DECISION SCIENCES CERTIFICATE PROGRAM

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DECISION SCIENCES CERTIFICATE PROGRAM

• BASIS STATISTICS
• BUSINESS CALCULUS
• Quantitative Business Analysis
• ----PLUSTWO ELECTIVES---------
• BUS 191 DECISION ANALYSIS
• BUS 196D DATA MINING

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POTENTIAL ELECTIVES

• STATISTICS II
• Quantitative Methods for Supply Chain PLANNING
• DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
• FINANCIAL ENGINEERING

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BUS 191 DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTYDr.
Ron Davis

• BT 355 408-924-3547
• davis_r_at_cob.sjsu.edu
• www.cob.sjsu.edu/facstaff/davis_r/
• ron_at_mathproservices.com
• www.mathproservices.com

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Office Hours

• BT 355 [phone]
• MW 315-545pm Tue 245-545pm
• Online the night before exams in Elluminate
  Chatroom for BUS191

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PREREQUISITES

• MATH 70 Finite Math (optional)
• BUS 90 Business Statistics
• Equivalency Forms Signed

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REFERENCE TEXT

• MAKING HARD DECISIONS with DecisionTools by
  Robert Clemen/Terence Reilly
• The DecisionTools Suite from Palisade Corp.
• Course Reader Chapters

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TOPICS IN DECISION ANALYSIS

• PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
• Discrete
• Continuous
• UTILITY FUNCTIONS (Exponential)
• BASIC DECISION PROBLEM
• EVPI and CEVPI
• DECISION TREES AND BAYESIAN INVERSION
• EVSI and CEVSI
• INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS (Data Structures)
• SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
• RAINBOW DIAGRAMS
• TORNADO DIAGRAMS
• SOFTWARE ADD-INS from PALISADE CORP
• Case Studies

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EXCEL ADD-INS

• The DecisionTools Suite
• RISKview Distribution viewing tool
• BestFit Data Fitting with multiple
  distributions
• _at_RISK Risk analysis and Simulation
• PrecisionTree influence diagrams and decision
  trees
• TopRank What if sensitivity analysis tool
• RISKOptimizer optimization of simulation models

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BlackBoard WEB Course Technology

• http//sjsu6.blackboard.com
• WebCT account
• UserID Student ID with W in front
• Password spring (or your choice)
• BUS 191 will be in your course list

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Blackboard FEATURES

• Course Content
• Calendar
• eMail
• Bulletin Board
• Chat Room

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BASIS FOR GRADE

• Four Computer Projects
• 50 or 100 points each
• Data Analysis Best Fit
• Distribution Analysis RISKview
• Simulation - _at_Risk and RISKOptimizer
• Decision Analysis PrecisionTree and TopRank
• Three Exams
• MidTerms 1 2 150 points
• Final 250 points
• Extra Credit
• 10 URLS on OR/MS in use today
• 25 points per project

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EXTRA CREDIT ADJUSTMENT FORMULA

• ST Semester point Total
• EC Extra Credit point total
• SA Adjusted Score
• SA 850(STEC)/(850EC)
• SA computed in EXCEL not Blackboard
• Computations done in Excel, does not show in WebCT

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EXAM RULES

• CHEAT SHEETS ALLOWED
• One page notes each midterm
• Three pages for the final
• CHEATING NOT ALLOWED
• No talking until you leave the room
• No passing of papers back and forth
• No copying of answers from neighbor
• Sharing of points for identical answers

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HINTS FOR YOUR SUCCESS

• Use a three ring notebook binder
• Print stuff from the web
• Punch holes in your printout and store in your
  three ring binder
• Work all the practice problems
• Browse the web using search engines for extra
  credit points and related info

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TYPES OF DECISIONS
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DECISION QUALITY CHAIN
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DECISION QUALITY RATINGS
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DECISION PROCESS
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ORGANIZATIONAL DECISIONS