NCEP Chemistry Modeling Overview and Status (With a focus on NEMS AQ development)

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NCEP Chemistry Modeling Overview and
Status(With a focus on NEMS AQ development)
Sarah Lu NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling
Center
with acknowledgments to many colleagues and
collaborators
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Acknowledgments

• EMC AQ group Jeff McQueen, Ho-Chun Huang, Youhua
  Tang, Dongchul Kim, Marina Tsidulko, Caterina
  Tassone
• EMC UMIG group Mark Iredell, Henry Juang,
  Shrinivas Moorthi, Tom Black, Jun Wang, Weiyu
  Yang, Ratko Vasic, Ed Colon
• EMC GMB Yu-Tai Hou, Suranjana Saha, Fanglin Yang,
  Xu Li, Jesse Meng, Yuejian Zhu, Jongil Han, John
  Ward
• EMC GSI group John Derber, Russ Treadon, Daryl
  Kleist, Haixia Liu
• CPC Craig Long, Shuntai Zhou
• NWS OST Paula Davidson, Ivanka Stajner
• OAR ARL Daewon Byun, Pius Lee, Roland Draxler,
  Ariel Stein, Hsin-Mu Lin, Daiwen Kang, Daniel
  Tong, Shao-cai Yu
• GSFC Arlindo da Silva, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl
• EPA Ken Schere, Rohit Mathur, Jon Pleim
• Howard University Everette Joseph, William
  Stockwell
• NESDIS Shobha Kondragunta, Quanhua Liu, Yong Han,
  Brad Pierce

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Extensive chemistry modeling efforts within NOAA
Research Laboratories (e.g., ESRL, ARL, GFDL) and
NESDIS.
Comparison of RAQMS OMITES reanalysis with IONS
ozonesondes (373 sondes, August, 2006)
PI ANNE M. THOMPSON Penn State
The TESOMI assimilation results in significant
reductions in column, tropospheric (gt100mb), and
stratospheric (lt100mb) biases (all less then
1) However, the low tropospheric biases are the
result of compensating errors in the upper and
lower troposphere.
Tropospheric biases /- 20
Brad Pierce (NESDIS/STAR)
Fishman, J et al., Remote Sensing of
Tropospheric Pollution from Space, BAMS June
2008 Pierce et al. Impacts of background ozone
production on Houston and Dallas, TX Air Quality
during the TexAQS field mission, Accepted
JGR-Atmospheres, February, 2009
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Outline

• NCEP current weather-air quality capabilities
• National AQ Forecast Capability
• Global ozone assimilation
• NCEP RD activities
• National Environmental Modeling System
• NEMS Interactive atmosphere-chemistry modeling
• Proposed enhancements
• Impact of dynamic lateral BCs on AQ forecasts
• Impact of aerosols on weather forecasts
• Conclusions

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• NCEP Current Weather-AQ Capabilities

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National Air Quality Forecast Capability
End-to-End Operational Capability

• Model Components Linked numerical prediction
  system
• Operationally integrated on NCEPs supercomputer
• NCEP mesoscale NWP WRF-NMM
• NOAA/EPA community model for AQ CMAQ
• Observational Input
• NWS weather observations NESDIS fire locations
• EPA emissions inventory

• Gridded forecast guidance products
• On NWS servers www.weather.gov/aq and
  ftp-servers
• On EPA servers
• Updated 2x daily
• Verification basis, near-real time
• Ground-level AIRNow observations
• Satellite smoke observations
• Customer outreach/feedback
• State Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA
• Public and Private Sector AQ constituents
• Website monitoring

Paula Davidson (NWS OST)
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Expansion of coverage
265 grid cells
142 grid cells
142
Northeast US 1x Domain Sept 04
259 grid cells

• CONUS 5x Domain
• OPS AQFC Sept. 07
• EXP AQFC/CB05 June. 08
• DEV AQFC/CB05-AERO-4

Eastern 3x Domain Sept 05
268 grid cells
442 grid cells
Jeff McQueen (EMC)
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NCEP Air Quality Forecast Verification
http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq
8 h Avg Ozone Obs vs Fcst
Production
Experimental
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Bias (ppb)
Bias (ppb)
-10
Almost the same for NW and Mid West Higher for
NE, SE and Low Miss Valley (increase positive
bias) Higher for SW (improve negative bias)
Jeff McQueen (EMC)
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Global Ozone Assimilation in GSI

