture Research Centre
  • Practice of business tendency surveys in Russia
    methodology aspects and possibilities for early
    warning of economic activity changes
  • Third International Seminar on Early Warning
  • and Business Cycle Indicators
  • 17-19, November 2010

Conjuncture Research Centre
2
Outline
  • 1. Practice of business tendency surveys in
    Russia
  • Methodology
  • Organization
  • Developments
  • 2. Relevance for warning of economic activities
    changes
  • Application surveys results for economic analysis
    and short-term forecasting
  • Focus on recent economic crisis
  • 3. Pilot services survey
  • Methodology
  • Results

CRC
3
Business climate monitoring in Russia based on
business tendency surveys
  • With a view of expansion of traditional
    statistical measurements possibilities there is a
    necessity to use alternative sources of the
    information on economic development
  • Business climate surveys which are based on
    revealing of businessmen opinions about current
    and future business tendencies, provide a
    short-term qualitative information
  • Methodology strategy of the Conjuncture Research
    Centre (CRC) in the field of organization of
    business climate monitoring is formation of the
    Complex Harmonized System of Business Tendency
    Surveys in various sectors of Russian economy,
    adapted to the international standards

CRC
4
Business climate surveys
Sectors Starting year Sample sizes, number of enterprises Groups of enterprises Surveys frequency
Industry 1995 about 4000, including 600 basic Economic activities Patterns of ownership Organizational and legal forms Regions Monthly
Construction 1993 about 7000 Patterns of ownership Number of employed Regions Quarterly
Trade 1998 retail more than 4000 wholesale about 3000 Size of daily turnover Number of employed Regions Quarterly
Financial leasing 2002 about 900 Economic activities Regions Quarterly
Investment 2001 more than 10000 Economic activities Yearly
Services 2010 more than 4000 Economic activities Regions Yearly
CRC
5
Methodology principles of business climate
surveys organization
  • Adequacy for current economic conditions and
    national economics peculiarities
  • Comparability with statistical instruments of
    national economics analysis
  • Comparability with international analogues,
    particularly with the information of Harmonized
    EU Programme
  • Abilities of receiving short-term reliable data
  • Representativeness of samples
  • Stability of constant indicators blocks and
    actualization of variable blocks
  • Harmonization and partial unification of the
    questionnaires for comparability of the sector
    survey results
  • Possibilities
  • processing and generalization of quality
    information
  • organization of monitoring
  • indication of business cycles and turning points
    of business climate
  • integration in macroeconomic analysis and
    short-term forecasting

CRC
6
Potential of the business climate surveys
  • Strengths
  • adequacy for current economic situation
  • methodology harmonization with Eurostat and OECD
  • timely of monthly surveys all surveys
    information is received before similar statistic
    data
  • representative samples
  • no revisions
  • long-term database
  • width of coverage regions, economic activities,
    questions
  • abilities of business cycles indication,
    integration in macroeconomic analysis and
    short-term forecasting
  • Shortcomings
  • rather inflexible to changes due to harmonisation
    and collecting information through state
    statistical system (Rosstat)
  • lack of monthly construction and trade surveys

CRC
7
Organization of surveys
CRC
Rosstat
Methodology improvement questionnaires, sampling methods, methods for processing information and using it in economic practice

Sampling design

Conducting pilot surveys

Adaptation of surveys to the statistical practice, collection and transfer information to CRC ISSEK HSE

Information analysis 1. Processing aggregation, weighting, seasoning adjustment, identification of periods of contraction, recession, expansion and peaks 2. Calculating of composite confidence and business climate indicators 3. Database support (source and summary)

Issue of press releases, other information and analytic papers

Data dissemination and publication (national and international)
CRC
8
Business tendency surveys indicators system
structure and principles of building
  • First block contains a constant set of questions
    for all surveys, including harmonized questions,
    recommended OECD and European Commission
  • Second block contains special questions,
    regularly replicating during several surveys and
    concerning stable specific tendencies in Russian
    economy
  • Third block contains special questions about
    phenomena either incipient or inertial in progress

