THE IMPACTS OF WEATHER FORECASTS ON

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THE IMPACTS OF WEATHER FORECASTS ON MILITARY
OPERATIONS  A SYSTEM FOR CONDUCTING
QUANTITATIVE NEAR-REAL TIME ANALYSES
LCDR R. Alex Cantu1, LCDR Mark Butler2, Tom
Murphree2, Matthew Young1, and AG1 (AW/SW) Marcus
Warren1 1 Naval Pacific Meteorology and
Oceanography Detachment Fallon 2 Naval
Postgraduate School Part of an RTP Project
Funded by ONR and SPAWAR BACIMO Conference,
October 2005
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• Goals
• Develop and implement a web based METOC metrics
• system that
• 1. Collects and analyze data on
• the performance of METOC forecasts
• the impacts of forecasts on customer mission
  planning and execution
• Provides near real-time analyses of data and
  delivery of metrics reports to METOC units and
  their operational customers
• Allows METOC units to quantitatively assess their
  performance and impacts, but with minimal
  increase in work load
• Allows operators (e.g., planners, pilots) to
• assess relevance of forecast to mission planning
• identify relationships between their performance
  and weather conditions

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• Challenges in Developing a
• METOC Metrics Program
• Collecting Data
• What METOC data to collect?
• What customer data to collect?
• How much work will it take to collect needed
  data, and who will do the work?
• Will customers provide data?
• Analyzing Data
• What metrics should be calculated?
• How should METOC and customer data be compared?
• Who has the expertise and time to analyze the
  data?
• 3. Using Metrics
• Metrics useful to METOC units
• Metrics useful to operators
• Timely delivery of metrics reports

4

• Approach
• Develop collaboration between Naval Postgraduate
  School (NPS) and Naval Pacific Meteorology and
  Oceanography Detachment Fallon (NPMOD) to create
  a web based METOC metrics system
• Build on Hinz (2004) and Jarry (2005) projects
• Data Collected
• forecast and verifying observational data
• operator planning and execution data
• 4. Data Analyses
• forecast performance
• operational impacts of forecasts

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NSAWC Planning Cycle and METOC Inputs
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Metrics System Data Flow
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http//wx.met.nps.navy.mil/metrics/
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Data Collection at NAS Fallon
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Data Collection at NAS Fallon
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Data Collection at NAS Fallon
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Data Collection at NAS Fallon
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Data Collection at NAS Fallon
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• Results
• Key results delivered immediately after data has
  been
• entered.
• Three results categories
• Operational Impacts
• Weather Phenomena That Caused Negative Impacts
  During Mission
• Forecast Performance
• Focus of this project development of web based
• system for data collection, analysis, and
  reporting.
• In depth assessments of performance and impacts
  will
• be possible once sufficient amounts of data have
  been
• collected.

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• Operational Impacts Metrics
• Missions or Weapons Saved missions or weapons
  that avoided a negative impact by changing
  mission plans in response to METOC
  recommendations.
• Missions Weapons Potentially Saved missions
  and weapons that were negatively impacted by
  weather, but which could have avoided these
  impacts by changing mission plans in response to
  METOC recommendations.
• Mission Planning Changes changes in schedule or
  weapons plans due to forecasts
• Negative Impacts From Mission Weather delays
  cancellations, and impacts on tactics, weapons
  use, hitting targets, etc. due to actual weather
  during mission

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Missions / Weapons Saved or Potentially Saved
Number of Missions Analyzed 49 Number of
Missions Negatively Impacted by Weather
26 Percentage of Missions Negatively Impacted by
Weather 53
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Negative Impacts From Mission Weather
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Weather Phenomena That Caused Negative Impacts
During Mission
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• Summary and Recommendations
• System operationally implemented to support
• NSAWC airwing training.
• Incorporate additional operator data collection
  and analysis requests
• Develop similar systems for other types of METOC
  support
• Implement system with fleet operators
• Adapt system to work with other DoD units ---
  work underway by Maj Karen Darnell, NPS, to adapt
  system for USAF Air Combat Command
• Centralize process at NPS
• standardization of data and results
• efficiency
• IT21 restrictions

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References Butler, M., LCDR, USN, 2005. The
Impacts of Weather Forecasts on Military
Operations A System for Conducting Quantitative
Near Real-Time Analyses. Masters of Science
Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School. Advisor T.
Murphree. Contact Information LCDR R. Alex
Cantu Ruben.Cantu_at_navy.mil 775-426-2421
(voice) Dr. Tom Murphree murphree_at_nps.edu 831-656
-2723 (voice)
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Backup Slides
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METOC METRIC REPORT FOR ALL AIRWINGS (APR-AUG
2005) EXAMPLE BASED ON FICTITIOUS DATA
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How Often Weather Impacted NSAWC Strike Training
Events

Number Percent 1. Events In This Study
49 2. Events/Percent Impacted By Weather (all)
26 53 3. Events/Percent Impacted By
Weather (operational) 13 26 Eliminates
impacts caused only by training rules
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What Weather Impacted NSAWC Strike Training Events

