Statistical Analysis

1
Statistical Analysis
2
Purpose of Statistical Analysis

• To check statistically the purity of electoral
  rolls
• To identify high focus category of electors for
  improvement in electoral rolls e.g. Youth, women
  etc.
• To identity high focus geographical areas for
  improvement of electoral rolls e.g. Urban areas,
  etc.

3
What analysis is done

• Elector Population ratio The Ratio of electors
  to total population should be equal to the ratio
  of 18 population to total population. For this
  purpose the population projected to the current
  year needs to be calculated from published census
  population and the multiplication factor based on
  decadal growth rate
• Sex Ratio Sex ratio of electoral roll should be
  the same as sex ratio of population as published
  in the census
• Age Cohorts The number of persons in a
  particular age group should match the umber of
  electors in that age group. For this purpose the
  age group wise population is calculated on the
  basis of census data
• EPIC and photo coverage EPIC and photo coverage
  should be for 100 electors in the electoral roll

4
What are the pitfalls and precautions

• Statistical analysis is only a tool. Actual
  addition or deletion should be done only by
  following the procedure given in the Registration
  of Electors Rules, 1960 and not based on
  statistical analysis
• There can be many artifacts in the data e.g.
  there is heaping of numbers in ages with whole
  numbers. People tend to give their names as
  approximately 20 or 30 rather than 19 or 31
• Deviations from the expected in statistical
  analysis may be explainable by local factors e.g.
  in-migration or out-migration etc.

5
Statistical Analysis at Poling Stations

• Population at polling station should be taken
  from actual door to door survey at least in the
  election year and should be kept updated at all
  times by BLO
• BLO should maintain a register (BLO register) and
  statistical analysis should be a part of BLO
  register

6
When should statistical analysis be done

• As pre-revision exercise to determine categories
  of voters and areas for special focus
• Information in format 1 to 8 must be sent along
  with justification for observed deviations to ECI
  when seeking permission for final publication of
  rolls
• For making the action plan for SVEEP

7
Parts of BLO Register Statement -1

• SUMMARY OF LAST REVISION OF ELECTORAL ROLLS.
• Date of publication of final roll in last
  revision
• Total No. of voters in the part.
• Total population of part/village
• Total No. of male voters
• Total No. of female voters.
• Gender ratio Female voter X 100
• Total No. of
  voters in the part
• Gender population ratio Total No. of voters X
  200
• 
  Total population of the part (from Statement 5).
• Age cohort of the part
• 18 to 20 age group No of voters in 18-20 age
  groupX 100
• Total
  no of voters in the Part
• 21 to 29 age group No of voters in 21-29 age
  groupX 100
• Total
  no of voters in the Part
• 30 to 35, etc., etc.

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Parts of BLO Register Statement -2

• CONFIRMATION.
• House No.
• Name of the voter
• Name of head of family
• Relation to Head of the family
• telephone no/ contact no
• Whether registered as voter in this part Y / N
• If not registered in this part, give address
  where registered
• Are there any members of the family eligible for
  registering in Form-6 for current revision Y /
  N (If yes fill up Statement -4)
• Are there any members of the family eligible for
  registering in the next revision Y / N ( If
  Yes fill up Statement 4A)
• Whether EPIC issued Y / N
• Whether EPIC available with the Voter Y / N
• EPIC No.
• Whether address is correct? Y / N
• If not, give correct address
• Living at this address since how many years
• Any family member married/shifted since last
  revision? Y / N (if yes then fill up statement
  4)
• Any member dead since last revision? Y/N (if yes,
  fill up Statement-6)
• Possibility of temporary shifting in the next one
  year Y / N

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Parts of BLO Register Statement -3

• SHIFTED VOTERS.
• House number
• Name
• Name of head of family
• Relation with the head of family
• EPIC issued Y/N
• EPIC No.
• Type of shifting Permanent / Temporary
• If temporary, then
• Purpose of shifting e.g. agricultural labor,
  temporary job, etc.
• Place of shifting
• Shifted since when From_________(give month)
  to ______(give month)
• Take a signed statement as per Form-1.
• If permanent, then
• Reason for shifting such as, marriage, job,
  education, etc.
• Place of shifting.
• Shifted since when Month_________,
  Year_________
• Panchanama as per Form 2

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Parts of BLO Register Statement -4

• ELIGIBILITY FOR FORM-6 IN CURRENT REVISION.
• House number.
• Name
• Name of the head of the family.
• relation with the head of the family
• EPIC issued Y/N
• EPIC No.
• Shifted within same part Y/N
• Shifted from another part / AC Y/N
• If yes then from which Part/AC
• When shifted Month_______, Year_______
• Whether fresh voter i.e. between the age 18 to 21
  Y / N
• If yes, whether completed form No.6 received Y
  / N

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Parts of BLO Register Statement -4A

• LIST OF VOTERS TO BE REGISTERED IN THE NEXT
  REVISION YEAR(on attaining age of 18 years).
• House No.
• Name
• Name of the head of the family.
• Date of birth
• will become eligible in revision of which year

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Parts of BLO Register Statement -5

• PART POPULATION.
• House No.
• Total No. of persons living in this house.

13
Parts of BLO Register Statement -6

• LIST OF VOTERS WHO HAVE EXPIRED
•  
• House No.
• Name
• Name of the head of family
• EPIC No.
• Date of death
• Death certificate made available Y? N
• If No, whether listed in Death Register
  maintained by Panchayat/ Nagarpalika /Municipal
  Corporation
• For serial no 7, death registration number and
  date

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Parts of BLO Register Statement -7

• PHOTO ELECTORAL ROLL
• House No.
• Name
• Name of the head of the family
• EPIC issued Y / N.
• EPIC No.
• Photograph obtained Y / N
• Signature of the voter

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Parts of BLO Register Statement -8

• NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PART.
• Number of newly constructed houses since last
  revision and the details
• Number of newly constructed buildings that have
  come up since last revision
• give details.
• 3. Number of newly constructed societies that
  have come up since last revision and their
  details.

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Parts of BLO Register Statement -9

• ANALYSIS
• Gender ratio of district
• Age cohort of district
• Elector population of District
• Likely reasons for deviation in gender ratio
• Likely reasons for deviation in age cohort
• Likely reasons for deviation in
  elector-population ratio

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Parts of BLO Register Statement -10

• SUMMARY OF CURRENT REVISION.
• Date of publication of final roll in current
  revision
• Total No. of voters in the part.
• Total population of part/village
• Total No. of male voters
• Total No. of female voters.
• Gender ratio Female voter X 100
• Total No. of voters in the part
• Gender population ratio Total No. of voters X
  200
• Total population of the part (from Statement 5).
• Age cohort of the part
• 18 to 20 age group No of voters in 18-20 age
  groupX 100
• Total no of voters in the Part
• 21 to 29 age group No of voters in 21-29 age
  groupX 100
• Total no of voters in the Part
•  
• 30 to 35, etc., etc.

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Parts of BLO Register Statement -11

• MAPPING OF GOVT. FUNCTIONARIES RESIDING IN THE
  PART
• House No.
• Name
• Name of the head of the family.
• EPIC No.
• Whether voter in the same part Y/N
• If not give part where he/she registered as
  voter.
• Designation in Government.
• Serving or Retired.
• Temporary or Permanent.
• Class - I, II, III or IV.
• Residing in the part since when