Neorealism

1
(No Transcript)
2
Neorealism

• What are the three main features of neorealism?
• What is the main IV for neorealists? DV?
• What are the three types of systems?

3
Balancing Game

• 2 volunteers
• States are given a power number
• Your main goal, is what neorealists would expect
• Eliminate other states if you can safely do so
• If you fight, the state with the higher power
  number wins, but you subtract the weaker states
  power number from the stronger state to get the
  post-war power of the stronger
• P1 151, P2 149
• 3 more volunteers
• P1 75, P2 74, P3 75, P4 74, P5 2

4
The Effect of Uncertainty

• Uncertainty could be a good thing (balanced
  systems wont fight because neither side is very
  confident it can win)
• AND/OR uncertainty could be a bad thing
  (conflict happens when both side believe they
  have a good chance of winning)
• Neorealists developed this logic thinking of the
  system. Can we apply the same thinking at other
  levels of analysis?

5
WWWD (what would Waltz do)

• If we went to Kenneth Waltz and asked him for
  advice on how to promote stability in the world
  today, what would he say?
• Do you agree?

6
The security Dilemma

• Anything that can be used for defense, can
  probably be used for offense
• Anything that can be used for defense, can make
  you immune to deterrence
• The dilemma is that the outcome is sub-optimal
  for both sides! In other words, a conflict
  occurred that neither party wanted
• How does this happen?

7
Prisoners Dilemma

• Lets play!
• You can cooperate or defect (cheat)
• If you both cooperate, you both get 5 points
• If you both defect, you both get 1 point
• If one cooperates and one defects, the one who
  cooperated gets 0 points and the one who cheated
  gets 8 points

8
Prisoners Dilemma
P2
Cooperate Defect
5,5 0,8
8,0 1,1
Cooperate
P1
Defect
9
Anarchy and Conflict

• Fearon (not necessarily thinking about systems)
  gives an explanation for how anarchy causes
  conflict
• Fearon points out that war is ALWAYS a
  sub-optimal outcome (because it is ex-post
  inefficient)
• So why does conflict happen?
• PRIVATE INFORMATION

10
Private Information

• Private information is anything I know that you
  dont
• My power
• My plans/strategy
• My intentions
• My beliefs about the outcome
• Because I may have incentives to lie, you can
  never know whether or not I am telling the truth
• So in a game of PD, I may want to cooperate, and
  I may tell you that I will cooperate so you will
  too. But I might also tell you I plan on
  cooperating to trick you into cooperating so I
  can defect and sucker you
• So how can we achieve mutual cooperation?

11
Change the Payoffs
P2
Cooperate Defect
9,9 0,8
8,0 1,1
Cooperate
P1
Defect
12
Shadow of the Future

• This follows that same logic as changing payoffs,
  but instead of making cooperation more beneficial
  in the present, it uses the promise of future
  cooperation as an incentive
• How can this be accomplished in the real world?

13
The Number of Players

• The more players are involved, the more difficult
  coordination and communication is
• The more players are involved, the more likely
  someone will defect
• The more players are involved, the more difficult
  it is to punish defectors (free rider problem)
• Is this DEP?
• Does this suggest any practical policy
  implications?

14
Some Discussion

• Is anarchy really what states make of it?
• What does Wendt mean?
• What would Waltz respond?
• What do you think?