Social Vulnerability (to Environmental and Climatic Change)

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Social Vulnerability (to Environmental and
Climatic Change)

Evan Fraser and Andy Dougill, School of Earth
and Environment, University of Leeds
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Social Vulnerability (to Environmental
Climatic Change)

• Introductory Lecture (35 minutes) Climate
  Change, Food Security Coping Strategies
• Livelihoods Analysis Integration with
  Environmental Research Case Studies and
  Research Challenges
• Group Exercise (35 minutes) on Drought Impacts
  on Global Food System
• Research Programme Planning Challenge (35
  minutes)
• Wrap-up (15 minutes) Challenges for Future
  Research Programmes Interdisciplinary
  Environmental Research Agenda

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LECTURE

• Sustainability Science as academic context
• Impact of climate change on food security
• Lots of examples historically of climate causing
  mass problems (Maya, Ethiopia)
• Need to predict impact
• First generation of simple models
• Links to ongoing social science livelihood
  vulnerability research reasons for these
• Approaches African Case studies
• Global Models of Food Trade and Aid System
• Briefing on Group Exercise Drought in American
  Grain Belt

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Sustainability Research Strategies

• Sustainability science differs to a considerable
  degree in structure, methods and content from
  science as we know it (Kates et al., 2001,
  p.641). It must -
• Span range of diverse scales (e.g. globalisation
  local farming practices)
• Account for temporal inertia urgency of
  problems
• Deal with functional complexities of societal
  root causes of environmental problems
• Recognise the wide range of outlooks on the use
  of knowledge within both science and society
• Need to Rethink Science

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What role for Environmentalists?

• Have we reached limits of where env science can
  go?
• Public awareness achieved, but actions still
  needed by all to challenge worrying trends
• Environmentalism now driven more by local
  societies ( need for identities in globalised
  world) than by science
• Needs to be more closely tied to Social Democracy
  groups to push agendas forward towards social
  political change
• Need to put People, power politics before
  conservation and CO2

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Global Hunger Map - FAO 2000
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Social / Political Context

• MDG 1, Target 2 Halve between 1990 and 2015,
  the proportion of people who suffer from hunger
• In South Asia the challenge is improving the
  distribution of plentifully available food
• In Sub-Saharan Africa the challenge also involves
  ?agricultural productivity or better connection
  to aid / trade

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Global Trends in Food Production
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Global Environmental Degradation Poverty Links

• Global National Degradation Estimates
• Degradation - Poverty - Famine links
• Added complexity due to climatic change impacts

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Global Map of Predicted Climate Changes
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US Grain yields and IPCC predictions
http//www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/agriculture/draf
t-report/chapter3.html Adams, R., Rosenzweig,
C., Pearl, R., Ritchie, J., Mccarl, B., Glyer,
J., Curry, R., Jones, J., Boote, K. Allen, L.
(1990) Global climate change and U.S.
Agriculture. Nature, 345, 219-224.
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Limitations of Current Modelling Approaches

• Assumes logical, immediate behaviour of farmers
  (e.g. to swap crop type, livestock breed etc.)
• No realistic input of local environmental
  conditions (e.g. field scale soil conditions
  etc.).
• No real evidence of global models providing
  useful outputs to positively affect farming
  practices and livelihoods

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Need for Bottom Up Participatory Studies

• Examples exist throughout the developing world
  of science-driven transfer of technology that
  have failed to improve food security or poverty
  problems
• Rangelands Tragedy of Commons removed access to
  resources for poor removed traditional
  management systems
• Mixed Farming Zones Expensive investment in
  soil and water conservation projects (e.g.
  terracing, machinery) that have failed due to
  mis-understanding of local social envtl context

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Problems of Past Interventions

• All spheres of Overseas Development Assistance
  experienced problems in effectiveness
• Delusion and disappointment, failures and crimes
  have been the steady companions of development
  and they tell a common story it did not work
• Sachs, 1995 p.1
• From the early colonial era to the present,
  attempts have been made to introduce SWC measures
  in a wide range of settings, yet many have
  failed.
• Scoones et al., 1996 p.1
• The last 30 years have seen the unremitting
  failure of livestock development projects across
  Africa
• Scoones, 1994 p.3
• For every problem there is a solution that is
  simple, direct wrong

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Conventional approaches to Development
Intervention

• Standard solutions to standard problems - often
  focused on mechanical conservation of soil,
  reducing overgrazing based on ecological
  indicator species
• Often strictly enforced against desires of local
  people undermining traditional practices
• Lack of local involvement meant poorly maintained
  after initial expenditure
• Experience shows - Aid can Workwhen local
  learning enabled
• How do we learn appropriate aid??

