ORIGINS OF THE GREAT WAR (1870-1914)

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Some Damned Foolish Thing in the Balkans

• ORIGINS OF THE GREAT WAR (1870-1914)

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Why did a world war begin in 1914?
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Significance of the First World War

• The First World War was a tragic and unnecessary
  conflict. Unnecessary because the train of events
  that led to its outbreak might have broken at any
  point during five weeks of crisis that preceded
  the first clash of arms, had prudence or common
  goodwill found a voice tragic because the
  consequences of the first clash end the lives of
  ten million human beings, tortured the emotional
  lives of millions more, destroyed the benevolent
  and optimistic culture of the European continent,
  and left, when the guns at last fell silent four
  years later, a legacy of political rancour and
  racial hatred so intense that no explanation of
  the causes of the Second World War can stand
  without reference to those roots. The Second
  World War, five times more destructive of human
  life and incalculably more costly in material
  terms, was the direct outcome of the First
• John Keegan, The First World War

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Unification of Germany

• 1862 Otto von Bismarck was appointed prime
  minister of Prussia
• Real Politik- politics of reality
• The advantages of war did not justify the risks
  involved
• Bismarck wages three wars to unify Germany
• Danish War of 1864- split provinces b/w Germany
  and Austria
• Austro-Prussian 1886 (7 Weeks War)- Northern
  German Confederation
• Franco-Prussian War 1870- united Northern and
  Southern Germany loss of Alsace-Lorraine
• King William I was named Kaiser of the Second
  German Empire

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Causes (traditional)

• nationalism
• alliance system
• Imperialism
• militarism arms race
• An analysis of these causes suggests war was
  inevitable and out of the hands of human actors.
• Nothing is inevitable until it happens.
• - A.J.P. Taylor, British historian

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The problem of nationalism

• pan-Slavic nationalism was one of the few causes
  that Russias ruling classes supported
  (religious, cultural similarities) Russia was
  horribly disunited in the early 1900s
• Since gaining independence from Ottomans (1886),
  Serbia desired to unite the Slavic peoples in a
  greater Slavia (Yugoslavia) many Slavs lived
  inside the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Russian
  support of these peoples were the real menace.
• A series of crises and small wars rocked the
  Balkans in 1908, 1912 and 1913 in each case,
  Russia backed down from supporting the Serbians.
  
• Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia in 1908 to prevent
  nationalist uprisings on its borders.

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The Balkans in 1914 A powder keg?

• Europe today is a powder keg and the leaders are
  like men smoking in an arsenalA single spark
  will set off an explosion that will consume us
  allI cannot tell you when that explosion will
  occur, but I can tell you whereSome damned
  foolish thing in the Balkans will set it off.
• Otto von Bismarck, 1890s

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Nationalism Austro-Hungarian Empire

• Nationalist movements in the Balkans were a
  threat to the stability of both Austria-Hungary
  and the Ottoman Empire.
• The collapse of Ottoman rule in the Balkans was
  viewed from Moscow as an opportunity to expand
  south into the Mediterranean.

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Alliance system

• Central Powers (Triple Alliance)
• Germany
• Austria-Hungary
• Italy (had territorial grievances with A-H)
• After 1870, Bismarck had always maintained a
  skillful policy of avoiding encirclement by being
  in an alliance with at least 2 of the continental
  powers, thus always isolating France.
• After 1890,Kaiser Wilhelm IIs foreign policy
  (place in the sun), support of Ottoman Empire,
  and allowing Russian alliance to lapse, forced
  Germany to rely more on their alliance with
  Austria-Hungary

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Alliance system

• Triple Entente(not an alliance)
• France (mutual defense alliance with Russia)
• Russia (industrial assistance and investment from
  France to counter Germany)
• Britain (distrusted Russian ambitions in
  Mediterranean, but left with no alternative)

