Vulnerability of Food Systems to GEC

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Vulnerability of Food Systems to GEC
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Vulnerability- general definition

• Vulnerability implies HARM or a negative
  consequence from which is difficult to recover
• Is a function of exposure to hazards, sensitivity
  AND coping capacity (internal and external)
• Arises from multiple stresses
• Is the result of a process
• Is dynamic and differential

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GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type,
frequency magnitude of environmental threats
Capacity to cope with /or recover from GEC
FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY / VULNERABILITY
Exposure to GEC
SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource
accessibility, economic conditions, etc.
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GECAFS perspective MULTIPLE stressors produce
vulnerabilities that are multi-dimensional
Currency Fluctuations
Economic Recession
Water Pollution
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
Floods, Droughts
Political Unrest
FOOD AVAILABILITY
HIV-AIDS
War
Climate Change
Change in Trading Agreements
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Social or biophysicalvulnerability?

• Social Vulnerability is socially determined and
  is a function of access to assets or resources,
  diversity of options, institutional, policy and
  market structures
• Biophysical depends upon understanding of
  ecosystems
• Ecologists (ala Holling) mention wealth and
  diversity, connections/ controllability, adaptive
  capacity

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Adaptive capacity

• Social ability or capacity or opportunity to
  modify processes or characteristics so as to
  better cope with existing or anticipated external
  stresses
• Function of assets and access to them
• Ecological resilience
• How much shock system can take without change
• Ability to self-organize
• Ability to adapt and learn
• Often function of slow variables, such as
  reservoirs of nutrients, ecosystem diversity or
  heterogeneity

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Food systems

• are social and ecological, or coupled systems
• Theoretically appealing, but how to describe in
  practice?
• Environmental management is function of social,
  political and institutional mechanisms.
• Look at the potential hazards from GEC in the
  context of socio-economic change

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The Main Elements of Food Systems Drivers,
Activities, Outcomes

• Wider Societal Interests
• relate to Food Systems
• Food Security
• Environment Security
• Other Securities

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Vulnerability of IGP food systems

• Function of
• The vulnerable parameter
• Stress
• Exposure
• Sensitivity
• Coping capacity or resilience
• In context of multiple stressors
• Note time and scale
• Logic of why vulnerable (process) recent
  history!

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Exercise

• In the same groups as yesterday (sites 1, 2, 3
  and 4, 5) identify five to eight food system
  outcome determinants (or activities) that are
  vulnerable to GEC-induced changes in water
  availability
• Explain WHY!

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Exercise part 2

• Identify five food system outcome determinants
  (or activities) that have adaptive capacity in
  the face of GEC-induced changes to water
  availability
• Explain WHY!

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Space and time

• Why an issue for vulnerability?
• DIFFERENTIAL and DYNAMIC
• Stress can be chronic, cumulative or one time
• Different locations experience the stress
  differently
• How to capture this?
• Define who, where and when
• What tools do we have for this?

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GECAFS Research Sites in the IGP
Ludihana, Central Punjab, India wheat and rice
predominate, slow to stagnant productivity
growth, groundwater dependent, lots of
investment, high income levels, functional policy
support.
Ruhani Basin, Terai of Nepal rice preferred,
transition zone, seasonal flooding,
out-migration, sharecropping dominates,
urbanization increasing.
Gujarat, Punjab, Pakistan wheat dominates,
food self-sufficient, mixed irrigation, high
level of infrastructure, moderate income,
policies function somewhat.
Greater Faridpur, Bangladesh rice dominates,
flooding and concern over salt water intrusion,
low income levels, government institutions fail.
Vaisahali District, Bihar, India rice
preferred, low infrastructure investment,
flooding, low income levels, out migration,
little government policy support.
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Tools for space/ time

• Map hot spots
• Ecological
• Social?
• With GIS layers can show multiple impacts and
  differentials
• Time?
• Need historical maps, calendars, etc.
• Causal maps of vulnerability?
• Problem trees? Spider grams?

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Quantifying vulnerability indicators

• Indicators are often proxies for what we cannot
  measure directly
• What data can we find to represent the
  vulnerability of the food system parameters we
  have identified?
• Focus on processes
• Go through our tables
• Correlations or significant relationships?

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Examples of indicators of vulnerability

• Webhe etal look at three components of adaptive
  capacity
• Access to resources
• Flexibility
• Stability
• For each context, determine indicators

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Examples of indicators of vulnerability

• Adger et al set of indicators to evaluate
  national level vulnerability to climate change

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Poverty and vulnerability

• Relationship is much debated in the social
  literature
• Poverty not the same as vulnerability but can
  contribute to it (or vice versa)
• BFP specifically interested in poverty reduction
• What can we say for the specific food systems we
  have described for the IGP?

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Poverty vs vulnerability in IGP food systems
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Which concept is more useful?

• Poverty
• Vulnerability