Contigo

1
Ministry of Social Development SEDESOL Mexico De
sign and Evaluation of Social Programmes Gonzalo
Hernandez, Gustavo Merino, Ana Santiago, Miguel
Szekely
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PRESENTATION

• 1. Designing a new programme
• Plataforma de Oportunidades
• 2. Evaluation of Social Programmes
• Evaluation System at SEDESOL
• Evaluation of Plataforma de Oportunidades

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From Progresa to Oportunidades

• Nutrition, Health, Schooling
• Increasing the number of beneficiaries from 2.6
  to 4.2 million
• Moving to urban areas Important number of poor
  families in urban areas
• Grants to High School students Young people
  leave school after secondary level
• Primary, 90 Secondary, 150 High
  School, 550
• More generous grant for girls in Secondary and
  High School

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4 critical issues in the design of Oportunidades

• 1. Demographics
• 2. Uncertain incentives problem
• 3. Final-grade repetition incentives
• 4. Potentially conflicting incentives with other
  programmes

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Demographics What can be accomplished today
with the beneficiaries of Oportunidades will have
an effect in the next 50 years
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2. Uncertain incentives
When Oportunidades extends coverage to urban
areas, the level of benefits will remain the
same, yet average household income is higher in
urban areas.
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3. Incentives for repetition of the final-grade
of high school

• If few or none exit options are available, then
  it may be more convenient for the beneficiary to
  repeat the last academic year, in order to
  continue receiving benefits (grants).

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4. Potentially conflicting incentives between
programs

• Microcredit for productive projects can create
  employment opportunities for members of
  beneficiary households. These other programs can
  create incentives that compete with the incentive
  to remain in school.

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Proposal
Plataforma de Oportunidades Your first patrimony
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First StepWiden the doors in alignement with
Contigo strategy
Protection
Options
Patrimony
Capabilities
3 High School
2 High School
1 High School
3 Jr. High School
2 Jr. High School
1 Jr. High School
Elementary
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Second StepCreate the platform of
Oportunidades
Protection
Options
Patrimony
Capabilities
Fund
Giving Points each year
Deposit in Bank Account
3 High School
2 High School
1 High School
3 Jr. High School
Cash
2 Jr. High School
1 Jr. High School
Elementary
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The first generation has the followingoptions
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The value of the fund can be significant,
reinforcing positive incentives generated by
Oportunidades
The monthly family income of Oportunidades
beneficiaries is aproximately 1490.
Funds Value Relationship between funds value and monthly income
3,000 2.01
4,500 3.02
6,000 4.03
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4 critical issues in the design of Oportunidades

• 1. Demographics Better equiped individuals for
  crucial demographic boom
• 2. Uncertain incentives problem More attractive
  programme more schooling
• 3. Final-grade repetition incentives Repetition
  may become less attractive
• 4. Potentially conflicting incentives with other
  programmes Alligning incentives with other
  programmes

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Evaluation

• Evaluation System
• Evaluation of Plataforma de Oportunidades

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The Evaluation Process in SEDESOL

• Mexico has a long tradition in social programmes
  (IMSS, subsidies, Pronasol, Progresa)
• Some of them, however, have responded to various
  political situations
• We dont actually know the real impact of these
  programmes on the population
• and we dont have of course a ranking of these
  programmes in terms of efficiency
• There isnt yet a generalized evaluation practice.

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The Evaluation Process in SEDESOL

• Since 2000, SEDESOL must evaluate all social
  programmes through external institutions.
• We invite many institutions and we choose the
  best project, given the budget constraint for
  each programme
• This year we evaluated 26 programmes designed for
  various populations and with different
  objectives
• Milk, Supply of Basic Goods in Rural Areas,
  Tortilla, Artcrafts, Temporary Employment,
  Oportunidades, Micro Credits, Women heads of
  Household, Indigenous population, etc.

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Structural Problems

• Only annual evaluations
• The total impact of social programmes cant be
  measured in the short term
• Limited resources
• Some institutions dont participate
• Since we evaluate each programme, we cannot
  profit from economies of scale
• Poor beneficiaries data base
• Not enough human capital in the country

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Support from International Agencies

• IDB Support for Oportunidades
• IDB Technical Co-operation. Resources for
  inviting international experts. Scientific
  Committee.
• World Bank Institutional Development Fund.
• Resources to improve evaluation on certain
  programmes and increase the Mexican human capital
  on social evaluation

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Evaluation of Plataforma de Oportunidades

• Objective
• Increase High School enrolment
• Increase individuals assets
• (Are liquidity constraints important?)

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Methodology

• Measure differences in outcome between
  beneficiaries and control groups. Two point in
  time.
• Finding the proper control groups in order to
  measure the impact of both benefits school
  attendance and financial capital accumulation
• The effect of the financial bit Giving randomly
  the full Fund to Oportunidades-students finishing
  high school in 2003.

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Methodology

• School attendance
• Comparing secondary-high school transitions in
  randomly selected Plataforma-beneficiaries with
  Oportunidades-beneficiaries only, or
• Comparing outcomes in 2002 (without Plataforma)
  and 2003 onwards (with Plataforma)
• Testing preferences Giving the whole fund
  without conditions
• All this is subject to budget and political
  constraints

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Methodology

• Evaluate carefully the five exit door options in
  Plataforma
• Why did they choose a particular exit door?
• Are there local problems with one or several
  options?
• Will there be a difference in individual
  development in choosing different approaches?