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Alliance system

• Entente (not an alliance)
• German foreign policy, empire-building after 1890
  and creation of a naval fleet was viewed in
  London with concern. This drew them into a closer
  association with France (almost went to war in
  1898 in Fashoda but found diplomatic solution.
  By 1904, France and Britain had an understanding
  or entente).
• Britain was feeling pressure of economic
  competition from Germany and losing prestige.
  This sense of insecurity caused them to abandon
  splendid isolation and become more involved in
  the continent.
• After 1905 Revolution and humiliation against
  Japan, Russia relied heavily on French capital
  and expertise to modernize, industrialize and
  improve her armed forces (this was an alliance of
  polar opposites) France needed a strong ally on
  Germanys eastern border

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Alliance system

• This political cartoon shows the German
  perspective of the Anglo-French entente. John
  Bull (Britain) is shown being escorted away from
  a possible friendship with Germany by the
  prostitute (France). The sword hidden under the
  Germans cloak suggests there will be future
  consequences for this foolish decision.

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The alliances, 1914
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Imperial rivalries

• Heightened competition to acquire colonies that
  provide ports, materials, and markets
• Social Darwinism and Racism- White mans burden
• Britain viewed Germany as a threat to its global
  empire and prestige as the leading economic power
  in Europe.
• Fearing encirclement, Germany twice attempted to
  break up France and Britains relationship by
  threatening French imperial ambitions in North
  Africa (Morocco , 1905 and 1911). In the Second
  Moroccan Crisis (1911) Germany used gun boat
  diplomacy to gain territorial concessions in the
  Congo from France.
• Mansion House Speech- David Lloyd George-
  Britain would not allow Germany to pressure
  France
• Events further pushed France and Britain together

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Imperial rivalries

• Russia had fought a series of wars since 1870s
  against the Ottomans and supported the cause of
  Serbia nationalism for strategic reasons it
  would help them gain influence in the Balkans and
  gain access to the Mediterranean.
• Austria-Hungary was in survival mode, and Serbian
  nationalism and terrorist organizations inside
  the empire threatened its existence, but were not
  powerful enough without Russian support to
  seriously disrupt the empire. Russia was not
  prepared, nor willing to fight over the Balkans
  in 1908 (Bosnia) or 1912-13 (Balkan Wars) so
  Serbian ambitions were unsuccessful.

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Imperial rivalries

• Germany financed a railway in the Ottoman Empire
  and increasing its military expertise and capital
  to the Turks.
• The German plan involved pushing Russian
  influence out of the Balkans, cutting Russia off
  from the Mediterranean by control of the
  Dardenelles, and in opening up a way for Germany
  to expand towards the Persian Gulf and India.

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Militarism

• Historians claim that the expectation of war and
  militarism among the citizens of the Great Powers
  made general war more likely.
• By 1914, Europe was two heavily armed power
  blocs. Most states had adopted compulsory
  military service and had millions of trained
  reservists.
• gun boat diplomacy and the exercising of
  military power was a legitimate means of solving
  international disputes in the 19th century. Why
  should it be different now?

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Militarism

• Anglo-German Naval Arms Race - Germany had tried,
  but could not maintain, to build a navy to rival
  Britain. According to American military
  strategist, Mahan, naval supremacy was the key to
  global domination throughout history.
• Germanys attempt to build a massive fleet was
  viewed as an act of aggression in London, but by
  1907-08, Germany had abandoned these plans the
  army was more vital to its survival, and the
  build up of battleships too expensive.
• It is far fetched to claim the Anglo-German arms
  race as a significant cause of the war, but it
  did indicate Britains sense of insecurity and
  likely help to push her closer into the
  Franco-Russian entente (especially since the 1905
  Russo-Japanese War had temporarily eliminated
  Russia as a naval rival in the Mediterranean).

