Illinois Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections: 1990-2020

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Illinois Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and
Projections 1990-2020
Meeting of the Illinois Climate Change Advisory
Group 300 West Adams St., 2nd Floor, Chicago,
IL February 22, 2007
Governor Rod R. Blagojevich Climate Change
Advisory Group
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Topics to Cover

• Data Sources and the Climate Analysis Indicators
  Tool (CAIT)
• Greenhouse Gases in Illinois and the U.S.
• Illinois Greenhouse Gas Projections to 2020
• Discussion

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CAIT overview
CAIT-US Sector and Gas Coverage CAIT-US Sector and Gas Coverage CAIT-US Sector and Gas Coverage CAIT-US Sector and Gas Coverage CAIT-US Sector and Gas Coverage
Sector CO2 CH4 N2O F-Gases
Energy
Electric Generation X X X
Residential X X X
Commercial X X X
Industrial X X X
Transportation X X X
Fugitive Emissions X
Industrial Processes X X
Agriculture X X
Waste X X

• State-level data available for 6 Kyoto gases
  across the economy
• CAIT based on EPAs Emissions Inventory
  Improvement Program (EIIP) Tools
• Does not include intl bunker fuels and land use
  change and forestry

CAIT is available free at http//cait.wri.org
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Federal data, tools and state proxies used
CAIT-U.S. Proxy Data, Sources and Comments by Sector CAIT-U.S. Proxy Data, Sources and Comments by Sector CAIT-U.S. Proxy Data, Sources and Comments by Sector CAIT-U.S. Proxy Data, Sources and Comments by Sector
Sector Agency Source Proxy Data Comments
Electric Generation, Residential, Commercial, Industrial Transport Energy Information Administration (EIA) Federal Highway Administration State level fuel consumption 2001 Non-CO2 data used to supplement missing data, some mis-assignment of emissions from jet fuel
Fugitive Emissions US EPA Estimates based on state coal production data Oil and natural gas processing emissions are excluded
Industrial Processes U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Directory of Chemical Producers (SRI 2000) National data assigned by population (HFCs), state-level shipments (SF6) No data for certain production processes, data anomalies present at state level
Agriculture US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Commercial Fertilizers Report, Fertilizer Institute State level crop and livestock production data 2001 data used as proxy for 2002 and 2003 due to anomalies
Waste US EPA National data assigned by population Industrial waste water methane data are excluded
Data uncertainties have only a small effect on
aggregate state emissions
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Topics to Cover

• Data Sources and the Climate Analysis Indicators
  Tool (CAIT)
• Greenhouse Gases in Illinois and the U.S.
• Illinois Greenhouse Gas Projections to 2020
• Discussion

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IL is a big emitter electricity transport lead

• Total Illinois GHG emissions 2003 274.7 million
  metric tonnes
• 5th largest GHG emitting state in the U.S.
• Roughly equal to total emissions of the
  Netherlands

IL GHGs by Gas (2003)
IL GHGs by Sector (2003)
Waste
2
Agriculture
9
Residential
10
Transportation
24
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IL emissions grew faster than U.S.
GHG Emissions Trends in Illinois and the U.S., 1990-2003 GHG Emissions Trends in Illinois and the U.S., 1990-2003 GHG Emissions Trends in Illinois and the U.S., 1990-2003 GHG Emissions Trends in Illinois and the U.S., 1990-2003 GHG Emissions Trends in Illinois and the U.S., 1990-2003
Illinois 1990 2003 Growth Annual Rate
Total (MtCO2Eq) 237.3 274.9 15.8 1.1
Electricity Generation 56.3 85.9 52.5 3.3
Residential 25.6 26.4 3.0 0.2
Commercial 12.5 12.6 1.1 0.1
Industrial 44.9 38.4 -14.6 -1.2
Transportation 55.3 65.5 18.5 1.3
Fugitive Emissions 4.2 1.9 -55.6 -6.1
Industrial Processes 3.5 13.1 277.2 10.8
Agriculture 25.9 24.4 -5.7 -0.5
Waste 9.2 6.8 -25.8 -2.3
U.S. 1990 2003 Growth Annual Rate
Total (MtCO2Eq) 6,108.9 6,959.1 13.9 1.0
Electricity Generation 1,803.6 2,272.2 26.0 1.8
Residential 338.0 378.8 12.1 0.9
Commercial 222.6 235.8 5.9 0.4
Industrial 1,082.2 1,065.4 -1.6 -0.1
Transportation 1,460.0 1,818.4 24.6 1.7
Fugitive Emissions 254.9 217.4 -14.7 -1.2
Industrial Processes 301.1 304.1 1.0 0.1
Agriculture 439.6 439.1 -0.1 0.0
Waste 210.0 194.8 -7.2 -0.6


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Emissions growth has varied
Illinois GHG Emission Trends by Sector 1990-2003
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Topics to Cover

• Data Sources and the Climate Analysis Indicators
  Tool (CAIT)
• Greenhouse Gases in Illinois and the U.S.
• Illinois Greenhouse Gas Projections to 2020
• Discussion

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Projections methodology

• Transportation, Residential, Commercial and
  Industrial sector growth rates are based on EIA
  projections for energy use in the East North
  Central region (IL, IN, MI, OH and WI)
• Electric generation and non-energy sector growth
  rates are derived from historic trends
• Illinois total GHG emissions are projected to
  increase at an annual rate of 1.00

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IL GHGs projected to be 326 MtCO2e by 2020
Illinois actual and projected GHG Emissions
1990-2020
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EIP could cut 22.9 million tonnes from projected
emissions by 2020
Illinois actual and projected GHG Emissions with
Energy Independence Plan measures 1990-2020
Projected
Actual
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Discussion

• Questions and Comments