CRC
9
  • Questions about characteristics of surveying
    organization activity
  • Questions concerning indicators changes should be
    exactly connected with time lag of survey (month,
    quarter, etc.)
  • For questions concerning changes of indicators
    answers are usually given according to a 3-option
    ordinal scale
  • increased (improved) ()
  • remain unchanged ()
  • decreased (deteriorated) ()
  • Questions concerning current situation assessment
    include comparison of the real situation with a
    normal situation (usual for economic conditions
    and period) in spite of subjectivity of answers
  • more than sufficient ()
  • sufficient ()
  • not sufficient ()
  • All information is qualitative excepted some
    quantitative indicators. Number of employed in
    all surveys is used as statistical weight of unit

CRC
10
Information possibilities of business climate
surveys
  • Industry
  • branch situation demand-output
  • actual and expected price tendencies
  • level of fluctuation in stock of raw material
    and products
  • investment possibilities and intentions of the
    industrialists
  • level and tendency of capacities use
  • dominants among sources of financing and factors
    limiting development of production
  • structure of the debts
  • employment strategy
  • tendencies of export abilities and import needs
  • general economic situation in a sector
  • Construction
  • dynamics of orders book
  • actual and expected modifications of physical
    volume and cost tendencies of construction works
  • situation with financial resources and debt
    receivable
  • strategy of employment in the construction sector
  • distribution of the factors limiting building
    activity on a degree of significance
  • priority of objects in construction
  • economic situation in a sector

CRC
11
  • Retail and wholesale trade
  • actual and expected modifications of trade
    turnover, volume of stock of goods and
    assortment, number of employed
  • condition of resource and financial basis
  • distribution of trade organizations on sources of
    receipt of documentary resources, variants of
    accounts with the suppliers
  • factors limiting trade activity and priority
    directions of its development and extension
  • Investment
  • current and expected volume of investments into a
    fixed capital
  • main purposes and sources of investments in the
    current and the next years
  • factors limiting investment activity
  • condition, implementation and retirement of
    capital assets
  • Financial leasing
  • level and dynamics of demand for leasing
    activity, cost and physical volume of concluded
    contracts
  • priority sources financing of leasing activity
    and major restrictive factors
  • business situation and competitive position of
    organizations

CRC
12
Key areas of analysis of qualitative short-term
information - surveys results
  • Processing of time series of business activity
    indicators (seasonal adjustment, identification
    of recessions, expansions and peaks in cyclical
    component)
  • Calculation of various coincidence types business
    climate composite indicators on the base of
    results of cross-correlation analysis of survey
    and statistical indicators time series
  • Calculation of weight coefficients for composite
    indicators components using principle components
    method (at a development stage)

CRC
13
  • Approaches to the integration of survey results
    and statistical quantitative indicators, in
    particular
  • cross-correlation analysis of connection
    closeness and synchronism of compared indicators
    cycle profiles (for example, time series of
    industry surveys indicators and industrial
    production index)
  • short-term GDP forecast based on
    correlate-regression analysis results
  • Identification of structural-temporal correlation
    of indexes and groups with uniform quality on the
    basis of cluster analysis
  • Approaches to the non-response problem decision,
    considering character of probability assessment
    distribution and organization size
  • Assessment of business information quality and
    responses coordination
  • Calculating of Economic Sentiment Indicator
    summarizing results of real sector, services and
    consumer surveys

CRC
14
Confidence indicators
  • Industry
  • current order books
  • current stocks of finished products (with
    inverted sign)
  • production expectation over next 3 months
  • Construction
  • current order books
  • expected change of firms total employment over
    next 3 months
  • Retail and wholesale trade
  • present business situation of organization
  • future business situation of organization
  • level of stocks (with inverted sign)
  • Services
  • recent evolution of business situation
  • recent evolution of demand
  • expected evolution of demand

