Aging in an Aging Society Brief demographic overview

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Aging in an Aging SocietyBrief demographic
overview

• Age in America Symposium, January 31, 2008
• Victor W. Marshall, PhD
• Director
• UNC Institute on Aging
• Victor_marshall_at_unc.edu

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Outline

• The Aging of America
• Diversity of the Older Population
• The Changing Meaning of Age in Home, Work, and
  Community

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THE AGING OF AMERICA Three Factors Affect the
Age Structure of any Population

• Birth Rates (which have fallen)
• Life Expectancy (which has increased)
• Immigration and Migration Rates

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U.S. Population Pyramids
1990
2025
2050
Age
Percent Male (blue) and Female (green)
Source of charts US Census Bureau
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Declining Fertility

• US completed fertility higher than most
  industrialized countries (about 1.9)
• But has declined (from 3.1 in 1975)
• Hispanic womens birth rate 66 higher than
  non-hispanic white women (96.9/1000 aged
  15-44 versus 58.5)
• Source US Census Bureau

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70 million
35 million
21 million
3 million
4.2 million
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Increases in the Oldest OldU.S. Population Aged
85 (millions)
Source of data U.S. Census Bureau, We the
American Elderly, September 1993.
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Percentage of Americans Age 65 Expected to
Survive Age 90
Source of data US Census Bureau
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Living to 100Number of Centenarians in the U.S.
24 of all elderly
10 of all elderly
Source of data US Census Bureau, Current
Populations Reports, P23-199RV, July 1999
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Population Changes

• According to Census Bureau projections, the
  elderly population will more than double between
  now and the year 2050, to 80 million.
• Much of this growth is attributed to the "baby
  boom" generation which will enter their elderly
  years between 2010 and 2030.
• The most populous States are also the ones with
  the largest number of elderly. However, the
  States with the greatest proportion of elderly
  are generally different from those with the
  greatest number.

Source of data US Census Bureau
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Gender, Race, Class, and Health Differentiation

• Elderly women outnumber elderly men.
• The elderly are becoming more racially and
  ethnically diverse.
• Poverty rates rise with advancing age.
• Great variability by health status

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Women Live LongerU.S. Population by Gender and
Age (2000)
All Ages
Age 65
Age 85
Male48.9
Male30.1
Male41.6
Female51.1
Female58.4
Female69.9
Source of data US Census Bureau, Resident
Population Estimates of the United States by Age
and Sex, 2000
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Older Women More Likely to Live AloneLiving
Arrangements of Older Adults in U.S. (1998)
WOMEN
MEN
Source of data US Census Bureau, Current
Population Survey, P20-514, March 1998
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Differences in Life ExpectanciesAt Age 65 (1998)
Source of data National Vital Statistics Report,
Vol. 47, No. 13, December 24, 1998
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Projected ChangesRacial Background of U.S.
Elderly (2050)
Note Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any
race. Source of data U.S. Census Bureau, We
the American Elderly, September 1993.
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Income, 65 Households
Source Civic Ventures Fact Sheet on Older
Americans
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Change in Median Net Worth of 65 Households
1984 - 2001

• 1984
• Average 98,900
• Whites 113,400
• Blacks 25,600

• 2001
• Average 179,800
• Whites 205,000
• Blacks 41,000

Source Panel Study of Income Dynamics
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Older Adults More Likely to Have Disabilities
Source of data Current Population Reports,
Americans with Disabilities, 1994-95, P70-61,
August 1997.
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http//www.census.gov
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Factors Related to Older Peoples Engagement in
the Three Spheres

• HOME
• CAREGIVING will place increasing strain on baby
  boomers and younger old people

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Value and Cost of Informal Caregiving

• 12.8 million Americans need care
• 7.3 million are 65 and older
• The value of informal caregiving is estimated at
  196 billion per year
• Informal caregiving exceeds nursing home and home
  care expenses by 81 billion
• Caregiving costs U.S. businesses 11.4 billion
  annually
• Caregivers lose up to 659,139 over a lifetime

Geriatric Social Work Initiative, San Jose State
University, College of Social Work
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Factors Related to Older Peoples Engagement in
the Three Spheres

• WORK
• LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION is increasing at older
  ages and policy thrusts will increase it more

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Reimagining America AARPs Blueprint for the
Future. 2005
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By 2045, older workers add 3 trillion/yr (9) to
GDP
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Factors Related to Older Peoples Engagement in
the Three Spheres

• COMMUNITY
• Volunteering, but also work in paid employment is
  higher with increased education

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Older Adults as Volunteers
Age 55-64 Age 65-74 Age 75
Percentage who volunteer 50.3 46.6 43.0
Tot. volunteers 11.9 million   8.5 million   7.1 million 
Avg weekly hours per volunteer   3.3 hours   3.6 hours   3.1 hours 
Total time volunteered annually   4.8 billion hrs   1.6 billion hrs 1.1 billion hrs

•  

Source Independent Sector, Americas Senior
Volunteers, June 2000
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What the Demographic Data Tell Us

• The population is aging and the older adult
  population is the fastest growing sector
• Older adults becoming more racially and
  ethnically diverse.

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What the Demographic Data Tell Us

• Additional sources of diversity such as
  education, health, and family status suggest a
  highly variable constituency for libraries and
  museums and for civic engagement initiatives
• The majority of older adults report good health
  and many are able to work and contribute to
  family and society

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What the Demographic Data Fail to Tell Us

• Age means different things to different subgroups
  
• The meaning of age is changing rapidly

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How Old Was Whistlers Mother When Painted?
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How Old Was Whistlers Mother When Painted?

• Born in 1804
• Painted in 1871
• She was 67 years old when painted

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Inuit and Cree EldersPencil portraits by Gerald
Kuehlwww.portraintsofthenorth.com

• Elissapee Tunnuq, Baker Lake, Nunavut, b.1928,
  volunteers youth camps, passing on traditional
  knowledge
• Mariano Aupilardjuk, Rankin Inlet, Nunavut, b.
  1923. Travels across Canada teaching traditional
  knowledge to young people
• Lottie Moore, Cree, Nelson House, Manitoba, 104
  yrs old, raised many children in addition to her
  own

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Acknowledgments

• Danielle Borasky, Associate Director for Library
  and Information Services, UNC Institute on Aging,
  and the Digital Carousel on the IOA website
• Mary Altpeter, Associate Director for Program
  Development, UNC Institute on Aging