• Why assimilate ozone
• Ozone forecasts
• UV Index Forecasts
• Air Quality Forecasts
• Needed for assimilating radiances from IR
  instruments (eg. HIRS, AIRS) where ozone
  influences the accuracy of determining
  temperatures.
• Parameterized ozone physics in GFS
• Production and destruction are parameterized from
  monthly and zonal mean dataset derived from NRL
  2D ozone chemistry model
• Current and future ozone products to be
  assimilated at NCEP
• GFS currently assimilating only NOAA-17 SBUV/2
  (nadir obs)
• Probable data update to NOAA-18 and possible for
  NOAA-19
• OMI and GOME-2 total ozone being tested in
  parallel
• offers greater horizontal and latitudinal
  coverage
• NRT MLS ozone profile product is being evaluated.
• OMPS (NPP and NPOESS)

Craig Long (CPC)
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Total Ozone Analysis Improvements by Assimilating
OMI TOz in addition to SBUV/2
More Structure
Tighter Gradients
Craig Long and Shuntai Zhou (CPC)
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• An Overview of National Environmental Modeling
  System (NEMS)

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National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)

• Unified Modeling Infrastructure Group, led by
  Mark Iredell

• Earth Science Modeling Framework (ESMF)
• http//www.esmf.ucar.edu
• NEMS atmosphere
• Write history and Post processor
• Nesting
• Aerosols and Chemistry
• Land
• Ocean, waves and sea ice
• Ionosphere
• Ensemble
• Data assimilation

NCEP UMIG group routinely meets with GSD and GFDL
groups
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NEMS Atmosphere
Color Key
Atmosphere
Generic Component
Generic Coupler
unified atmosphere Including digital filter
Completed Instance
Under Development
Future Development
Dynamics
Physics
Chemistry
Dyn-Phy Coupler

NMM-B
NAM Phy
ARW
GOCART
do nada
Spectral
GFS Phy
FVCORE
AQF chem
FIM
FISL
Navy
reduced chemistry
Navy
adjoints

• The goal is one unified atmospheric component
  that can invoke multiple dynamics and physics.
• At this time, dynamics and physics run on the
  same grid in the same decomposition, so the
  coupler literally does nothing.
• FY2010 operational implementation for NEMS NMM-B

Mark Iredell (EMC)
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Developing an interactive atmosphere-chemistry
forecast system

• In-line chemistry advantage
• Consistent no spatial-temporal interpolation,
  same physics parameterization
• Efficient lower overall CPU costs
• Easy data management
• Allows for feedback to meteorology
• Requirements
• Meteorology and chemistry should be initialized
  with GSI
• Conform to NCO CCS computer architecture
• Conform to NCO software I/O standards
  (GRIB/BUFR)
• NEMS AQ development
• NMM-B Chem (using CB05)
• In support of regional AQF system
• GFS coupled with GOCART
• Potential for improving weather forecasts (by
  improving aerosol-radiation feedback in GFS and
  atmospheric correction in GSI)
• Providing LBCs for regional AQF aerosol
  predictions

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• NEMS Tracer Experiments
• NMM-B and GFS

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NEMS NMM-B tracer experiment
Youhua Tang (EMC)
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NEMS GFS tracer experiment
Change in total mass loading (scaled by initial
values)
IC 2009/01/01 00Z
-1.37 ? 0.03 (diffusion off)
GB EAS WAF SAM NAM
GLB_SFC GLB_UTLS GLB_ALL
T62 L64 30-day experiments CTR, CLD (Ferrier
cloud microphysics), DYN (Adiabatic), SAS
(Simplified Arakawa-Schubert convection), TVD
(Flux-limited vertical advection)
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Zonal mean cross section for SAM_SFC SAM_UTLS
(IC20090101)Flux-limited vertical advection
reduces (but does not eliminate) negative tracer
values
NEMS GFS tracer experiment
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• Global aerosol forecast and analysis system
  (GFS-GOCART)

