Diapositive 1

1
Impacts of air pollution on ecosystems, human
health and materials under different Gothenburg
Protocol scenarios
a LRTAP dataflow
A.C. Le Gall, S. Doytchinov, R. Fischer, M.
Forsius, H. Harmens, J.-P. Hettelingh, A.
Jenkins, M. Krzyzanowski, B. Kvæven, M. Lorenz,
L. Lundin, G.E. Mills, F. Moldan, M. Posch, B.L.
Skjelkvåle, J. Tidblad, R. F. Wright
All WGEs ICPs and TF and EMEP
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How do the data flow between these groups?
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WGE indicators analysis Data needs
Eutrophication
Acidification
Ozone
Multi-pollutant
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Projections/scenarios available

• NAT 2000 Historic data (partly Eurostat)
• NAT 2020 Assumed national emissions (reported
  from the countries)
• PRI 2020 and 2030 Projections (mainly) by PRIMES
  an emissions energy consumption model
• MFR 2020 Maximum feasible reduction plan how
  much is possible to reduce with present day
  technology
• Data as available in October 2010

Data provided by TF IAM / CIAM and MSCW
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EMEP-WGE-WGSR data flow
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ICP IM Decrease of impacts is expected at
various sites
Eutrophication

• The number of sites impacted decreases by about
  20 in 2020 compared with baseline (70 with MFR)
• The magnitude of the impact is reduced by about
  40 with baseline in 2020 (80 with MFR)

Number of sites protected /not protected with
respect to critical loads for eutrophication for
terrestrial ecosystems
Average exceedance of the critical loads for
eutrophication for terrestrial ecosystems
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ICP MM modelling at european scale confirms
sites previsions
Eutrophication
CCE Status report
NAT2000 NAT2020 MFR2020
EU27 74 61 24
All Europe 52 38 14
EU27 333 179 35
All Europe 185 102 18
areas at risk of eutrophication
Accumulated Average Exceedance of critical loads
for eutrophication
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ICP Waters dynamic modelling shows recovery and
its limits
Acidification

• Good match of modelled and monitoring data
• Conclusion (with NAT2020)
• ANC goes over ANC limit and levels off
• Bad years, acidification may occur
• NAT, PRI are equivalent as far as water
  acidification is concerned

Highly sensitive sites will not recover even
under MFR.
See presentation by Brit Lisa Skjelkvåle for
further details
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ICP VegetationOzone is of concern for food
security
Ozone
POD6 (mmol.m-²) phytotoxic ozone dose
NAT2000
NAT2020
The magnitude of the impact will be reduced The
areas (intensely) impacted are reduced But the
impact will still occur in a large part of Europe
Ozone impact on wheat production
See presentation by Gina Mills for further details
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ICP Materials Effects on materials will
decrease but will not disappear by 2020
Multi-pollutant
NAT2000
MFR2020
NAT2020
More intense effects are expected in urban areas
than shown on maps.
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EMEP-WGE-WGSR data flow
TF measurement modelling (MSCW, MSCE)
TF IAM
WGSR
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Overall conclusions

• Similar observations from all groups and for all
  effects
• Area impacted decreases
• Magnitude of impact decreases

Area still at risk in 2020
EMEP 1 - 4 EU 27 2 7
EMEP 14 38 EN 27 24 61
EMEP Wheat 82 Tomatoes 51
0.1 0.3
Acidification

Eutrophication
Ozone
Multi-pollutant
underestimated
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Conclusions to WGSR

• Monitored and modelled indicators indicate only
  limited improvements in eutrophication status.
  Reduction in N emissions remain insufficient to
  decrease areas of risk for eutrophication.
• Ozone impacts on ecosystems, food security and
  human health will remain very important.
• Effects of air pollution on materials and health
  probably underestimated in urban areas with
  present models.
• Decrease in emissions of S and N, and thereby
  decrease in deposition, have led to reduced
  surface waters acidification and a start of
  biological recovery in many acid sensitive sites.
  Improvement will continue.

Eutrophication
Ozone
Multi-pollutant
Acidification
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EMEP-WGE-WGSR data flow
TF hemispheric transports
TF measurement modelling (MSCW, MSCE)
TF inventories
TF IAM
EGTEI
NEBEI
TF HM
WGSR
TF POP
TF RN
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EMEP-WGE-WGSR data flow
TF hemispheric transports
TF measurement modelling (MSCW, MSCE)
TF inventories
TF IAM
EGTEI
NEBEI
TF HM
WGSR
TF POP
TF RN
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On behalf all my colleagues within the Working
Group on Effects that have contributed to this
analysis and to the results in this presentation

• THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
• ???