All With No Training Limits Excessive
Surface Wind 5 19 5 38 Excessive
Winds Aloft 0 0 0 0 Altitude
Restrictions 4 15 0 0 Cloud
Thickness/Layers 13 50 8 61
Reduced Surface Vis (FRTC) Dust 0 0
0 0 Fog 0 0 0 0
Precipitation 7 27 0 0
Haze/Smoke 0 0 0 0
26 Events 13 Events
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How Weather Impacted NSAWC Strike Training Events
All With No Training Limits No
Impacts 23 47 23 47 Total
Event Delayed/Rescheduled 2 4 2
4 Entire event canceled 7 14
7 14 Weather Recon Flown 16 32
NA Low war 2 4 NA High war
9 18 NA Split war 5 10 NA Non
strike aircraft did not complete 2 4 2
4 Bomber did not drop 4 8 4
8 Bombs missed target 0 0
0 0 Other partial mission 0
0 0 0
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Forecaster Impact to NSAWC Strike Mission
Planning (Most Significant change made during
team planning as a result of forecasted weather)
Number Percent No changes required
37 76 Event Delayed/Rescheduled 5 10
Weapons change for High Winds 1 2 Weapon
changed for visibility/ceiling 6 12 Other
0 0
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Forecaster Accuracy to NSAWC Strike Mission
Planning
Number Percent No changes were
required during team planning. .27 57
Weather forecasted correct. Change was correct
decision. 9 19 Weather forecasted
correct. Mission planner believed accurate
forecast but made no change due to training
requirements . 9 19 Weather forecasted
correct. Mission planner did NOT believe
forecast and made no change.. 0
0 Weather forecast wrong. Change was
unnecessary. Forecast falsely steered mission
plan to be over conservative 0 0 Weather
forecast wrong. Change was required as the
weather impact was greater than
forecasted.. 0 0 Weather forecast
wrong. Mission planner correctly ignored the
bad forecast... 0 0 Not enough
information to know if decision was good or
bad. 1 2 Other 1 2
100
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Forecaster Take-Off Weather Accuracy (5 Hour
Forecast)
Number Percent Winds Forecast
45 92 Winds gt Forecast 0 0 Winds lt
Forecast 4 8 Ceiling Forecast 40 82
Ceiling gt Forecast 1 2 Ceiling lt
Forecast 8 16 Visibility Forecast 49
100 Visibility gt Forecast 0 0
Visibility lt Forecast 0 0
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TAWS Accuracy
ATFLIR MFV TAWS Prediction 14 29 ATFLIR
MFV gt TAWS Prediction 2 4 ATFLIR MFV lt
TAWS Prediction 0 0 Nighthawk NFV TAWS
Prediction 14 29 Nighthawk NFV gt TAWS
Prediction 2 4 Nighthawk NFV lt TAWS
Prediction 0 0
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TAWS Impact to NSAWC Strike Mission
Planning (Most Significant change made during
team planning as a result of forecasted weather)
No changes required. There is no
forecast impact to the sensor. 2 No changes
required. Possible IR Sensor impact for
visibility/ceiling noted earlier. 3
Mission change for thermal crossover. 0
Attack heading change per TAWS ranges
prediction. 0 Other 1
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THE IMPACTS OF WEATHER FORECASTS ON MILITARY
OPERATIONS  A SYSTEM FOR CONDUCTING QUANTITATIVE
NEAR-REAL TIME ANALYSES LCDR R. Alex Cantu1,
LCDR Mark Butler2, Tom Murphree2, Matthew Young1,
and AG1 (AW/SW) Marcus Warren1 1 Naval Pacific
Meteorology and Oceanography Detachment Fallon 2
Naval Postgraduate School Abstract We have
developed, tested, and implemented a web based
system for collecting and analyzing in near-real
time weather forecast and observational data to
assess (a) the performance of forecasts and (b)
the operational impacts of forecasts. A major
goal of the system is to quantify the impacts of
weather forecasts on the planning, execution, and
outcomes of military operations. Our initial
tests and implementation are focused on the METOC
support provided by Naval Pacific Meteorology and
Oceanography Detachment (NPMOD) Fallon to Naval
Strike and Air Warfare Center (NSAWC) operations
at Naval Air Station (NAS) Fallon. In this
application of the system, METOC and NSAWC data
are collected by NPMOD Fallon personnel and
entered via a web interface into a database at
the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) where the
data are analyzed and results are reported in
near-real time. The results include quantitative
assessments of (1) forecasts used in planning
NSAWC missions (e.g., forecast accuracy,
probability of detection) (2) changes made
during mission planning in response to forecasted
weather (e.g., changes in mission schedule,
targets, weapons, tactics) (3) deviations from
mission plans that occurred during missions in
response to weather conditions actually
encountered by air crews (e.g., changes in
targets, weapons delivered, tactics) (4)
positive and negative impacts on mission
planning, execution, and outcomes due to
forecasts (e.g., missions that avoided or
incurred delays, cancellations, inappropriate
weapons loadouts, missions that might have
avoided problems had the forecast been followed
by mission planners) (5) METOC Tactical Decision
Aid forecast accuracy and mission impacts (e.g.,
TAWS WOF accuracy, weather impacts on weapon
sensors) and (6) forecast performance and
mission impacts with respect to specific weather
factors (e.g., surface and aloft winds, dust,
fog). In this presentation, we will give an
overview of the system, review the data
collection method, present sample results, and
discuss plans for additional testing and
implementation of the system.