Sustainable Energy

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Sustainable Energy
Dr Wesam Al Madhoun
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Outline of Discussion

• Current and projected US and World energy
  consumption and supply by sector
• Carbon emissions and warming
• The nature of the options
• Cleaner fossil fuels
• Hydrogen, Fuel Cells
• Solar, Wind,
• Bio-fuels,
• Nuclear
• A proposed quantifiable solution set for near and
  long term mitigation of the threat

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Energy use grows with economic development
energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2002)
US
Australia
France
Russia
S. Korea
UK
Japan
Ireland
Greece
Malaysia
Mexico
China
Brazil
India
Source UN and DOE EIA
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energy demand growth projections
Global energy demand is set to grow by over 60
over the next 30 years 74 of the growth is
anticipated to be from non-OECD countries
Global Energy Demand Growth by Region (1971-2030)
Energy Demand (Mtoe)
Notes 1. OECD refers to North America, W.
Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and NZ
2. Transition Economies refers to FSU and
Eastern European nations 3.
Developing Countries is all other nations
including China, India etc.
Source IEA World Energy Outlook 2004
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growing dislocation of supply demand

• N. America, Europe and Asia Pacific are the three
  largest demand centres
• But, have a small share of the remaining oil and
  gas reserves coal is the exception
• Their collective shares are
• Oil - 80 of demand 15 of conventional reserves
  (28 incl. unconventional reserves)
• Gas 61 of demand 32 of reserves
• Coal 89 of demand 69 of reserves

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The Oil Problem
Nations that HAVE oil Nations that
NEED oil ( of Global Reserves) ( of
Global Consumption)
Saudi Arabia 26 Iraq 11 Kuwait 10 Iran 9 UA
E 8 Venezuela 6 Russia 5 Mexico
3 Libya 3 China 3 Nigeria 2 U.S. 2
U.S. 26 Japan 7 China 6 Germany 4 Russia 3
S. Korea 3 France 3 Italy 3 Mexico 3 Braz
il 3 Canada 3 India 3
Source EIA International Energy Annual
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Petroleum supply, consumption, and imports,
1970-2025 (million barrels per day)
60
71
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CO2 emissions and GDP per capita (1980-2002)
US
Australia
Russia
Ireland
UK
S. Korea
Japan
France
Greece
Malaysia
Mexico
China
Brazil
India
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CO2 Emissions and Climate
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Conclusions

• Ever-increasing reliance on foreign energy supply
  is a real and growing threat to national security
• The US can be energy independent within 10-15
  years and radically reduce greenhouse emissions
  in the process
• The solution seems straight forward
• Hybrid vehicles that use bio-fuels (ethanol and
  bio-diesel) for the transportation sector
• Reliance on new nuclear plants for electric power
  generation with fuel reprocessing to reduce high
  level waste by 90
• We need to get on with it much more aggressively
• A major PR campaign will be required.

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H2 SUPPLY PATHWAYSLike electricity, hydrogen is
an energy carrier that can be produced from
widely available primary energy resources
Biomass
Solar
Wind

Coal w/CO2 Sequestration
Natural Gas
Nuclear
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Hydrogen Production Dilemma

• 13 million barrels crude oil per day used in
  transportation equivalent to 1.46 billion
  pounds per day hydrogen
• This would require doubling the total US power
  production (850 GWe to 1780 GWe) if hydrogen were
  produced by conventional electrolysis. (assume 1
  MW per 1000 lbs)
• OR
• This would require 23 trillion cubic feet of
  natural gas per year - approximately 110 of the
  2002 total US consumption, nearly doubling the
  total natural gas requirement.

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Bio-fuels Hybrids in Transportation can
eliminate the need for imported oil

• Biomass (corn, sugar cane and beets, sorgum,
  fruit, and many other waste products) are ideal
  feed stock.
• Arguments over whether the life cycle net energy
  balance ratio for ethanol is less than or greater
  than one, are moot if biomass is converted using
  the suns energy, or waste heat from power
  plants.
• CO2 is reduced by at least 30 using ethanol and
  more is adsorbed in growing the biomass.

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How Much Ethanol Does it Take to Run Half of all
US Cars?

• Less than 30 hp needed to maintain a car or light
  truck at 68 mph against aerodynamic drag and
  rolling friction less than 9 hp to maintain it
  at 40 mph.
• A 35 hp Ethanol fueled IC engine augmented by
  battery usage for acceleration with regenerative
  braking is adequate for hybrid full size family
  vehicles
• to run 100 million hybrid cars for 12K miles at
  50 mph on ethanol would take 38.5 billion
  gallons of ethanol/yr.
• US today produces about 5 billion gal/yr of
  ethanol

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How Much Biomass and Land to Grow and Transform
to Ethanol?

