New Zealand

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New Zealand
Population structures and diversity
Climate change
Economic wealth Is it good enough?
Nothing is sacred Defining resource use
How we trade
Earthquake central shocks
Paying for the future Fiscal responsibility or
irresponsibility
A sclerosis of governance or not
Knowledge capacity
Identity, perception and culture
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Population Structures and Diversity
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Economic Wealth Is it Good Enough?
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Economic Wealth Is it Good Enough?
According Gareth Morgan (2006) New Zealand is on
the brink of a retirement tsunami, a tidal wave
of ageing baby boomers is about to swamp a
dwindling number of taxpayers.
Wealth Distribution Per Cohort (2007)
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How We Trade
Tourism and Agriculture comprise 65 of exports.
Trade and Enterprise (2010) Export Composition
in 2009 (58b)
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Source Statistics New Zealand (2010)
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Population ageing is important fiscally because
25 of government spending is currently spent on
the 12 of the population aged over
65. Population ageing is likely to cause a
slowdown in economic growth because of the shift
to a relatively smaller working-age population.
Government debt as a of GDP (Source New
Zealand Treasury)
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Degrees in tourism, performing arts, visual arts,
and graphic and design arts earned between 10 and
20 percent less than degrees in humanities.  A
tourism degree resulted in 11 more earning
compared to non graduates in the same field,
compared to the national average of 25 (Scott
2010)
Source OECD
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Listen to Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon discuss why
consumers wont wait here and the future of
mobile technologies here
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Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about NZ in 2008 Agree Disagree Neither agree or disagree Strongly agree Strongly disagree
NZ is a bit old-fashioned 15.59 45.49 21.28 1.06 16.02
NZ is a great place to raise a family 25.07 0.73 2.61 70.80 0.59
NZ is like Britain in the 1950s 6.64 35.48 30.49 1.09 25.87
NZ lives in Australia's shadow 23.39 40.44 15.16 2.51 18.17
NZ is doing a great job seizing all its opportunities in the global economy 31.65 21.74 37.73 5.12 3.20
Maori and Pacific Island cultures are an important part of what makes NZ unique 48.36 4.00 8.06 38.32 0.99
NZ is strongly environmentally conscious as a country 48.86 9.68 12.36 27.22 1.39
NZ puts too much emphasis on "work-life balance" 3.34 50.94 32.18 0.99 12.26
NZ "punches above its weight" in global affairs 33.30 23.42 31.78 7.93 3.14
NZ is too much of a career dead-end for the most talented Kiwis 38.32 23.62 26.69 8.72 2.35
NZ isn't really doing as well as Kiwis give themselves credit for 26.99 29.07 36.37 4.16 2.97
NZ is a great place to invest in business venture 27.22 14.77 53.12 3.11 1.26
I'm optimistic about NZ's economic future 53.22 10.14 29.34 6.21 0.79
NZ is a great place to retire 37.23 1.22 4.29 56.43 0.30
NZ arts, film and literature are world-class 45.56 7.73 20.55 24.51 1.06
NZ is doing a great job promoting its image in the rest of the world 52.82 4.53 10.80 30.99 0.53
NZ has really moved ahead in the last 10 years 45.85 6.31 22.93 22.93 1.65
But is this how others see us?
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To many New Zealanders, Rugby is the symbol of
national identity - the cornerstone of their
conversations, stories, life and culture.
Some people might see a New Zealand identity in
aspects of New Zealand history or in New Zealand
achievements in sporting, artistic or other
endeavours, while others might see it through a
sense of national characteristics or traits, or
through national symbols and icons. Mäori culture
may form one aspect of national identity, since
it is both unique to New Zealand and a part of
our identity in the outside world (Cultural
Identity 2009)
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"There have been numerous attempts since the
1980s to make improvements to regulatory
processes. The problem is that politicians have
poor incentives they must get re-elected, and
the political cycle is short. Politicians are
vulnerable to interest group pressure, and at
times invite that pressure by pandering to
various interest groups in search of votes. It's
unfortunate, but it's a fact of life in a
democracy (Hide 2010)
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New Zealands Global Competitiveness Index Results (Source WEF 2010) New Zealands Global Competitiveness Index Results (Source WEF 2010)
Pillars World Ranking
Institutions 5
Infrastructure 35
Macroeconomic Stability 33
Health and Primary Education 4
Higher Education and Training 11
Goods and Services Market Efficiency 8
Labour Market Efficiency 11
Financial Market Sophistication 3
Technological Readiness 23
Market Size 59
Business Sophistication 34
Innovation 23
Great improvements, but also scope for more
Innovation! (WEF, 2010)
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Nothing is sacred
California spends approximately 400 million
annually running national parks and beaches.
Californias budget deficit is now 24.3 billion
and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is proposing
closure of 220 state parks to reduce this deficit
(Young, 2009).
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According to the Its Our Fault project the
major fault running through Wellington is 50
less likely to rupture than previously thought.
New findings show the Wellington fault ruptures
every 900 years and last ruptured about 300 years
ago. Therefore, a catastrophic earthquake is
predicted for 600 years (GNS Science, 2009).
Watch the TV programme, Aftershock which
simulates an earthquake in Wellington
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• Its direct effects
• Shipping reasonably low value goods long
  distances increasingly unsustainable.
• Potential emissions trading regime, bio fuels and
  energy efficiency.
• Increases in temperatures of between 1.8 and 4.0
  degrees.
• Extreme weather, rising sea levels and changed
  rainfall patterns.
• Higher temperatures in the South may boost
  primary sector productivity.
• Relatively favourable climate may mean NZ becomes
  a preferred holiday destination (potential to
  attract talented migrants)
• Strengthen competitive position but disrupt
  global supply chains.