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Militarism

• By 1914, many of Europes military leaders were
  convinced that war was inevitable a sense of
  pessimism prevailed.
• Given the existing tensions, all states had
  developed detailed war plans that relied on
  precise timing and railway schedules to gain the
  advantage of speedy mobilization (this is what
  won the Franco-Prussian War, 1870).
• Germany, maintaining a policy of trying to keep
  the largest army in Europe, was by 1914
  struggling to keep pace with Russian build up and
  advantages in manpower.
• Germanys high command were worried that within a
  few years Russia would have finished military
  upgrades, would be more industrialized and would
  have completed its railways into the western
  frontier Germany would be doomed, according to
  Germanys military strategists.

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The long fuse

• Historians generally recognize that some
  long-term developments played a role in the
  outbreak of war in 1914
• Franco-Prussian War (1870-1914) the German
  Question
• Collapse of Ottoman Empire Balkan independence
  movements the Eastern Question
• Russo-Japanese War and 1905 Revolution
• Austro-Hungarian annexation of Bosnia (1908)
• Balkan Wars (1912-13)

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The long fuse

• Those who argue convincingly that Germany was
  most responsible for the conditions that created
  a general war point out a recklessness and
  aggression that was apparent long before 1914
• Moroccan Crises (1905, 1911)
• Naval arms race and military build up
• Seeking a place in the sun empire building in
  Asia and Africa
• Ambitions in the Middle East was a threat to Suez
  
• Provided Krupp artillery guns to Boers and
  Afrikaners in Boer War Kaisers public support
  for Britains enemies in the war
• ..it must be granted that Germanys policies
  had for some years been rather peremptory,
  arrogant, devious and obstinate.
• - Palmer, Colton, Kramer, A History of the Modern
  World

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Internal causes

• Germany
• Rise in political power of socialists demands
  for greater democratization and power-sharing was
  feared by traditional elites and industrialists.
• Successful war would unify the people
• Austria-Hungary
• Very multi-ethnic population. Successful war
  against Serbia and Russia would give them
  dominance in the Balkans and end nationalist
  disturbances.

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Internal causes

• Russia
• Tsar had recovered from 1905 by allowing a Duma
  (parliament) but had been restricting its powers.
  Increasingly relied on middle class and working
  class for industrialization, but did not want to
  share power or reform government. In the last
  years before war, the Dumas powers were
  curtailed.
• Russian Empire contained hundreds of minorities
  and were disunited. Attempts to Russify
  minorities had failed.
• Civil unrest and strikes had rocked Russia in the
  last years before the war. Successful war would
  unify the people behind the Tsar and avoid future
  revolution.

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Internal causes

• France
• Had been rocked by military scandals, strikes and
  labor unrest.
• Industrial growth and population growth were
  stagnant and faced a bleak future.
• Britain
• Support for socialist Labor Party growing amidst
  declining economic growth.
• Had suffered some shocks to its prestige and was
  losing ground to USA and Germany as the prime
  economic power. German exports were challenging
  British economy.

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The July Crisis

• June 28, Sarajevo, Bosnia Franz Ferdinand and
  his wife assassinated
• Gavrillo Princip, a Serb nationalist, supported
  an encouraged by the Black Hand, a terrorist
  organization hoping to cause a war that would
  free Slavs from the Hapsburgs.
• Franz Ferdinand was a moderate reformer who might
  have found compromise and allowed nationalist
  autonomy within the empire. This would
  potentially have frustrated Serb goals.
• No direct link to official Serbian government
  involvement has ever been proven Serbias
  civilian government did not want war (having just
  fought in two Balkan Wars)

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Why the July Crisis resulted in escalation?

1. Austria-Hungary could not let Serbia go
   unpunished and retain prestige as a great
   power. Meant to send a message to nationalists.
2. Russia had backed down in previous Balkan crises
   and felt it could not back down in this one.
3. Germany had mounting paranoia about the
   improvement of Russias armies, and the
   dependability of their weak ally leaders feared
   war with Russia or France, not rising out of the
   Austro-Serbian dispute, might not result in
   Austria-Hungary on Germanys side?

