Dr. C. Lee Giles

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IST 511 Information Management Information and
Technology What is Science and the Scientific
Method

• Dr. C. Lee Giles
• David Reese Professor, College of Information
  Sciences and Technology
• Professor of Computer Science and Engineering
• Professor of Supply Chain and Information Systems
• The Pennsylvania State University, University
  Park, PA, USA
• giles_at_ist.psu.edu
• http//clgiles.ist.psu.edu

Thanks to Tyler Nordgren
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What is Science?

• "Equipped with his five senses, man explores the
  universe around him and calls the adventure
  Science
• Science is a process for investigating and
  explaining the natural world
• Science creates theories and laws, all of which
  are testable
• Theories explain laws
• Laws predict

Edwin Hubble, 1889-1953
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What is science?

• Science is a tool.
• Medicine I have high cholesterol, what should I
  do?
• Actions
• Take cholesterol lowering medication.
• Change your behavior.
• Consult your astrologer.
• Pray to the god Baal and sacrifice a goat.

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The Scientific Method

• Observe an event(s).
• Develop a model (or hypothesis) which makes a
  prediction to explain the event
• Test the prediction with data
• Observe the result.
• Revise the hypothesis.
• Repeat as needed.
• A successful hypothesis becomes a Scientific
  Theory.

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Medical Science
Scientific Method High Cholesterol
Observation Patient has high cholesterol
Hypothesis (prediction) Certain chemicals may dissolve cholesterol deposits.
Test Give 100 patients these chemicals, give 100 patients placebo.
Observe result Same number lower their cholesterol as placebo patients.
Revise hypothesis? Try different combo of chemicals.
New test? Re-run medical test. Observe results.
Scientific Theory Lipitor reduces cholesterol.
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Everyday Science
Scientific Method Car Repair
Observation Engine wont turn over.
Hypothesis (prediction) Predict battery is dead.
Test Replace battery.
Observe result Engine now turns over.
Revise hypothesis? Not needed.
New test? Not needed.
Scientific Theory Cars wont work without a fully charged battery.
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Everyday Science
Scientific Method Making Spaghetti Sauce
Observation Spaghetti sauce should be red.
Hypothesis (prediction) Try a tomato sauce.
Test Heat pot of tomato sauce.
Observe result Taste the sauce - bland.
Revise hypothesis? Use tomato sauce and garlic!
New test? Add garlic, taste - not so bland.
Scientific Theory The Final Recipe.
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Food Science

• Throwing something together ? Hypothesis
• Your grandmothers time-tested recipe ?
  Scientific Theory.

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Repeatability

• A successful theory is repeatable.
• By you.
• By anyone.
• Examples
• Cold Fusion (1989)
• Ecstasy (Science, 2003)
• Science can be done well or poorly

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Requirements

• Objective reality
• We all see the same world.
• Constant Laws of Nature
• What happens here, happens there.
• What happened yesterday will happen tomorrow.
• The Cosmos is knowable.

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Does it work?

• Scientific Method is a tool.
• Does this tool work?
• Life expectancy
• Mortality rates
• Construction/mechanics
• etc
• Are there better tools?

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Recap Theories, Guesses, Laws

• What does the word Theory mean to you?
• A conjecture guess (Websters Dictionary)
• Does it mean the same to a scientist?
• A model which has been born out by repeated
  tests and observation.
• Is a Theory less than a Law?
• Evolution is just a theory, it is not a fact.
• Do Theories grow up to be Laws?
• Einsteins Theory of Relativity

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Theories

• A theory is a highly successful hypothesis.
• All hypotheses make predictions.
• All theories make predictions.
• All theories can be tested.
• Result Any scientific theory is subject to
  change as our ability to make tests, or make
  observations of a tests results, improves with
  time.

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Non-scientific Theories

• Make no predictions
• Un-testable
• Cant be falsified

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Non-scientific Theories

• Car wont work? ? Aliens drained the battery.
• Spaghetti is bland? ? You were meant to eat bland
  food.
• Car wont work? ? Gods must be angry.
• Spaghetti is bland? ? At the instant of tasting,
  tongue is transported to alternate dimension
  where all flavors are rendered nullified. Happens
  instantaneously.

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Non-scientific Theories

• The chain of events needed for life to arise is
  too complicated to have happened by chance, a
  divine intelligence must therefore have caused
  life to arise (Intelligent Design).
• Face on Mars.

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Falsification

• A real Scientific Theory tells you what
  observations are necessary to falsify it.
• Not so proponents of
• Face on Mars
• Moon Hoax
• Intelligent Design
• Astrologers

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Astrology Tests

• What test would falsify astrology?