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Global aerosol forecast and analysis system
Goal Improving weather and air quality forecasts
by incorporating prognostic aerosols in GFS and
assimilating global aerosol information in GSI
via NCEP-NASA/GSFC-Howard University
collaborations
MODIS fire emissions
Regional AQF
Emissions
Global forecast and analysis system
Dynamic LBCs
Modeling
GOCART
Atmos. Correction
SST Analysis
Data Assimilation
Algorithm
Color key
Validation
NASA obs and tech
ROSE project
Various datasets AERONET, OMI, CALIPSO
Satellite data
NCEP DSSs
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Global aerosol forecast and analysis
system(-contd)

• Multiple, complementary approaches
• On-line systems including GOCART
• GFS/GOCART new capability being developed
• GEOS-5/GOCART NASA/GMAO real-time system
• GFSGEOS-5/GOCART Hybrid model (GEOS-5 dynamics
  GFS physics)
• Off-line GOCART CTM
• Driven by GFS meteorology
• Phased development
• Development of prototype system
• Transition to real time system
• Transition to operational production
• Prototype system extended to include ozone
  chemistry (if resources available)
• Transition to NCEPs climate system (if resources
  available)

NEMS/GFS-GOCART
Dust-only offline GFS-GOCART
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http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/dkim/web/html/
dust_day.html
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Challenges for incorporating chemistry component
into NEMS GFS

• Resources !! Code optimization needed
• The inclusion of 15 passive tracers leads to 45
  increase in wall time
• The 3d atmosphere file sizes increased by the
  factor of 2.4-2.7
• Needed capabilities
• Convective transport (under testing for RAS)
• Tracer scavenging
• Positive definite advection with mass conserving

The chemistry modeling efforts will lead to
scientific advances and technical upgrades in the
NEMS
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Proposed Enhancements

• NOAA medium range weather forecasts
• Climatology-based aerosol distributions are used
  in the GFS and background aerosol conditions are
  assumed in the GSI Community Radiative Transfer
  Model (CRTM)
• Global aerosol products will improve the
  representation of aerosol distributions and
  variations within the GFS/GSI system
• NOAA air quality forecasts
• Default static boundary conditions are used for
  the developmental aerosol air quality predictions
  
• Global aerosol products will provide improved
  aerosol lateral boundary conditions for the AQF
  system and, consequently, improve AQF aerosol
  forecasts

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• The impact of aerosols on medium range weather
  forecasts

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Climate Forecast System (CFS)GFS coupled with
GFDL MOM3
U-wind Cross Section at 10W
OPAC climo.
GOCART climo.
The intensity and location of African Easterly
Jet are affected by background aerosol loading
(via direct radiative effect)
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RMS errors of NH temp for 00Z forecasts
RMSE increased
Pressure
RMSE reduced
Forecast hours
GDAS experiments with different aerosol
representations T126 L64 PRC (climatology) vs
PRG (time varying)
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North America temperature verification
Climo.
Time- varying
Temperature biases reduced by 10 in lower
atmosphere
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• The impact of lateral boundary conditions on air
  quality forecasts

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Ozone Lateral Boundary Conditions Tests
Obs (IONS), Fixed, RAQMS, MOZART, GFS-O3
Youhua Tang (EMC)
Tang et al., The impact of chemical lateral
boundary conditions on CMAQ predictions of
tropospheric ozone over the continental United
States, Environmental Fluid Mechanics, 2008
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Aerosol Lateral Boundary Conditions Tests
Trans-Atlantic dust Transport

• During Texas Air Quality Study 2006, the model
  inter-comparison team found all 7 regional air
  quality models missed some high-PM events, due to
  trans-Atlantic Saharan dust storms.
• These events are re-visited here, using dynamic
  lateral aerosol boundary conditions provided from
  dust-only off-line GFS-GOCART.

Youhua Tang and Ho-Chun Huang (EMC)
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In Conclusion

• NCEP is developing NEMS as next-generation
  weather forecast system
• NEMS R D efforts continue in interactive
  atmosphere-chemistry modeling system
• NMM-B coupled with CB05
• GFS coupled with GOCART
• NCEP modeling efforts leverage common modeling
  framework (ESMF), shared software development
  (via NOAA-NASA-DOD JCSDA), and research
  collaborations, such as
• GSI ozone and aerosol data assimilation working
  group (EMC AQ group)
• Co-Ops Biomass Burning Emission Committee (Jeff
  Reid and Shobha Kondragunta)
• AeroCOM (Michael Shulz, Stefan Kinne, and Mian
  Chin)
• GEMS/MACC community

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• THANK YOU