CRC
15
Sample design of business surveys
  • Requests to sample
  • territorial approach of sample (as a whole on
    Russia)
  • representation of sample at the level of regions,
    and in an industry - at level of each leading
    industry branch
  • minimal sample size (at the level of regions)
  • Determination of a necessary sample size
  • minimum and allowable for a regional level of
    development of survey materials (without a
    further grouping of parameters)
  • sufficient for deriving an authentic evaluation
    of a parameter
  • The minimum and allowable sample size for
    generalized information about quantitative
    parameters of business activity of the
    enterprises at a regional level accepts volume in
    60 observation units
  • Thus, it is applied multivariate stratified
    sample with random or mechanical selection of
    observation units in stratum

CRC
16
Data dissemination
  • 1. Timetable

Economic activities Reporting to Rosstat Reporting from Rosstat to CRC
Industry 10 numbers of current month 14 working day of current month
Construction 10 numbers of the 2nd month of current quarter 20 working day of the 2nd month of current quarter
Wholesale trade 10 numbers of the 3rd month of current quarter 8 working day after current quarter
Retail trade 15 numbers of the 2nd month of current quarter 6 working day of the 3rd month of current quarter
Investment On October, 20th current year On December, 3rd current year
Financial leasing On February, 10th current year On March, 12th current year
CRC
17
  • 2. Publications
  • Press releases are sent to mass-media on the 3rd
    4th day after receiving information from
    Rosstat
  • Information and analytic materials (including
    indicators of confidence) and quarterly
    newsletter Business Climate in Russia
  • available on the site of HSE http//www.hse.ru/or
    g/hse/monitoring/del
  • are submitted to government bodies, mass-media,
    scientific community, employers' organizations
  • Revues of business climate tendencies in various
    economic sectors based on business tendencies
    surveys data are regularly broadcasted by
    TV-channel Russia-24
  • Parts in international yearbooks of Federal State
    Statistic Service
  • Russia and Countries of the World
  • Russia and Countries-Members of the European
    Union
  • Great Eight in Figures

CRC
18
Methodological aspects of the analysis and
processing of business surveys results
  • Analysis basis is quantification of the
    qualitative indicators, including quantitative
    representation and measuring procedures of the
    analysis of the qualitative information on a
    level and short-term tendencies of the business
    climate indicators
  • The first stage of quantification measurement of
    qualitative characteristics (scaling) the
    formalized definition quantified characteristics
    (level or change of analyzed survey indicators)
  • The second stage of quantification the analysis
    of indicators connections within the limits of
    each survey formalization of indicators
    relations
  • The purpose "compression" of survey results,
    information consolidation to all characteristics
    in groups coherent as high as possible for
    simplification of interpretation and analysis
    creation of the composite indicators

CRC
19
Key areas for second phase of quantification
  • 1. Integration of business tendencies survey
    results
  • Assessment of quality of surveys data
    estimation of answers coordination depending on
    scaling method and surveys data co-variation
  • Non-response problem solving counting full and
    partial non-response according to character of
    probabilities distribution of respondents
    estimations and an indicator of the enterprises
    size

Horizontal Vertical (indicator approach)
Calculating of simple indicators of a level or changes of business climate measures opinion balances, average rates (for example, capacity utilization, competitive position) Identification of structural and temporal relations provisional calculating of statistically admissible composite indicators (method of principle components) Consolidation of organizations in various groups with uniform quality (by cluster analysis methods)
CRC
20
  • The third stage of quantification the
    dynamic analysis of survey results for the
    purpose of their integration into the
    macroeconomic analysis and the short-term
    forecast

