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Soft/Hard ComplementarityCurrent Work and
Initial Perspectives EPSRC NetworkMeeting
1Mar 01
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Topics for discussion

• MoDs Modelling and Simulation Strategy for
  Analysis
• Some personal perspectives from the
  Unconventional Analysis Workshop held last Oct
• Current work and issues

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MoD MS Strategy for Analysis
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MoD MS Strategy for Analysis Overview

• Version 2 now available
• Written by CDA on behalf of MoD stakeholder
  community
• Copies can be made available
• Contains four Thrust Areas
• 1. Flexible analysis techniques
• 2. Functionality focus areas - C2 and
  logistics/sustainability
• 3. Improving the quality and integrity of the
  analytical process
• 4. Making the best use of technology developments

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Updated Strategy Key Tenets

• A UK MoD Modelling and Simulation Strategy for
  Analysis
• Used to drive strategies and implementation plans
  in individual areas
• Not just for CDA/DERA but for all analysis done
  on MoDs behalf
• Builds on the previous (1997) version
• Less model-centric
• Analyst at least as important as the software
• Principles should apply equally to all OA
  techniques
• Embraces work on role of Synthetic Environments
  in OA

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Thrust 1 Flexible Analysis TechniquesCritical
Principles

• Delivery of faster, better, cheaper analysis
• but still of an appropriate quality
• Transition from perception that analysts role is
• Running the model
• to
• supporting the decision (maker)
• using analytical techniques
• as appropriate to assist

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Thrust 3 Improving the quality and integrity of
the analytical processCritical Principles

• Crucial element is fitness for purpose (FFP)
• Determine if something is valid in the context of
  what it is being used for
• FFP embraces ideas from Verification, Validation
  and Accreditation
• An ability to prove FFP in a timely fashion and
  at commensurate cost is also essential
• Relies on assessment of Methodology, User, Data,
  Review, (Concept)

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Thrust 4 Making best use of technology
developmentCritical Principles

• Capture current practice and capabilities
• Maintain an awareness of likely relevant changes
  in technology that could be used to support
  analysis
• Provide guidance on best practice and changes to
  best practice arising from technology
  opportunities

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Some Personal Perspectives from the
Unconventional Analysis Seminar
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Perspectives (1)

• Knowledge of the social processes into which the
  OR is being fed is vital
• This particularly influences "new" methods but
  applies generally to OR
• The hard/soft divide and the debate it engenders
  is both unhelpful and potentially divisive
• Spectrum vs Quantisation ?
• Techniques such as MCDA crystallise the debate
• They are hard to really soft modellers but soft
  to really hard modellers !

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Perspectives (2)

• Judgements are necessary in all OR and must be
  made by appropriately qualified and/or empowered
  individuals.
• Analysts need to be aware of all OR techniques
• This needs to be better facilitated by the OR
  community
• Also demands a willingness to embrace newer
  methods as appropriate but equally not to ignore
  the "classical" OR methods that still have much
  to offer
• There is strength in (managed) diversity
• Back towards our original multi-disciplinary
  roots ?!

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SummaryCurrent Work and Issues

• Current work
• Ideas flowing from MoD MS Strategy
• Work on fitness for purpose across all MS
• Work on best practice capture and promulgation
• Method Logbooks, building on previous work on
  model validation logbooks
• Issues
• What can Soft learn from Hard ?
• What can Hard learn from Soft ?
• How can we use them together to best effect ?
• How can we escape the divisive nature of such
  terminology in future ?

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(No Transcript)
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Underlying Principle 1Using Models of an
Appropriate Level of Complexity

• The analytical approach must be simple enough to
  be understandable, yet able to represent
  adequately the key features of the problem under
  consideration
• It has long been understood by Operational
  Analysts that, in dealing with complicated
  situations, simple models that provide useful
  insights are often to be preferred to models that
  get so close to the real world that the mysteries
  they intend to unravel are repeated in the model
  and remain mysteries.
  (The Lanchester Legacy, Vol III Chapter 9
  (Bowen, McNaught))

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Put another way...

• Everything should be made as simple as
  possible, but no simpler.
• .Albert Einstein