Political Psychology: Citizen Behaviors and Opinions

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Political PsychologyCitizen Behaviors and
Opinions

• Lecture 6
• Cognition 2 The quality of opinions

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Program

• Simulations and vote choice
• Simulations and public opinion
• Deliberative polling

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Simulations and vote choice

• Lecture 6
• Cognition 2 The quality of opinions

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Bartels (1996)

• Approach
• Simulate the behavior of an electorate that is
  completely informed and compare it to the actual
  behavior of voters.
• Criteria
• Compare the behavior of each individual to the
  behavior of informed individuals with the same
  sociodemographic profile.
• Subject
• 6 US presidential elections, 1972-1992

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Bartels (1996)
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Bartels (1996)

• Less informed citizens do not vote the same way
  they would have voted if they had been informed
  in the US.
• The incumbent party receives five points more
  than they would have obtained under full
  information.
• The Democrats receive two points more than they
  would have obtained under full information.

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Oscarsson (2007)

• Same approach as Bartels
• Simulations with information / socio-demographic
  interactions
• Subject
• 6 Swedish elections, 1985-2002

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Oscarsson (2007)
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Blais et al. (2009)

• Simpler approach
• Does information have an impact on vote choice
  controlling for socio-demographics and PID?
• Subject
• 6 Canadian elections, 1988-2006

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Blais et al. (2009)
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Blais et al. (2009)

• One step further
• Why do information gaps appear in some elections
  and not others?
• Hypothesis
• Visibility is the key less informed vote more
  for more visib. parties.

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Blais et al. (2009)
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Implications

• Citizens do not vote as they would have voted if
  they had possessed more information.
• All mechanisms that allegedly overcome
  information shortages do not perform that role
  perfectly.

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Simulations and public opinion

• Lecture 6
• Cognition 2 The quality of opinions

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Althaus (1998)

• Question
• Would preferences about public policy be
  different if people were more informed?
• Method
• Applying to each person the behavior of
  informed individuals with the same
  socio-demographic profile.
• Subject
• 45 American public policies

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Althaus (1998)
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Althaus (1998)

• Often, the population is not able to express the
  public policy preferences that it would possess
  if it held more political information.

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Deliberative polling

• Lecture 6
• Cognition 2 The quality of opinions

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Deliberative poll

• Quasi-experimental technique that seeks to
  determine the opinions of a representative sample
  of citizens with more information, thought and
  discussion about an issue.

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Deliberative poll

• Draw of a representative sample.
• First interview by telephone.
• Readings, followed by a weekend of presentations
  by experts and discussions among participants.
• Second questionnaire on site.

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England, election, 1997

• Labour Conserv. Lib.-Dem.
• Result of the
• election 44 32 17
• DP intentions
• pre-deliberation 52 29 13
• DP intentions
• post-deliberation 44 21 33
• DP reported
• votes 42 18 37

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England, crime, 1994
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USA, Iraq intervention, 2003

• Pre-delib. Post-delib.
• Favorable to military intervention if existence
  of weapons of mass destruction is proven.
  73 77
• Favorable to military intervention if proofs do
  not persuade the security council. 46
  37
• Favorable to military intervention if no new
  proof is found. 31 22
• Support to unilateral American action.
  58 44

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Implications

• If an increase in information generates opinion
  change, then the original opinions were not
  enlightened.
• Individuals opinions are not those that they
  would have formed with more information.

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Conclusion

• Lecture 6
• Cognition 2 The quality of opinions

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Conclusion

• All studies find opinion gaps between information
  groups.
• People do not hold the opinions that they would
  have developed if informed.
• Information deficiencies are not overcome.