Building of composite indicators of cyclic character in the presence of short time series of quality surveys indicators Building of composite indicators of cyclic character in the presence of sufficient length time series of quality surveys indicators
CRC
21
Key areas of information and analytical activity
development
  • Creation of the Complex Harmonized System of
    short-term indicators of a business climate in
    various economic sectors, including indicators
    generalizing character
  • Creation of the National Harmonized Economic
    Sentiment indicator generalizing results of real
    sector, services and consumer surveys
  • Formation of a uniform policy of distribution of
    business climate monitoring results taking into
    account the international standards, information
    representations in the international
    organizations (European Commission, OECD, etc.)
  • Expansion of sectoral coverage and adaptation of
    the methodology of business tendencies research
    on regional monitoring level

CRC
22
  • Specific targets
  • Regular studying of updated methodological and
    practical aspects of the European Union business
    tendencies researches
  • Adaptation of the European experience of
    questionnaires design, information collecting and
    processing to the Russian conditions
  • Adoption in surveys practice of the updated
    international standards of information
    collecting and dissemination
  • Actualization of business climate surveys
    programs
  • questionnaires unification
  • harmonization of non-quantitative short-term
    indicators
  • comparability of surveys results on various
    aspects of respondents activity taking into
    account specificity of regional development of
    Russian economy
  • Identification of structural-temporal
    correlations of business climate indicators,
    revealing of qualitative-homogeneous groups of
    economic agents, including on various aspects of
    their activity

CRC
23
  • Development of program, methodological and
    technological instruments of business surveys in
    various sectors of economics, including services
    and consumers, their adaptation to the
    international standards (to Eurocommission and
    OECD recommendations)
  • Preparation of all necessary methodical,
    practical materials and conducting of pilot
    regional surveys for the organization of regular
    business tendencies surveys in various sectors,
    including services and consumers for use of their
    results in a complex estimation of a business
    climate of Russia
  • Adoption of the updating methods of a
    generalizing estimation of business tendencies by
    means of composite business climate indicators,
    including the European Harmonized Economic
    Sentiment Indicator with separation of seasonal
    and cyclic components
  • Identification of leading cyclic components and
    composite indicators for expansion of
    possibilities for early warning of economic
    activities changes

CRC
24
  • Relevance business climate surveys results for
    economic analysis
  • and short-term forecasting

CRC
25
Indication of economic activity changes over a
period of crisis 1998 (Industry)
CRC
26
Indication of economic activity changes over a
period of crisis 2008 2009 (Industry)
CRC
27
Industry and Gross Domestic Product (quarterly
information)
2nd quarter 2008 maximum GDP, IIP, ICI
2nd quarter 2009 minimum GDP
High correlation of quarter GDP and Index of
industrial production (0.94) Good correlation of
time references and Industrial confidence
indicator (0.86) with leading for 1 quarter
relatively GDP
1st quarter 2009 minimum IIP and ICI
CRC
28
Retail trade
Quarterly Retail trade confidence indicators and
Retail turnover time series demonstrate
acceptable correlation (0.78) and average leading
1 -2 quarters
Crisis 2008 - 2009decline of confidence
indicator 2nd quarter 08decline of turnover
3rd quarter 08 increase of confidence indicator
1st quarter 09 increase of turnover 3rd quarter
09
Crisis 1998 decline of confidence indicator
1st quarterdecline of turnover 3rd
quarter increase of confidence indicator 3rd
quarter increase of turnover 1st quarter 99
CRC
29
Construction
1st quarter 2008 maximum
2nd quarter 2009 minimum
Construction confidence indicator and
Construction value added are changed
synchronously
CRC
30
Investment expectationsin comparison with
previous year
Balances,
CRC
31
Services business tendencies surveys
  • Premises and actuality
  • strengthening of the role of businessmen opinions
    at the formation of a favorable business
    environment
  • activization of requirements of various
    categories of users, including the international
    organizations, in estimations of short-term
    tendencies of all of economic sectors development
  • essential and constantly increasing contribution
    of services to Russian economy (more than third
    of gross value added)
  • necessity of creation of the integrated Economic
    Sentiment Indicator, generalizing estimations of
    short-term development of real sector, sectors of
    services and consumers for the purpose of early
    indication of possible changes of GDP
  • General purpose expansion of monitoring of
    business tendencies for the formation of the
    Complex Harmonized System of short-term
    indicators of a business climate in Russia
  • Current purpose approbation of the unified
    program of services business climate survey and
    its further introduction in statistical and
    economic practice
  • Specificity of services surveys
  • necessity of unification activity indicators,
    samples, methods of processing and the analysis
    for service organizations, essentially differ
    according to specific features of each type of
    services, their results, technologies, sizes,
    consumers
  • absence in Russia of experience in services
    business tendencies surveys

