FAO

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FAO
CGIAR
WMO
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Fundamental Questions

• How will Global Environmental Change affect the
  vulnerability of food systems in different
  regions?
• How might food systems be adapted to cope with
  GEC so as to enhance food security?
• What would be the consequences of adaptation
  options for environmental and socioeconomic
  conditions?

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Global Environmental Change Changes in the
biogeophysical environment caused or strongly
influenced by human activities
For example changes in
Land cover soils Atmospheric composition
Climate variability means Water availability
quality
Nitrogen availability cycling Biodiversity Sea
currents salinity Sea level
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Food Systems

• Activities
• Producing food
• Processing packaging food
• Distributing retailing food
• Consuming food
• and
• Outcomes of the activities contributing to
• Food Security
• Environment
• Other societal interests
• both influenced by the interactions between and
  within biogeophysical and human environments
  (drivers)

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Food System Outcomes related to Food Security
Key Elements
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability
• Allocation
• Preference

• Nutritional Value
• Social Value
• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production
• Distribution
• Exchange

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Global Environmental Change and Food Systems
Research
Conditions Scenarios
Vulnerability Impacts
Feedbacks
Decision Support
Current Food Systems
Adapted Food Systems
Adaptation
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Research Approaches

• 1. Conceptual Methodological Research
• Food Systems Concepts
• Vulnerability Concepts
• Scenario Construction
• Decision Support Systems
• 2. Food Systems Research in
• Indo-Gangetic Plain
• Caribbean
• Southern Africa

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Scenario Development questions

1. What are the plausible future changes in
   environmental and socioeconomic conditions that
   will affect food systems?
2. What elements of global scenarios are most
   important for regional-level food system
   analyses?
3. What what are the best approaches for linking
   global scenarios to regional scale so as to
   capture regional-level factors relevant to food
   systems?

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ICSU Grant to GECAFS Scenarios to aid regional
food security policy formulation (2005)

1. Improve understanding of the underlying
   interactions between food systems and GEC
2. Analyse elements of global scenarios important
   for regional-level issues
3. Determine appropriate methods for linking global
   scenarios to regional scale
4. Develop conceptual frameworks for scenario
   construction at regional scale
5. Construct a set of prototype scenarios for the
   Caribbean region as a proof of concept

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ICSU Grant to GECAFS Scenarios to aid regional
food security policy formulation
Apr Rome WS on methods for multi-scale linking
in scenarios May-Aug Review global scenario
approaches for GECAFS interests Plan Caribbean
Scenarios exercise Sep Regional WS1 Outline
main uncertainties of Caribbean Scenarios for
GECAFS research Outline Focal
Questions Develop first draft scenarios set
Sep-Nov Develop prototype Caribbean scenarios
using two cross- scale methods Nov Regional
WS2 Finalise prototype scenarios Compare
cross-scale methods Dec Finalise Report and
develop follow-up