Title: Use of EMEP results
1Use of EMEP results in ICP MM assessments for
the support of the GP-revision
J-P Hettelingh, M Posch, J Slootweg ICP MM -
Coordination Centre for Effects
(CCE), www.icpmapping.org hosted at RIVM
2Collaboration between EMEP and WGE-CCE includes
- - emissions/depositions/concentrations from
EMEP (CIAM MSC-W) for assessments of acid and
nutrient exceedances in support of the revison of
the gothenburg protocol and NEC (TSAP) - emissions/depositions from EMEP (MSC-E) for
assessments of Heavy metal exceedances in support
of effect based information to the revision of
the HM protocol - Historic emission/deposition assessments for the
dynamic modelling of changes to soil chemistry
and vegetation diversity - Scenario specific information on various air
pollution compounds for WGE expost assessments - Information on exceedances, land cover and soil
chemistry for use by EMEP - Report and paper contributions
3Structure of ICP MM Impact assessment
EMEP
4Illustrative analysis ofEffects of acidity and
nutrient-N using most recent CIAM scenarios
5Using modelled critical loads for acidity and
nutrient-N
6Exceedances (AAE) of Acidity Critical Loads and
area at risk in Europe, (EU27) and Natura2000
COB, 3, (5), 6
LOW, 2, (4), 5
2000, 10,(19), 21
MID, 2, (4), 4
HIGH, 2 (3), 3
MFR, 1 (3), 3
7Exceedances (AAE) of Nutrient Critical Loads and
area at risk in Europe, (EU27) and Natura2000
COB, 34 (55), 55
LOW, 28, (46), 46
2000, 52, (74), 71
MFR, 22, (38), 37
MID, 26, (43), 44
HIGH, 23, (39), 39
8DYNAMIC MODELLING of Eutrophication Violation of
Nutrient 2050 Target Loads (compared with
CLs) and area not recovering before 2050 in
Europe and (EU27)
Target Loads CLs
COB 35 (57)
34 (55)
MID 27 (46)
26 (43)
9Using empirical critical loads
10Exceedances (AAE) of Empirical Critical Loads
and area at risk in Europe, (EU27) and
Natura2000
COB, 10,(18), 24
LOW, 6, (11), 14
2000, 23, (40), 48
MFR, 3 (6), 8
MID, 5, (9), 12
HIGH, 3, (7), 9
11Area at N-risk of a more than 5 change in
biodiversity, i.e. of species richness
semi-natural grass lands s-alpine scrub
habitats, and similarity coniferous boreal
woodlands, together covering 53 of European
natural area
9 of the area
2 of the area
1,2 of the area
1 of the area
0,7 of the area
0,6 of the area
12Assessment of the robustness of scenario impacts
13Likeliness of Exceedances (AAE) in Europe based
on the ensemble of empirical and modelled CL(N)
Explore the inclusion of alternative deposition
assessments ?
14In addition, some areas are also at risk
ofambient NH3 that exceed critical levels
NAT-2000
PRI-2000
MFR-2020
PRI-2030
Critical levels from Cape et al. 2008
15Some concluding observations
- Collaboration between EMEP and WGE-CCE
- Works very well, including
- science (FP7 publications reports) for ground
truthing of - applications for the support of European air
quality policies - Will review requirements to further implement the
EB strategy calling for the broadening of the
modelled system (change of climate and
biodiversity uncertainty)