USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS

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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
Introduction

• WAOB provides official government forecasts of
  agricultural commodities
• crop production, supply, and trade
• price forecasts
• U.S. livestock supply and use
• WAOB mission
• objectivity (unbiased information)
• reliability (sound data and analysis)
• timelines (fast flow to users)
• Numerous data sources consulted to determine
  meteorological impacts on crop progress and
  conditions

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USDAs Economic Intelligence System
World Agricultural Outlook Board
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
U.S. Exports as Percent of Production
Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans
78.1
Wheat
55.7
46.7
45.2
Soybean
34.4
20.3
Corn
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
U.S. Agricultural Trade
U. S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE
Fiscal Year, 1976 - 2003
Fiscal Year, 1976 - 2003
Billion Dollars
MMT
70
220
57.0
59.9
60
200
2003 Forecast
50
180
Exports in value
40
160
30
140
136.4
Bulk commodities exports in volume
20
120
109.1
10
100
0
80
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
Year
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
Introduction
World Wheat Ending Stocks U.S. Wheat Prices
Marketing Year, 1976 2002
World Ending Stocks
207.0
171.5
4.55
U.S. Wheat Price
3.55 - 3.65
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
U.S. Net Farm Income Direct Government Payments
1990 - 2003
44.9 2003 Forecast
54.8
Net Farm Income
22.9
17.6
Direct Government Payments
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
El Niño

• Below-normal precipitation is often observed in
  parts of Australia during El Niño episodes
• Satellite-derived sea-surface temperature data
  beneficial, providing an early warning of
  potential crop failure
• Historically, winter wheat yields are reduced in
  El Niño years, sometimes dramatically

Source NOAA/NWS/CPC http//www.cpc.noaa.gov/prod
ucts/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.html
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
Surface Weather Observations

• Surface weather observations confirmed the
  development of drought, helping to quantify
  precipitation and temperature anomalies in major
  crop producing areas

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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
Satellite Data

• Remote-sensing data corroborated these surface
  weather observations, providing additional
  insight on climate anomalies (e.g., spatial
  extent of drought) and local extreme events
  (e.g., dust storms)

Source NOAA/NWS/NCDC http//lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/se
rvlets/SSMIBrowser
Source NOAA/NESDIS/OSEI http//www.osei.noaa
.gov/Events/Dust/Australia/2002/DSTaust296_GM.jpg
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
Higher Resolution Satellite Data
Imagery illustrates better crop conditions in
2001 than in 2002
2002
2001
Northern New South Wales
Source PECAD
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
South Africa Corn Yields
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
South Africa Crop Weather Data
Vegetation conditions in eastern region are below
average
Source PECAD
Source PECAD
Source PECAD
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
Winterkill Analyses
Satellite-derived snow cover and surface
temperature observations analyzed snow cover
protects dormant winter grains from bitterly cold
weather in Russia
Russia
Ukraine
Source NOAA/NESDIS/SSD http//www.ssd.noaa.g
ov/PS/SNOW/DATA/LOOP/asia-1mo-loop.html
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
Tropical Cyclones

• Satellite imagery provides insight into the
  potential spatial extent of crop damage
  associated with land-falling tropical cyclones
• In this example, visible satellite imagery of
  Hurricane Kenna was imported into a GIS
• When such images are overlaid crop production and
  area data in a GIS, analysts can estimate storm
  impacts on crop progress and conditions

Imagery Source NOAA/NESDIS/SSD
http//www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
U.S. and South America Soybean Production
Source PECAD
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
BRAZIL Soybean Area Distribution
BRAZIL Vegetation Index Jan 31, 2003
Bolivia
Bolivia
Paraguay
Paraguay
Argentina
Argentina
Source PECAD
Source IBGE Brazil
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
Changes in Balance of First and Second Crops

• 82 of Argentinas soybean planted area is
  expected to be planted to first-crop soybeans in
  2002/03
• Average portion is 70
• First-crop soybean yields average 2.49 tons/ha
• Second-crop soybean yields average 1.92 tons/ha

Source SAGPyA, USDA
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
Changes in Crop Area
Landsat satellite imagery shows more area devoted
to summer crops in 2002/03
Source PECAD
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
Citrus Freeze
Surface temperature observations indicate the
potential for a damaging freeze in Florida citrus
areas
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
Citrus Freeze
Infrared satellite imagery can be used to show
detail in areas where surface observations are
not available
02 February 2003
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USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS
Wish List

• Provide near real time availability
• Develop new products, specifically those that
  quantify rather than qualify
• precipitation (values vs. wet or dry)
• surface air temperature (values vs. hot or
  cold)
• soil moisture/temperature
• snow cover/depth
• wind speed/direction
• Increase global coverage
• penetrate cloud cover
• expand country coverage
• Resolution, food for thought
• 32 km x 32 km (20 mi x 20 mi) would provide at
  least one measurement per county for most
  counties. Same density targeted by NOAA for
  Cooperative Observer Network.
• higher resolution needed for some specialty crops
• Develop data archive for purpose of establishing
  normals
• Establish user-friendly data formats/downloading
  procedures