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Problems for Soils and Land Degradation
Researchers

• Requires a completely new way of doing research
  to match holistic view of farming systems
  farmers livelihoods
• Soil science has been brilliantly informed by
  reductionist physics and chemistry, poorly
  informed by ecology and geography, largely
  uninformed by the social sciences
• Swift (1998) quoted from Scoones et al., 2001
• Land degradation cannot be judged independently
  of its spatial, temporal, economic, environmental
  cultural context. Evaluations are therefore
  almost infinitely variable very dynamic
• Warren, 2002 p.49.
• Key aspect is that Environmental Change ?
  Degradation
• Global / regional / national estimates contain
  major uncertainties / oversimplifications

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Alternative Sustainability Assessments
Sustainable Livelihoods Approach

• SL a way of thinking about objectives, scope
  and priorities for development, formalised by
  many development agencies (DFID, UNDP, World Bank
  etc.)
• Formalises need for integrated social, economic,
  political environmental basis for research
• A livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets
  (both material and social) and activities
  required for a means of living. A livelihood is
  sustainable when it can cope with and recover
  from stresses and shocks and maintain or enhance
  its capabilities and assets both now and in the
  future, while not undermining the natural
  resource base
• Chambers and Conway, 1992
• See www.livelihoods.org

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Sustainable Livelihoods Research Framework (DFID,
1999)
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Need bits building SLA methods / pentagon ??
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Views Through Time

• SLA enables a picture of the here and now but
  we also need information through time on how
  people institutions react (cope or adapt) to
  environmental changes
• Oral histories (or appreciative enquiry)
  techniques can be used to gain information on
  peoples ability to adapt (social resilience?) to
  specific events / shocks (e.g. drought / flood)
• More difficult to discuss more gradual changes /
  trends (e.g. ecological change, nutrient
  depletion or climatic desiccation)

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Soils SL Research in Practice Case Study 1
Niger

• See Sahelian Soils debates of Warren et al., 2001
  The Geographical Journal, 167(4), 324-341.
• Examines whether capitals framework helps
  assessments of sustainability strength
• Strong sustainability - no loss of natural
  capital (e.g. soil)
• Sensible sustainability - conversion of some
  natural into other forms of capital, increase
  total capital base over time
• Weak sustainability - just increase total
  capital

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Sahelian Soil Erosion - E. Niger

• Despite high rates of erosion, we find it
  difficult to decide whether the system is
  sustainable (using the capitals or any other
  framework). It is even dubious whether
  sustainability is an urgent concern
• Warren et al., 2001 p.324
• Other (more important?) concerns -
• Rainfall (climate change)
• pests
• lack of labour / illness
• prices
• Livestock / urbanisation futures gt why conserve
  soils ??

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Problems of Environmental Sustainability

• Drive for soil conservation from agronomists
  soil scientists, rather than from local
  communities
• Sustainability of natural capital conflicts with
  the sustainability of livelihoods (social
  sustainability)
• to be socially sustainable, some farmers must
  engage in practices that lead to erosion (Warren
  et al., 2001 p.333)
• How can you monitor / assess the critical
  natural capacity needed for sensible
  sustainability ?
• Often relates to maintaining environmental
  diversity that enables risk management by
  societies
• Often less visible environmental changes
  (nutrient depletion) more important than visible
  soil erosion
• Concept has serious methodological difficulties

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Sustainability Science New Methods of Soil
Degradation Assessment

• Must involve farmers in assessment process to
  focus on issues of real concern that impact on
  yields
• Usually involves simple, reliable degradation
  indicators that are well known to farmers e.g.
  
• yellow leaves for N deficiency
• stunted patchy crop growth general nutrient
  deficiency
• scorching of leaf margins, restricted root growth
  and plant death low pH leading to metal
  toxicity
• See Stocking and Murnaghan (2001) for excellent
  review

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Soils SL Research in Practice Case Study 2
South Africa / Botswana

• See Dougill et al. (2002) and Twyman et al.
  (2004)
• Aim - combine different information sources for
  simple and applicable land degradation assessment
  and subsequent agricultural extension advice
• 1. Inventory of conventional environmental
  indicators of soil degradation livelihoods
  survey identifying farmers concerns
• 2. Participatory nutrient budget studies - farmer
  interviews aimed at quantifying nutrient fluxes
• 3. Soil chemical analysis (N, P, K, pH OM)from
  fields chosen by farmer
• 4. Soil degradation discussions - two-way
  discussion of soil degradation constraints on
  farming practices and crop yields
• 5. Local and national workshops

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Research Results - Key Findings

• Field-scale nutrient budget analysis highlight
  that in drought year nutrient inputs gt outputs
  when farmers add fertilisers - excess nutrients
  will increase risk of soil acidification
• Manure inputs alone lead to soil nutrient
  depletion (even for low rainfall study year)
• Perception of need for no fertiliseraddition to
  groundnuts leading tosoil nutrient depletion
• Integrated nutrient management as used by 2 of
  15 study farmerscapable of avoiding most soil
  degradation processes