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Diplomatic failure

• July 28 Austria-Hungary declares war with
  support of Germany and the Blank Check
• August 1 Germany declared war on Russia.
  Britain still refused to declare position to
  France.
• August 3 Germany declared war on France and
  invaded Belgium.
• August 4 Britain declared war on Germany
• WORLD WAR ONE HAS BEGUN!!!
• 1st international war of the industrial
  revolution total war

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Schlieffen Plan

• Geographically encircled by France and Russia,
  Germany feared being cut to pieces fighting a
  two-front war.
• The Schlieffen Plan was to remedy this situation
  by attacking and defeating France first, because
  Russia would take longer to mobilize, then
  putting troops on trains to meet the Russians.
  This had two important consequences
• The plan necessitated Germany to involve France
  in a continental war in any conflict involving
  Russia, thus making a wider war more likely in a
  local conflict involving the Balkans.

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• Germanys Schlieffen Plan was designed to
  outflank Frances army and capture Paris in six
  weeks, but required an impossible rate of speed
  to move men and materials.
• August 4th they started their attack and made it
  20 miles outside of Paris by September
• Halted at the Battle of the Marne
• Western Front

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Western Front

• 1916-1917 millions of sacrificed men for little
  gains example 10 months at Verdun for 300,000
  lives
• Trench Warfare
• Trench Foot
• Frostbite
• Rats
• Poison Gas

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Eastern Front

• Mobile War
• 1914- Russian were beat out of Germany but later
  pushed the Austrians out of Serbia
• Italians leave the Triple Alliance and attack
  Austria in May 1915
• Germans come to the aid of Austria and also
  eliminate Serbia from the war in September of 1915

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The Gallipoli Campaign

• Allie strategy to attack the Ottoman Empire and
  the Dardanelles along with establishing a supply
  line to Russia
• Feb. 1915- Led by British, French, Australian,
  and French troops
• Turned into a stalemate and by the time of
  evacuation (December) 250,000 had died

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Why did a world war begin in 1914? Historical
Interpretations

• The question of war guilt has been the focus of
  historical controversy ever since the Paris Peace
  Conferences in 1919. Our readings represent the
  two basic positions on the issue
• Palmer, Colton, Kramer, argue that the war was
  not Germanys fault and therefore the verdict at
  Versailles in 1919 was flawed
• ..it is not true that Germany started the war,
  as its enemies in 1914 popularly believed...
  Palmer, Colton, Kramer, A History of the Modern
  World, p. 687.
• J.A.S. Grenville takes the traditional view that
  Germany and her allies were primarily responsible
  and therefore the verdict of Versailles was a
  justifiable one
• The responsibility for starting the conflict in
  July and August must rest primarily on the
  shoulders of Germany and Austria-Hungary -
  J.A.S. Grenville, A History of the World, p. 59.
• Which position is best supported by the evidence?
  

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Why did a world war begin in 1914? Historical
Interpretations

• Key historians who argue that Germany was at
  fault
• A.J.P. Taylor, British historian
• war by timetable argument war plans,
  mobilization schedules, railroad itineraries put
  events beyond the control of the diplomats in the
  final days of the July Crisis
• however, the war plans were necessary because of
  Germanys reversal in foreign policy after
  Bismarcks retirement (1890) in which Germany
  became increasingly aggressive and allowed
  alliances to lapse, leading to encirclement
• David Fromkin (Europes Last Summer) argues that
  Germany deliberately used the assassination as a
  cause to start a global war
• The war was no accident. German military
  leadership were convinced that by 1916-18,
  Germany would be too weak to win a war with
  France, England and Russia this was a war
  desired by Germany, especially von Molke.
• also argues that in all countries, but
  particularly Germany and Austria documents were
  widely destroyed and forged to distort the
  origins of the war.

