Expert Opinion Technique

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Expert Opinion Technique

• Chapter 12

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Introduction

• Expert Opinion techniques involves consultation
  with experts, who use their experience and
  understanding of the system to arrive at an
  estimate of its cost.
• Only used when more objective techniques are not
  applicable
• Used to corroborate or adjust objective data
• Cross check historical based estimate
• Use for high level, low fidelity estimating
• Last resort

Tip Expert opinion is the least regarded and
most dangerous method, but it is seductively
easy. Most lexicons do not even admit it as a
technique, but it is included here for
completeness.
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Expert Opinion Advantages/Disadvantages

• Advantages
• An expert can factor in differences between past
  project experiences and new techniques,
  architectures or applications involved in the
  future project
• Good cross check of other estimate from Subject
  Matter Expert (SME) point of view
• Allows perspective to an estimate that may be
  overlooked without SME
• Disadvantages
• Expert judgment is only as good as the estimator,
  who has his own biases
• Completely subjective without use of other
  techniques
• Low-to-nil credibility

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Uses of Expert Opinion

• Business Forecasting
• Creating technological forecasts 10 to 20 years
  in the future.
• DoD uses this to estimate basic research funding.
• Estimating parameters for CERs
• Software lines of code
• Flying hours
• Deployment schedule
• Evaluating contractor proposals.
• Estimating cost relationships.
• Identifying and specifying cost drivers.

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What makes a good expert?

• Credibility!
• Someone who has the ear of the Program manager.
• You should use the same person that the program
  manager relies upon for the most critical
  information.
• Technical specialist or engineer who is
  knowledgeable about the program under question.

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What should you ask for?

• Technical, Schedule and Quantity information.
• What areas of the program are most volatile?
• What parameters are most likely to drive program
  costs?
• What are the analogous systems?
• Quantify relationships with factors.
• What are the inputs for CERs and cost models?
• Weight, power, performance, etc.
• What are the bounds of uncertainty associated
  with their estimates?
• Never ask for dollar estimates! That is the Cost
  Estimators job. Technical specialists are
  experts in technical parameters or program
  issues. It is the Cost Estimators job to
  translate these into cost estimates.

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Subjects to address with functional experts

• .
• Ground Rules and Assumptions - potential areas
  they believe will impact the basis of your
  estimate. They know what areas of the program
  are most volatile. Write down everyone they can
  list so no incorrect assumptions are made by
  anyone.
• Cost Drivers - identify which parameters are most
  apt to drive program costs. Not necessarily how
  much each drives cost but explores the
  influence of a variable.
• Analogous System and Related Factors - identify
  the closest system or subsystem to your program
  and quantify those relationships with a factor.
• Inputs to CERs and Cost Models - what are the
  technical parameters such as weight, power,
  performance characteristics, etc.
• Percent Complete - the functional specialists
  should be able to provide you with the estimate
  of how complete an in-process contract is. This
  will allow you to allocate the sunk costs to the
  percent complete and extrapolate for the
  remaining effort.
• Inputs to Risk and Sensitivity Analysis - inquire
  as to the range or bounds of uncertainty/risk
  associated with data they provide or the overall
  program.
• Inputs to Time Phasing Methodologies - have them
  identify key milestones and the percentage of
  effort associated with each one. This will help
  plot the outlay profile.

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What to know before starting...

• If you are requesting data to use in some CERs or
  models, you must know what those inputs mean.
• Weight in pounds or kilograms?
• Peak power or average power?
• Things to keep in mind as you approach a
  technical specialist for information.
• What specific information do you want to obtain?
• Is this the right person to ask?
• What are your specific questions?
• The art of communication!
• Keep in mind that anything can be misunderstood.

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How to obtain information

• It helps to be a good lawyer and a good
  detective.
• Ask clear, logical, probing questions.
• Never simply ask a question then just walk away,
  use the following approach
• Help the specialists think through their own
  answers.
• Do you mean?
• Would that be the same in another situation?
• Ask questions in more than one way.
• Clarification.
• Their answers might change based on a
  clarification question.
• Look for uncertainty in their answers.
• Was their response confident or reluctant?
• Evaluate the information obtained.
• Make sense? Could you explain it to someone
  else?