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Opportunities Provided by Integrating Information

• Simultaneous collection of several indicators of
  land degradation ( processes causing it) leads
  to more applicable assessment of land degradation
  and relevance to land users - better assessment
• Shared understanding of land degradation
  pressures provides the basis for Learning and
  Action - better management
• Improved extension advice can involve some
  farmers in experimentation, monitoring and
  evaluation of adaptations
• Lack of farmer interest in integrated nutrient
  management decisions (due to non-farming
  livelihood options, or due to lack of manure
  caused by decline in herd size) will lead to
  difficulties in ensuring long-term environmental
  sustainability - i.e. social not an environmental
  problem?

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Community-Based Natural Resource Management
Challenges

• UN FAO now formalising farmer-led assessment
  approaches to attempt more applicable degradation
  assessments
• Starts from Livelihoods analysis of farmers
  concerns (threats) opportunities (strengths)
  with eventual aim to provide improved development
  support
• Vulnerability / resilience assessment needs
  analysis through time in range of interconnected
  systems (environmental, socio-economic
  political)

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Problems with Existing Approaches

• Timescales long v. short-term (shocks or trends
  require different responses)
• System memory / inertia reflective approaches
  need to be tested to assess their reliability and
  current value
• Prediction / anticipatory problems on what
  farmers will actually do in different situations
• Links between scales scaling from the local to
  the national and global

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A further link slide ??
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THE TASK background

• A govt funding agency is concerned with the
  possibility of a drought in the US.
• This is a key regions for three reasons
• 1. historically droughts have hit this area.
• 2. this area provides food for all sorts of uses
  and all around the world
• 3. this areas is using up its ground water

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US Drought in the 1950s
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(No Transcript)
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World Grain Flows
Source Figure 24 CIA, 1999. Handbook of
International Economic Statistics. Available on
line http//www.cia.gov/cia/di/products/hies/
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What the food produced in the US is used for
Taken From Heller, M. and Keoleian, G. (2000),
Life Cycle-Based Sustainability Indicators for
Assessment of the U.S. Food System. Ann Arbor,
MI Center for Sustainable Systems, School of
Natural Resources and Environment University of
Michigan.
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The tasks specifics

• The agency would like you to develop an
  interdisciplinary set of linked research projects
  to identify and predict the global effects of
  drought in this region.
• List the key factors that determine food
  production and distribution from this critical
  region.
• Use a flow chart to begin sketching out the ways
  these interact.
• Use flow chart to identify
• 1. research projects
• 2. data requirements
• 3. disciplinary perspectives required to
  evaluate.

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Legend
Temperature
Ground water
Rainfall
Land availability
Crop choice
Food flows
Environmental science
Food production (yield)
Livelihoods and economics
Policy and market incentives
Distribution of food
Policies and institutions
Ground water
Rainfall
Temperature
Domestic consumption
Food aid
Feed for livestock
Export
Food production (yield)
Attracts political attention
Works for wage
Subsistence agriculture
Works for wage
Wealthy international consumer
Poor international consumer
Enough food?
Not enough food?
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Wrap up

• Seem ambitious ????
• The research councils are demanding this
• Key quotes from RC brochures
• RELU and QUEST as key examples of this sort of
  project in action.

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Why this matters to you - Future Environmental
Science Agendas

• Strong Government / NERC support
• Some of the most interesting scientific advances
  occur at the intersection of disciplines
  Chancellors Budget Statement March 2006
• Interdisciplinary science is core business for
  NERC the social, political and economic
  sciences and engineering are becoming
  increasingly involved Alan Thorpe, NERC Chief
  Executive, Planet Earth, Summer 2006
• Many Interdisciplinary Initiatives
• Leeds Strategic Investment in Climate
  Environmental Change
• Reading Walker Institute soon to be launched
• UEA CSERGE, Tyndall etc.

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Examples of Interdisciplinary Programmes In Action

• UK scale programmes are being supported e.g.
  ESRC/NERC/BBSRC Rural Economy and Land Use (RELU)
  programme - http//www.relu.ac.uk/ (24 million
  from 2004 09), but no Climate Change related
  research funded!
• Challenge remains for current future programmes
  (e.g. QUEST !) as to how to facilitate
  interdisciplinary research that addresses
  long-term climatic environmental changes in a
  people policy-relevant manner

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QUEST 3 (Hopefully) The Next Step Towards Being
Joined-Up
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Some sort of wrap up it aint easy but is
needed type quote!? Thank You !

• Questions / Reflections Welcome Throughout Rest
  of the Day !!