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Why did a world war begin in 1914? Historical
Interpretations

• Key historians who argue that Germany was at
  fault
• Fritz Fischer, German historian the Fischer
  controversy is at the centre of the Great War
  origins debate
• link between domestic fears of the German power
  elite (capitalists Junkers) and the
  expansionist aims of the Reich
• the Prussian elites wanted war since 1912 (the
  year of sweeping socialist gains in the
  Reichstag) and manipulated the Austrians into
  using the Casus Belli (lawful cause of war)
  created by the assassination of Archduke into
  starting WWI
• uses Bethmann-Hollwegs plan (September Program,
  1914) for annexations and economic mastery of
  Europe (Mitteleuropa) to argue that Germany
  planned the war to avoid democratization and gain
  hegemony over central Europe is this bad
  history?
• continuity between the war aims of the Reich in
  1914, and Hitlers Nazis in the 1930s, and
  therefore there was something inherently rotten
  about Germany in the 20th century

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Why did a world war begin in 1914? Historical
Interpretations

• Key historians who argue that structural
  factors are to blame
• Paul Kennedy, argues that Germany took the
  offensive against legitimate and real threats.
• James Joll argues that interlocking system of
  alliances was responsible, but points to other
  pressures such as domestic problems.
• George Kennan argues that the French-Russian
  alliance made war inevitable any Balkan quarrel
  would erupt in war
• Arthur Stoessinger argues that ultimately it was
  the system of decision making in all of the Great
  Power governments that caused the war a handful
  of arrogant, stubborn and careless leaders
  dragged millions into war.

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Why did a world war begin in 1914? Historical
Interpretations

• Finally, one is struck with the overwhelming
  mediocrity of the people involved. The character
  of each of the leaders, diplomats, or generals
  was badly flawed by arrogance, stupidity,
  carelessness, or weakness. There was a pervasive
  tendency to place the preservation of ones ego
  before the preservation of the peace.
• - Stoessinger, Why Nations Go To War

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Why did a world war begin in 1914? Historical
Interpretations

• Key historians who focus away from Germany
• Arno Mayer equally distributes blame, but
  Austrians were especially desperate for war.
• advocates that all of Europe - not just Germany -
  was beset by domestic disturbances all
  conservative European statesmen consciously used
  popular nationalism and edged closer to war to
  preserve their social systems from political
  opposition parties
• Samuel Williamson argues that Austrias role has
  been overlooked. The decision to wage war was
  ultimately Austrias.
• Barbara Tuchman argues that careless and
  belligerent Russian mobilization turned a local
  crisis into global war.
• Niall Ferguson refutes the notion that
  militarism, imperialism, nationalism or the arms
  race made war inevitable British policy in the
  decade before 1914, but especially British
  diplomacy under Sir Edward Grey created a global
  conflict from the local crisis.

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Why did a world war begin in 1914? Historical
Interpretations

• Behind the governments the handful of men
  who made decisions in Berlin, Vienna, Paris and
  St. Petersburg stood populations willing to
  fight for republic, king and emperor. Only a tiny
  minority dissented. For the largest socialist
  party in Europe, the German, the war was accepted
  as being fought against tsarist Russian
  aggression. The different nationalities of the
  Dual Monarchy Austria-Hungary all fought for
  the Hapsburgs, the French socialists fought as
  enthusiastically in the defence of their
  fatherland ruthlessly invaded by the Germans
• - J.A.S. Grenville, A History of the World

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Review Discussion

• Explain why the mere narration of successive
  crises does not explain why the chief nations of
  Europe within a few days became locked in combat
  over the murder of an imperial personage. Why
  did a world war break out in 1914?
• In what ways, and with what results, was
  nationalism both a unifying and destructive force
  in the nineteenth and early twentieth century?
• To what extent was Germany responsible for
  starting a global war in 1914?
• The lights are going out all over Europe. We
  shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.
• Sir Edward Grey, August 4, 1914