FAO

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FAO
CGIAR
WMO
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Fundamental Questions

• How will Global Environmental Change affect the
  vulnerability of food systems in different
  regions?
• How might food systems be adapted to cope with
  GEC so as to enhance food security?
• What would be the consequences of adaptation
  options for environmental and socioeconomic
  conditions?

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Key Terms

• Global Environmental Change
• changes in the biogeophysical environment
• Food Systems
• an interconnected set of processes and activities
• Food Security
• a state or condition underpinned by food systems

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Key Terms

• Global Environmental Change
• changes in the biogeophysical environment
• Food Systems
• an interconnected set of processes and activities

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A Food System

• is a set of dynamic interactions between and
  within the human and biogeophysical environments
  which result in the production, processing,
  distribution, preparation and consumption of
  food.
• (definition based on FAO viewpoint)
• should involve interactions designed to provide
  food security.
• is based on three major components,
• each comprising three key elements,
• each influenced by many determinants.

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Components of Food Systems Key Elements
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Example Determinants of Food Systems
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Food Systems

• operate through connections between related
  determinants operating in one or more major
  components.
• fail to deliver food security when determinants,
  and/or the links between them, are disrupted by
  GEC or other stresses.
• can be adapted to reduce their vulnerability to
  GEC by
• identifying which related determinants are
  particularly sensitive to GEC
• enhancing effective determinants
• restoring disrupted determinants

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Determinants perspective of key elements helps
analyse external stressors/drivers on Food Systems
Currency Fluctuations
Economic Recession
Water Pollution
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability
• Allocation
• Preference

• Nutritional Value
• Social Value
• Food Safety

Floods, Droughts
Political Unrest
FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production
• Distribution
• Exchange

HIV-AIDS
War
Climate Change
Change in Trading Agreements
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Key Terms

• Global Environmental Change
• changes in the biogeophysical environment
• Food Systems
• an interconnected set of processes and activities
• Food Security
• a state or condition underpinned by food systems

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Food Security

• is underpinned by food systems
• exists when all people, at all times, have
  physical and economic access to sufficient, safe,
  and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs
  and food preferences for an active and healthy
  life.
• (definition from the World Food Summit)
• emphasizes access for individuals, households,
  communities to food.
• can be effectively researched via a food systems
  approach

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GECAFS Goal
To determine strategies to cope with the impacts
of GEC on food systems and to assess the
environmental and socioeconomic consequences of
adaptive responses aimed at improving food
security.
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Global Environmental Change and Food Systems
Research
Conditions Scenarios
Vulnerability Impacts
Feedbacks
Decision Support
Current Food Systems
Adapted Food Systems
Adaptation
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Food Systems Concepts questions

• What parameters describe food systems so as to
  facilitate GECAFS research?
• Within given food systems, which parameters are
  most sensitive to GEC?
• Who are the agents within each major food system,
  what are their roles, and how do they interact?

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Vulnerability of Food Systems to GEC questions

• Which components of food systems are presently
  most vulnerable to environmental stress and which
  stresses are most threatening?
• How might these vulnerabilities change in the
  future and to what extent might GEC either
  heighten or mitigate these vulnerabilities?
• Which strategies, involving both the private and
  public sectors, will most likely reduce food
  system vulnerabilities and thereby increase food
  security?

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Scenario Development research questions

• What are the plausible future changes in
  environmental and socioeconomic conditions that
  will affect food systems?
• What elements of global scenarios are most
  important for regional-level food system
  analyses?
• How best can global scenarios be linked to
  regional scale so as to capture regional-level
  factors relevant to food systems?

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GECAFS Goal
To determine strategies to cope with the impacts
of GEC on food systems and to assess the
environmental and socioeconomic consequences of
adaptive responses aimed at improving food
security.
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GECAFS Research Relevance Partnerships
Science Agendas
Development Agendas
Policy Makers
Resource Managers
Science
Socio- economic
Natural
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Decision Support Systems questions

• What is the best way to determine the information
  needs of advisors to policymakers, resource
  managers and other stakeholders regarding GEC and
  food issues?
• How can DSS best be developed to help analyse the
  socioeconomic and environmental tradeoffs of
  adaptation options?
• What is the best methodological approach to DSS
  development to optimise communication with
  stakeholders?

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Caribbean
Indo-Gangetic Plain
Predominant Diet Pattern Mixed, mainly imported
(majority) Roots/tubers fish (sig.
minority) Key Policy Issues Food security and
self-sufficiency Trade policies and
competitiveness Exporting quality produce
processed products Poverty in rural communities
Main GEC Issues Climate variability extreme
events Water availability Land degradation Sea
currents salinity Biodiversity loss Sea level
Main GEC Issues Climate variability Glacier and
snow melt Water availability quality Nitrogen
availability cycling GHG emissions
Predominant Diet Pattern Rice fish (east
IGP) Wheat/rice meat (west IGP) Key Policy
Issues Increased agric. production Limiting env.
degradation Improved socioecon.
conditions Reduced labour migration
Southern Africa
Main GEC Issues Climate variability
ENSO Climate mean values Water availability
quality Land degradation Biodiversity loss
Predominant Diet Pattern Meat Maize (south)
Meat Tubers (north) Mixed (significant
minority) Key Policy Issues Food security and
self-sufficiency Regional integration and
trade Rural infrastructure and market
access Disaster response and safety nets
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GECAFS Conceptual Research
GECAFS Regional Research
Conceptual and methodological research, based on
science and policy issues identified in regional
projects.
Policy-relevant science at the regional level,
based on improved conceptual understanding and
methods.