DoD Volcano

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DoD Volcano Ash Forecasting Perspectives,
Challenges, and Opportunities --2nd
International Conference on Volcano and Ash
Forecasting
Mr. Alan R. Shaffer June 21, 2004 Director,
Plans Programs Office Defense Research and
Engineering
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Operational Support System

• Air Force Weather Agency serves as DoD focal
  point for global volcanic ash cloud forecasts
  24/7 global coverage
• Text Bulletins
• Satellite Analysis
• Graphical Forecast Products
• Takes Advantage of Advanced MetSat Applications
  at Air Force Weather Agency
• Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Data
  Process and Handling Center
• Forecast based on PUFF Model
• PUFF is Advective Model using Point Source and
  Gridded Wind Fields
• Military Model can be run with higher resolution
  (45km grid vice 191-km)
• Navy Centers also issue tailored ash forecasts
  e.g. NEMOC issues routine Mt. Etna forecasts for
  Sigoniela, Italy
• Ash Forecast Driver Different for DoD compared to
  Commercial
• Mission vice Economic Drivers

For Official Use Only
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Operational Support System--Air Force Weather
Agency--

• AFWA Issues Graphic Problems as
  Requiredexample at right is the forecast for
  Tungurahua in Ecuador (June 17, 2004)
• Includes flight level, ash density
• Products updated dailyor more often if serious
  event occurs
• Also issue an animation product for forecast
  evolution over time

For Official Use Only
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Operational Support System--Air Force Weather
Agency--
18 June 0300Z
18 June 0600Z

• Expansion of panels for Tunguruhura, in Ecuador
  (June 17, 2004)
• Panel shows 3, 6 hour forecast over a
  altitude width
• For specialized missions, it is possible to
  provide high resolution tailored forecasts

For Official Use Only
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National Weather Service Product--VAFTAD--

• Basis is the Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport
  and Dispersion Model (VAFTAD)
• Investigating the ingestion of deep layer Navy
  NOGAPS model
• VAFTAD is advection / diffusion model
• 191 Km AVN fields
• Navy developing 45 km version using NOGAPS
  Sky-high model

For Official Use Only
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Operational DoD Text Bulletincs

• Issued by AGFWA

WEATHER BULLETINS FVAW1 KGWC 180000 GLOBAL
VOLCANIC ERUPTION SUMMARY BULLETIN VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS PAST 24 HOURS 1. EUROPE,
AFRICA, AND ICELAND (A) NONE. --FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION SEE CURRENT FVAF LFPW BULLETIN
2. AMERICAS (CANADA, CARIBBEAN, SOUTH
AMERICA) (A)VOLCANO TUNGURAHUA 1502-08 LOCATION
1.46S 78.44W AREA ECUADOR SUMMIT ELEVATION
16480 FT (5023 M)) ERUPTION DETAILS ERUPTION AT
17/1745Z. TRAJECTORY ASH/STEAM TO FL230 MOVG
WEST AT 15-20 KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE
FVXX KWBC BULLETIN 3. NORTH PACIFIC
(ALASKA, KAMCHATKA, JAPAN, PHILIPPINES)
(A)VOLCANO KARYMSKY 1000-13 LOCATION 54.05N
159.43E AREA KAMCHATKA SUMMIT ELEVATION 4874 FT
(1486 M) ERUPTION DETAILS ERUPTION REPORTED AT
17/2223Z. TRAJECTORY ASH TO FL090 MVG EAST AT
15-20KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVFE RJTD
BULLETIN 4. SOUTH PACIFIC (AUSTRALIA,
NEW ZEALAND, INDONESIA) (A) NONE. FOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND PUFF MODEL FORECASTS BASED ON GFS
DATA SEE HTTPS //WEATHER.AFWA.AF.MIL/ENVIRONMENT
AL(UNDERSCORE)EVENTS.HTML (LOWER-CASE ONLY).
PREPARED BY MARTINEZ Created 014859 Z on
Fri 18 Jun 2004.
For Official Use Only
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Current State of Supporting Research

• Air Force
• Air Force Does in-house development of products
  and graphics by Satellite Applications Branch
• Has supported the development of PUFF, with the
  University of Alaska Geophysics Institute
• AF Funded efforts included
• Creating the ability to ingest (high resolution)
  AFWA forecast model fields
• Developing graphical user interface
• Further Development not funded
• Navy Ingestion of NOGAPS Sky Hi (45km) fields
  into PUFF
• Army Jointly funded early University Partnering
  for Operational Support
• Other Applicable Research
• Sensing
• DoD spending 300M/year in advanced sensors and
  applicatrions, including advanced IR resolution
  and uncooled IR focal planes, as well as
  multispectral and hyperspectral sensors
• DoD again funding (minimally) seismology research
• Propulsion DoD investing 125M / year in
  Integrated High-Performance Turbine Engine
  Research including advanced componsites and
  metals

For Official Use Only
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PUFF Characteristics

• PUFF is used by Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory
  Center, Air Fore Weather Agency and University of
  Anchorage Volcanic Ash Advisory Center
• Deficiencies
• Detection
• Sensing initial ash eruption density
• Characterizing ash cloud density and distribution
  
• Plume Transport
• Characterizing upper level variability in wind
  field
• Integrating model with high resolution winds
• Future proposed research includes real time
  graphical user interface

For Official Use Only
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Research Opportunities

• Apply other DoD tools to Volcanic Ash model
• High Resolution Terrain Data Worldwide terrain
  / topographic data available at 100m post
  spacingmany areas 3 to 5 meters
• Novel Sensors
• Multi and Hyperspectral, Long Wave IR
• DoD experimenting with Hyperspectral high
  resolution
• Question Are there unique spectral
  characteristics in volcanic ash cloud?
• How does Met Community Leverage other
  opportunities?
• Navy SPY-1 Radar became solid weather radar for
  Navy Aegis Cruiser
• Use of multiple sensors

For Official Use Only
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Possible ApplicationHyperspectral Imagery
--Adaptive Spectral Reconnaissance Program--

• Hyperspectral detection of camouflaged and
  concealed mobile tactical vehicles
• Algorithm-based detection processing
• Detection-cued high resolution imagery

Actual Image Pending Security Review
Cued High-Resolution Image Chip
Output from SEM detection algorithm
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Possible ApplicationHyperspectral Imagery
--Adaptive Spectral Reconnaissance Program--
Algorithm Performance Comparison
Littoral Radiance II Camp Pendleton CA, June 14,
1997
Classification Map
Confusion Matrix (SAM)
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Hypersonic Sensors
Goes 12
For Official Use Only
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Research Questions
Goes 12
For Official Use Only
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Operational Support System--Navy Forecast
Philosophy--

• Navy Research Lab is investigating
  Improvement in the Volcanic Ash Forecast
  Transport and Dispersion Model (VAFTAD) and PUFF
• Investigating the ingestion of deep layer Navy
  NOGAPS model
• Again, Looking at higher resolution models

For Official Use Only