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Astrology and a President
Former White House Chief of Staff, Donald
Regan and others make a compelling case that in
1986 and 1987 astrological influence dramatically
reduced the presidency's effectiveness, at least
partly, by keeping Ronald Reagan under wraps for
much of the time. Nancy's intrusions in the
scheduling process, Regan said in an interview
with TIME last week, began to interfere with the
normal conduct of the presidency. (TIME, May
16, 1988)

• (TIME, May 16, 1988) --
• The First Lady dabbled in astrology as far back
  as 1967. In 1981 Joan Quigley made Nancy a
  believer . And from then on, no presidential
  public appearance was slated without the Friend's
  say-so. To this day, Nancy's Friend continues to
  influence the President's schedule. For the
  Reagan-Gorbachev Washington summit, she cast the
  charts of both men and determined

• that 2 p.m. on Dec. 8, 1987, was the most
  propitious moment for them to sign the
  intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty. At
  Nancy's behest, the entire summit was built
  around that hour. For the upcoming Moscow summit,
  Gorbachev's chart (he is a Pisces) has been
  recast alongside Reagan's (Aquarius).

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Science as a Tool Kit

• Science is an intellectual tool kit that humans
  have developed for the purpose of explaining and
  controlling our environment
• It is an intensely practical endeavor
• Not a belief system predicated upon faith or
  adherence to anything other than a requirement
  for practical results
• Thereby achieving a measure of control
• The fruits of this endeavor are
• New knowledge
• New technology
• Technology and science often work hand in hand.
• Technology can produce new science
• Science can produce new technology
• Which is more important?

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What is Technology?

• Technology is the process by which humans modify
  nature to meet their needs and wants.

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Technology vs. Science

• Technology
• Study of our human-made world
• Deals with what can be

• Science
• Study of our natural world
• Deals with what is

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Science as a Tool Kit

• Like any tool kit, it has been amassed gradually
• The invention and development of Science has a
  history

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The History of Science

• Science is a relatively recent endeavor
• Certain technological advances were known to the
  ancients
• The axle/wheel unit 7000 BCE in Europe
• Paper in China 600 BCE
• Gunpowder (again in China) 900 CE
• The compass 80 CE
• But technology is not science

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The History of Science

• Such advances were sporadic and did not rely on a
  coherent system of investigation
• Accidental didnt hinge on a systematic
  approach to their development
• Thales of Miletus
• Perhaps the first scientist
• The first to express his ideas in logical and
  not mythological terms
• But the true development of science awaited the
  invention of one of its major components

624-546 BCE
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The Experiment

• A crucial component of the scientific process
• Cited by Peter Watson as one of the three great
  ideas in the history of humanity
• Robert Grosseteste
• Emphasized mathematics
• Observation experiment as the essential methods
  to test hypotheses
• Roger Bacon
• Predicted that science would someday give mastery
  over nature
• Forecast submarines, automobiles and airplanes

c. 1175 9 October 1253
c. 1214 1294
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The Emergence of Science
These principles transformed the study of
scientific data from a fairly random exercise to
an integrated mathematical inquiry into physical
phenomena based upon the tripartite cycle of
observation, hypothesis and experimental
verification
William Chester Jordan, Europe in the High
Middle Ages
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The Scientific Toolkit

• Observation
• Hypothesis
• Measurement
• Refined observation
• Experiment
• Conclusions
• Predictions
• Revision (or discarding) of conclusions
• Collective / Cumulative

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Integration of the Scientific Toolkit

• Experiment and hypothesis must produce tangible
  results
• Derived conclusions must be
• Tentative
• Testable
• Falsifiable
• Lead to predictions which in turn can be tested
  by observation, measurement and experiment
• Science is self-correcting

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Stuttering Progress

• The history of scientific thought is uneven and
  stuttering
• Many blind alleys are pursued and (eventually)
  discarded or modified
• Newton was only partially correct
• Einstein modified and extended Newtonian physics
• In the end, though, its progress has been
  remarkable and singularly successful in defining
  controlling external reality
• And giving evidence for the existence of external
  reality
• There are no pure social constructionists at
  30,000 feet

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The Rules of Science
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Negative Rules of Science(things which are not
done)

• Adhere to dogma
• i.e. conclusions are always tentative
• This does not mean that faith is bad
• It just means that it is not part of the
  scientific process
• Resort to the supernatural
• Note that science does not say there is no
  supernatural or that you cant turn to it
• Again, it just says that if you do so it ceases
  to be science

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Compromise

• Compromise and fairness are not part of Science
• 2 2 4 vs. 2 2 6
• does not mean that
• 2 2 5
• One does not teach both sides if one side has
  overwhelming evidence to support it

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Absolutes vs Relative

• Science has absolutes
• Gravity
• Try stepping off a bridge
• How often will you fall?
• Only if you take actions not to fall
• or
• Where there is no gravity
• Relativity and uncertainty in physics is not
  relative

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Intellectual Tension in the Pursuit of Science

• Scientists must balance many seemingly
  contradictory impulses
• Eternal skepticism vs. open mindedness
• Doubting ones own and others hypotheses /
• Demanding evidence
• Eschewing dogma
• Considering new (sometimes disturbing)
  explanations for the world
• The inadequacy of the concept of majority

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An Important Corollary
Common Sense is not Necessarily a Good Guide to
External Reality
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Intellectual Tension in the Pursuit of Science

