Examination of the Mitigation Sections of the Initial Communications

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Examination of the Mitigation Sections of the
Initial Communications
The CGE Global Hands-on Training Workshop on
Mitigation AssessmentsSeoul, Republic of Korea,
2630 September 2005
Thematic Group on MitigationConsultative Group
of Experts (CGE)
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Background

• Guidelines for the preparation of initial
  communications by parties not included in Annex I
  to the Convention (Annex to decision 17/CP.8)
• Reporting on climate change User manual for the
  guidelines on national communications from
  Non-Annex I Parties
• Decision 3/CP.8, Terms of Reference, paragraph 9
• 31 NCs from NAI Parties were examined

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List of national communications
Africa Benin Burkina Faso Cameroon Central Africa Republic Comoros Djibouti Eritrea Gabon (French) Gambia Guinea (French) Kenya Madagascar (French) Malawi Mauritania (French) Namibia Nigeria South Africa Sudan Swaziland Uganda Tanzania Zambia Asia and the Pacific Bangladesh Cambodia China (Chinese) DPRK India Iran Kyrgyzstan Nepal Pakistan Palau Solomon Islands Tajikistan Viet Nam Latin America and the Caribbean Belize Brazil Dominican Republic Trinidad Tobago Total 42 NCs Exam. 31 NCs Others Albania Malta The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
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Criteria for examination
1 Social and economic development framework for climate change mitigation
2 Main national economic and social development trends, including expected GHG emissions
3 Approaches used to conduct mitigation analysis, e.g., top-down or bottom-up
4 Tools/models and methods used to assess mitigation, sectors analyzed, data and/or information gaps, and limitations of the technical resources
5 Identification of mitigation options related to the most important future sources and sinks sectors
6 Screening of mitigation options
7 Assessment of reduction potential and cost of mitigation
8 Integration of GHG reductions and costs across measures and sectors, through the construction of GHG mitigation marginal cost curves
9 Qualitative description of main macroeconomic impacts of national climate change mitigation strategies
10 Assessment of key macroeconomic parameters
11 Barriers and opportunities for implementation
12 Programs and measures implemented or planned that contribute to mitigate climate change
13 Projects aimed at reducing GHG emissions and enhancing the removal by sinks
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Summary of examination

• The scope, coverage and depth of reports vary
  significantly among Parties.
• Information that many Parties elaborated well
  include
• Social and economic development framework for
  climate change mitigation
• Identification of mitigation options related to
  the most important future sources and sinks
  sectors
• Barriers and opportunities for implementation
• Programs and measures implemented or planned that
  contribute to mitigate climate change

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Summary of examination

• Information that many Parties didnt elaborate
  well include
• Tools/models and methods used to assess
  mitigation, sectors analyzed, data and/or
  information gaps, and limitations of the
  technical resources
• Integration of GHG reductions and costs across
  measures and sectors, through the construction of
  GHG mitigation marginal cost curves
• Qualitative description of main macroeconomic
  impacts of national climate change mitigation
  strategies
• Assessment of key macroeconomic parameters

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Mitigation assessment

• Most Parties provided general information on the
  social and economic development framework for CC
  mitigation
• Several Parties showed the main national economic
  and social trends, including GHG emission outlook
• Time horizon 2010, 2020, 2030 or
  2100(Kyrgyzstan)
• Many Parties provided only historical trends
• No GHG emission forecast by many Parties

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Technical resources for mitigation analysis

• Major approach bottom-up
• Both B-U and T-D approaches by some Parties
  (India, Brazil)
• Tools/models and methods
• Major tools LEAP and COMAP
• MAKAL, EFOM, COPATH used by several Parties
• Some Parties addressed the problem of lack of data

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Baseline, mitigation scenarios and projections

• Major parts that most Parties had difficulties in
  elaborating the information
• Identification and screening of mitigation
  options relative well elaborated by many Parties
• Many Parties didnt provide any results on
  assessment of reduction potential and cost of
  mitigation
• No GHG mitigation marginal cost curve by
  integration of GHG reductions and costs across
  measures and sectors
• Tanzania MC curves for energy and forestry
  sectors for 2030
• No macroeconomic assessment for mitigation options

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Barriers and opportunities for implementation

• Most Parties elaborated challenges/limitations
  well and described needs of financial and
  technical supports, capacity building, etc.

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Implications and Recommendations

• Technical difficulties in analyzing mitigation
  potentials, costs and macroeconomic impacts
• Technical support and capacity building for
  mitigation analysis needed for preparation of the
  informative second and where appropriate third
  NCs
• Heavy data requirement
• Standardization of time period for GHG emission
  projection and mitigation assessment

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Problems to solve Further works by CGE

• Completion of examination for all 42 NCs
• Cross check of examination results by thematic
  group members
• Scope of report
• 10/CP.2 refers only to programs containing
  measures to address climate change
• 17/CP.8 User manual not for the initial
  communication
• Thematic group 10/CP.2 including information
  which are not required by 10/CP.2, but provided.