Partisan Change

1
Partisan Change

• GOVT 311 Lecture 6

2
Types of Surveys

• Cross-sectional conducted on one universe of
  people at one point in time
• Panel same group of people interviewed over
  time
• Panel attrition loss of respondents over course
  of survey

3
Voting Behavior of Partisans

• Strong Partisans are more loyal than weak
  partisans (F Z p.90)
• Overall defection rates of strong and weak
  partisans for presidential elections has remained
  constant with a small decrease in the 1990s.
  Partisans of both types have become more loyal.
• More partisans tend to defect towards the winning
  candidate, especially when there is an incumbent
  running in the election.

4
Partisan Voting

• In Congress, Democrats held an edge in
  defections, with more Republicans defecting to
  Democratic candidates, until the election of
  1994. (Flanigan and Zingale p.92)
• Why?

5
Are Independents Independent?

• Independents are more likely to vote in the
  direction of the winning presidential candidate
  (F Z p.96)
• Independents show more support for third party
  candidates
• A majority of Independents vote for partisan
  candidates, even when third party candidates are
  present in the election.

6
Partisan Turnout

• Strong Partisans are more likely to vote than
  weak partisans. Independents are the least
  likely to vote (F Z p.94)
• Strong Partisans have more interest in politics.

7
Partisan Change

• Period effects
• Generation effects
• Life-cycle effects
• (F Z p. 93)

8
Forecasting a Realigning Election

• Does an increase of independents among young
  voters presage a realigning election?

9
Partisan Change

• Partisanship is something learned as a
  consequence of great events that move everyone
  (period effect)
• Baseline Partisanship is learned when one becomes
  voting age (generation effect, E T p.152)
• Roaring 20s Republican
• Depression Democrats
• Sixties
• Protesters Democrats
• Non-Protestors Republicans
• Eighties Republican
• Nineties Democrats
• As one ages, partisanship changes (life-cycle
  effect)

10
Life-Cycle of Partisanship

• As people age, they become more Republican
  because of the air of respectability,
  conservatism, and social status (American Voter
  authors)
• Is this true?

11
Percent Self-Identified Republicans (Source ANES)
12
Percent Self-Identified Democrats (Source ANES)
13
What do children learn?

• Pre-school 75 of children able to answer what
  the policeman does. 10 could recognize the
  president. 60 recognize the U.S. flag.
• Early Childhood Children begin to become aware
  of government. Generally view it in a favorable
  and trusting light.
• Late Childhood Still very trusting of
  government, but some notion of what democracy is
  begins to emerge. Children begin to separate the
  people from the institutions, and begin to think
  in partisan terms.

14
What do children learn?

• Adolescence Junior high students begin to think
  like adults. Children develop ideology, and
  notions of political efficacy. They remain
  positive about the symbols and ideals of
  democracy, but are cynical to the people. In
  fact, during Clintons impeachment, youths age
  11-18 were more in favor of impeachment than
  adults.

15
Do Children learn from their Parents?

• Yes. Erikson and Tendin p.131.
• Also agree on policy issues (Erikson and Tedin p.
  121).
• Partisanship is transmitted from parents to
  children (Flanigan and Zingale p.105, 106).
• (Note there isnt a lot of current research in
  this area)

16
Do students learn politics in school?

• Yes. Without a doubt schools have been used time
  and again to politically socialize students, and
  to teach loyalty and obedience to the existing
  government order.
• Is this a good thing?

17
The College Experience

• College students tend to self-identify more
  liberal over time (E T p.145, 148).
• Are more liberal on issues (E T p.149).
• Professors are more liberal than students (E T
  p.147).

18
Social Network Theory

• The character of the contact is important. It
  must include a political message to affect
  political behavior.