• These inherent tensions are often misunderstood
  by non-scientists
• They see the very strength of science (its
  tentativeness) as a weakness
• Fiber prevents colon cancer
• .oops, no it doesnt
• Whether babies should be placed on their backs or
  their stomachs to prevent SIDS

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Evolution as a Case Study

• Evolutionary theory explains the diversity of
  life and its underlying cohesion
• Observation
• Homologous structures in different organisms
• Similarities in embryos
• Hypothesis
• Common Descent with natural selection as a
  driving force in speciation

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Evolution as a Case Study

• Prediction
• The mechanism underlying heredity must be
  compatible with random heritable change subject
  to selective pressures
• Modern genetics is nothing more than a grand
  fulfillment of predictions inherent in
  evolutionary theory as laid out by Darwin and
  others
• The age of the earth
• Discovery of intermediate fossil forms
• Archyopteryx
• Tiktaalik roseae

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Evolution as a Case Study

• Experiment
• Viral and bacterial changes due to selective
  pressures
• Antibiotics
• Decades of data on finch beaks on the Galapagos
• Dog and pigeon breeding
• Tentativeness and Revision
• Darwins original theory allowed a role for
  Lamarckian inheritance of acquired
  characteristics
• Now discredited

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Evolution and Medicine

• Evolution is central to all of biology and to
  medicine
• It answers many questions that begin with Why
• Why 80 of us suffer back pain
• Why modern diseases in developed countries kick
  in once we are past reproductive age
• Why diabetes is a modern epidemic

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Friction Between Science and Culture

• Arises because science has a tangible impact on
  questions that it can inform but not fully answer
• When does life begin?
• When does life end?
• Where did humanity come from?
• In so doing it inevitably encounters friction
  with belief systems that have sought to explain
  some of the same things

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Science vs. Religion

• Since the rise of modern science, tension has
  existed between it and religion
• Science does undermine certain religious claims
• The earth is more than 6000 years old
• It was not predominantly shaped by a great flood
• Humans did not appear de novo in their present
  form within the last few thousand years

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Science and Religion

• The explanatory success of science cannot tell us
  how to act in the realm of morality and ethics
• Though science does illuminate much about the
  existence of ethics via evolutionary psychology
  and neurobiology
• A reliance on science is not inherently
  inconsistent with the existence of a god
• Empirically demonstrated by the fact that there
  are many scientists who believe in a god

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Why Does it Matter?

• The power of science is formidable
• Many want the impressive imprimatur of science
  without actually following its rules
• Ideology
• Those who seek to teach religion in the guise of
  science do both a disservice
• Profit
• Medical quackery

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Why Does it Matter?

• Lysenko set the Soviet Union back by decades (and
  millions starved) because of junk science
• Mao dismissed Einsteinian physics as at odds with
  Marxist philosophy of an infinite universe with
  endless class struggle
• We ignore scientific evidence of global warming
  and environmental degradation at our own peril

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Why Does it Matter?
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Why Does it Matter?

• Science has brought great misery in addition to
  benefits
• War has been a driving force in the development
  of science and technology
• Unintended consequences of material benefits
• We need to understand the tangible impact of
  science for good and for ill

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Intangible Impact of Science

• Sheer pleasure in understanding our world
• A component of awe and wonder
• Bringing an added dimension of beauty to our
  appreciation of the world

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An Added Dimension of Beauty
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The Limits of Science

• Are there physical limits to our knowledge?
• Animal brains are limited are ours?
• Are our brains are up to the job of omniscience?
• Will we complement our brains?
• Moral issues
• Computational morality/ethics
• Policy
• Information science seems to be important in all
  arenas the only need is the use of information.

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Values in Science

• Integrity
• Honesty
• Constant questioning, experiments
• Data (without data, there is no science)
• To be a science, there must be data
• Data rules!

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eScience What is it?

• Synthesis of information technology and science.
• Science methods are evolving (tools).
• Science is being codified/objectified.How
  represent scientific information and knowledge in
  computers?
• Science faces a data deluge.How to manage and
  analyze information?
• Scientific communication changing
• publishing data literature (curation,
  access, preservation)

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Science Paradigms

• Thousand years ago science was empirical
• describing natural phenomena
• Last few hundred years theoretical branch
• using models, generalizations
• Last few decades a computational branch
• simulating complex phenomena
• Today data science (eScience)
• unify theory, experiment, and simulation
• Data captured by instrumentsor generated by
  simulator
• Processed by software
• Information/Knowledge stored in computer
• Scientist analyzes database / filesusing data
  management and statistics

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Can Information Science help eScience?

• Data management
• Data access
• Data structure
• Data search
• Data storage
• Data gathering
• Cyberinfrastructure
• Ex at IST
• http//chemxseer.ist.psu.edu

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Discussion Questions

• Are these sciences?
• Economics
• Political science
• Information science
• Sociology
• Astronomy
• What is the role of information in science or
  escience?