• To grow if it all came from corn
• Corn Crop yield 122 bushels per acre, and 2.6
  gal of ethanol/bushel or 317 gal of Ethanol per
  acre
• 38.5 x 109 gal./317 gal./acre 121million added
  acres planted in corn compared to about 85
  million acres currently in corn for all purposes
• To transform using solar energy
• 100,000 acres or 156 sq mi. of solar collector
  operating 250 days per year _at_ 6 hrs per day at
  75 efficiency transforms enough corn to ethanol
  for 100 million cars for 12 k miles at 50 mph
• Includes all conversion steps milling, cooking,
  saccharification, fermenting, distilling, and
  dehydrating
• Can also transform using waste heat from electric
  generating power plants

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Ethanol Mythology and Reality

• Ethanol takes more energy to make it than it
  delivers
• Depends how you allocate energy cost to
  bi-products
• The argument is moot since all the energy for
  production can be power plant waste heat or
  otherwise wasted incident solar radiation
• Ethanol has lower energy content than gasoline so
  it is a poor fuel choice - 125,300 vs 79,000
  btu/gal
• Ethanol burns slower and more efficiently in an
  IC engine regaining almost half of the difference
  in energy content.
• Ethanol costs much more per mile than gasoline
• A gallon of Ethanol costs about 75 of gasoline
  in California - about the difference in mileage
  per gallon
• Engines require redesign/modification to burn
  ethanol
• Many engines in currently produced US cars are
  flexible fuel engines that can burn any blend
  from pure gasoline to at least 90 ethanol
• Other fuel injection engines can be adapted at
  low cost.
• Ethanol production and distribution cannot be
  increased rapidly
• Existing gasoline distribution can be readily
  used for ethanol and production facilities can
  and will grow to meet demand

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2nd Generation Hybrid Vehicle Proposed For Long
Term

• Uses 35 hp flex fuel engine to overcome drag and
  rolling friction and battery charging relying on
  battery power for acceleration at highway speeds
  as well as low speed operation.
• Requires more batteries with high energy density,
  high surge current capability, and long cycle
  life.
• Lithium Ion nanoelectrode battery technology
  appears most promising solution with potential
  for
• Many thousands of cycles with electrodes not
  susceptible to fatigue failure
• High current capable, fast recharging
• Good ruggedness and safety
• But not mature in required sizes for several
  years

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Biofueled Hybrids, Natural Gas and Nuclear Power
Inexorably Linked

• To be energy independent, natural gas fired power
  plants must eventually be replaced by nuclear or
  coal fired plants
• Future fuel efficient hybrids depend on high
  energy density batteries - Lithium Ion
  technology.
• The production and replentishment of such
  batteries for 100 million vehicles will increase
  electrical power generation demand
• Is there enough Lithium? Is it safe enough?

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The 21st Century Reemergence of Nuclear Power

• Improved nuclear power performance
• Global climate change and carbon emission
  constraints
• Increase in natural gas demand and costs
• Non-proliferation and arms reduction agreements
  require the consumption of fissile warhead
  materials
• Advanced systems for economic, versatile,
  sustainable, minimal waste and proliferation
  resistant nuclear power plants

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Current Status A Dramatic Increase in Output
Dr.Lawrence Papay Retired VP SAIC
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3 Obstacles to Increased Use of Nuclear Power

• Fear about nuclear energy safety
• The cost of siting, approval process, building
• The disposal of high level waste
• There are effective solutions to remove these
  obstacles

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A Safety Reliability and Cost Perspective

• US Naval Reactor Program has produced and
  operated well , 50MW output reactors with an
  impeccable safety record. Operated by 4-5
  personnel per shift
• The Keys
• Standard reactor designs and procedures
• Excellent reactor school and training program
• Streamlined regulatory processes
• French commercial reactors used standard designs
• By comparison most of US commercial reactors are
  one of a kind with widely different procedures

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Nuclear Safety

• Status Today
• Worldwide 441 Reactors, 2574 terawatt hours
• 31 Reactors under construction
  (several more ordered)
• 17 of worlds electricity
• North America 118 Reactors, 118 Gigawatts
• (103 in U.S. 20 of electricity
• 15 in Canada 12 of electricity)

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Reducing The Cost of Siting, Construction and
Operation of Nuclear Power Plants

• Standardization of plant design
• Streamlining regulatory requirements and approval
  process for siting of nuclear power plants
• Using the Naval Reactor model for
  standardization, design, construction, training
  and operating procedures
• Rethinking the waste problem

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Nuclear Wastes

• All nuclear fuel cycle waste (except HLW) has
  been safely and reliably disposed of through DOE
  and NRC regulations (milling, enrichment,
  fabrication)
• Since 1982, US law defines spent nuclear fuel
  as HLW, since reprocessing has not occurred since
  1976
• Spent fuel is currently stored at gt100 nuclear
  power plant sites with eventual storage/burial at
  Yucca Mt.
• All nuclear electricity is taxed at 1 mill/kwhr
  for a HLW fund (gt20 billion)
• HLW radiation exposure at disposal site less than
  natural background radiation levels in that region

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Conclusions

• Ever-increasing reliance on foreign energy supply
  is a real and growing threat to national security
• The US can be energy independent within 10-15
  years and radically reduce greenhouse emissions
  in the process
• The solution seems straight forward
• Hybrid vehicles that use bio-fuels (ethanol and
  bio-diesel) for the transportation sector
• Reliance on new nuclear plants for electric power
  generation with fuel reprocessing to reduce high
  level waste by 90
• We need to get on with it much more aggressively
• A major PR campaign will be required
• The so called hydrogen economy is not a solution