CRC
32
Pilot services surveys
  • For harmonization of services surveys and
    achievement of comparability of their results the
    following complex of works has been spent
  • the list of the economic activities covered by
    survey is defined
  • criteria of a choice of sampling observation
    methods and observation units selection methods
    are defined
  • the unified system of business climate monitoring
    indicators in the services, harmonized with the
    surveys spent by CRC ISSEK HSE and the
    international analogues, is developed
  • coordination of methodological and technological
    works on the pilot survey organization by
    regional statistical divisions is provided
  • Survey was spent by the Information and
    publishing center Statistics of Russia under
    the order and methodology of CRC ISSEK HSE in
    August, 2010
  • Survey format
  • self-filling of the questionnaire or carrying out
    of personal interview with heads of the
    organizations
  • not less than 10 the selective control of a
    survey conducting
  • visual and logic control of the source information

CRC
33
Pilot services surveys coverage of economic
activities
Economic activities Sections Subsections Number of units
Total 4230
Hotels and restaurants H 55 237
Land transport I 60 170
Travel agencies and tour operators I 63.3 505
Financial intermediation J 65, 66, 67 348
Real estate activities K 70 597
Computer and related activities ? 72 490
Research and development ? 73 265
Other business activities ? 74 125
Education M 80 375
Health and social work N 85 468
Recreational, cultural and sporting activities ? 92 350
Other services activities O 93 300
CRC
34
Pilot services surveys sample design
  • Sample size 4230 observation units
  • Organizations realizing commercial activity only
  • Organization size were no limited (for reason of
    there being a lot of small-scale enterprises in
    services)
  • Sample
  • zoned on 8 federal districts
  • multivariate
  • stratified
  • representative at every level
  • probabilistic method observation units selection
    in everyone stratum
  • sample basis an information file of the Uniform
    state register of the enterprises and the
    organizations conducted by Rosstat

CRC
35
Pilot services surveys indicators system
  • Unified questionnaire for all organizations
  • Basic indicators (level, tendencies and
    expectations) include harmonized indicators
    recommended by Eurostat and OECD and used for
    confidence indicators calculating
  • Special questions blocks about specific
    activities in questionnaires for
  • Travel agencies
  • IT-sector organizations
  • Education institutions
  • Health organizations
  • Major factors negatively influencing
    organizations activity

CRC
36
  • All information is qualitative
  • A 3-option ordinal scale is used for the
    estimation of indicators of changes
  • increased (improved) ()
  • remain unchanged ()
  • decreased (deteriorated) ()
  • For estimation of current condition, the actual
    situation is compared with a normal (usual)
    level
  • more than sufficient ()
  • sufficient ()
  • not sufficient ()
  • Services confidence indicator is calculated in
    main kinds of economic activities as the
    arithmetic average of the balances of answers to
    the questions
  • recent evolution of business situation
  • recent evolution of demand
  • expected evolution of demand

CRC
37
Services confidence indicators in January -
June, 2010
CRC
38
Factors negatively influencing services activity
Share of the organizations from their total
number,
CRC
39
  • Thank you
  • for the attention!

CRC
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