FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR GLOBAL AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT

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FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR GLOBAL AIR QUALITY
MANAGEMENT

• Dr Martin Williams
• Defra, UK
• NERAM Colloquium V
• Strategic Policy Directions for Air Quality Risk
  Management, Vancouver, 16-18 October 2006

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Future Directions for Global Air Quality
Management

• Outline
• Urban AQM-how do we best use standards?
  world-wide? are there better ways?
• Regional/transboundary/hemispheric air pollution
  problems New issues and outreach
• Integration of policy areas air pollution and
  climate change

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Urban AQM and the role of standards

• WHO Global update of Air Quality Guidelines
• A significant development with opportunities and
  challenges for developing and developed countries

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WHO Interim Targets and AQ Guidelines for PM
Annual Mean Level PM10 PM2.5
WHO IT-1 70 35
WHO-IT-2 50 25
WHO IT-3 30 15
WHO AQG 20 10
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• The fact that the guidelines exist will be
  beneficial to developing countries and should
  promote action
• The series of interim targets for PM in
  particular should be helpful
• But will there be counter-arguments from industry
  to challenge what they might argue are arbitrary
  numbers ?
• If so, how will the risk management process
  proceed without definitive exposure-response
  coefficients which would enable CBA and other
  evaluations?

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• For developed countries, the same arguments
  apply, but also
• The AQGs themselves will be very difficult to
  achieve experience has shown this already in
  Europe for PM10 and NO2 and is likely to be the
  case for the AQG for PM2.5
• The CAFÉ process in Europe has to date not used a
  priori standards to manage PM but has used the
  chain
• Scenario-gtemissions-gtexposures-gthealth
  effects-gtmonetised costs and benefits-gtair
  quality target/control measures

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• As levels approach the AQG certainly for PM,
  probably for the other pollutants successive
  reductions will be difficult to justify. How will
  these difficulties be overcome?
• Persuasive evidence - role for authoritative
  evaluations and interpretations of the literature
  for policy purposes
• Do standards still have a role? Or does the
  exposure reduction approach have advantages ?
• It requires a reduction in the mean over all
  measurement sites in the area

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Hemispheric transport Our current understanding

• Well documented evidence mostly in very clean
  environments as the Arctic and remote places and
  for air pollution episodes.
• Concerns tropospheric ozone, fine particulate
  matter, persistent organic pollutants, mercury
• The size of intercontintental transport and its
  influence is poorly quantified. For some
  pollutants (Hg) in the range of 10 to 75 percent
  and thus significant.
• Also for ozone the hemispheric burden is
  significant. For PM the intercontinental
  transport less certain possibly up to 2 ug/m3
• The effectiveness of intercontinental transport
  depends on local and regional conditions. Often
  associated with meteorology such as deep
  convention and frontal systems (WCB).

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North American pollution plume observed during
CONTRACEStohl et al., JGR, 108, 4370,
2003Huntrieser et al., JGR, 110, DO1305, doi
10.1029/2004JD005045
Ozone from MOZAIC ascent
SeaWifs image on 15 November
Ozone at Horton station
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Introduction to TF HTAP
CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGETRANSBOUNDARY AIR
POLLUTION
50 Parties in Europe, North America and Central
Asia
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• The Task Force is charged to plan and conduct
  the technical work necessary to
• develop a fuller understanding of the hemispheric
  transport of air pollution ...
• estimate the hemispheric transport of specific
  air pollutants for the use in reviews of
  protocols to the Convention
• prepare technical reviews thereon for submission
  to the Steering Body of EMEP

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Policy-Relevant Science Questions
Introduction to TF Hemispheric Transport of Air
Pollution

• 1. How does hemispheric transport affect air
  pollution?
• 2. How much do emissions in one country or region
  affect air pollution in another country or
  region?
• 3. How confident are we of the results and what
  is our best estimate of the uncertainties?
• How will changes in emissions in one country or
  region affect air pollution in another country or
  region?
• 5. How may the source-receptor relationships
  change over the next 20 to 50 years due to
  changes in emissions?
• 6. How may the source-receptor relationships
  change due to climate change?
• 7. What efforts are needed to develop an
  integrated system of observation data and models?

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TF HTAP Assessment Products
Expectations for Assessment Products

• 2009 Assessment Report
• State of knowledge concerning intercontinental
  transport of air pollutants in the Northern
  Hemisphere
• Covering all pollutants of interest under the
  LRTAP Convention
• Addressing identified policy-relevant science
  questions
• 2007 Interim Report
• Significance of intercontinental transport of air
  pollutants within the Northern Hemisphere for
  attaining the objectives of the 1999 Gothenburg
  Protocol

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Links between climate, air pollution and energy
policies

• There are physical and economic interactions
  between the control of air pollution emissions
  and GHG mitigation
• If these problems are considered separately
• From the an air pollution perspective
• Baseline AP emissions, impacts and control costs
  (for fixed AP legislation) depend on the level of
  GHG mitigation
• Costs of strengthened AQ policies depend on the
  level of GHG mitigation
• Further AP control strategies have co-benefits on
  GHG mitigation costs.
• From a climate perspective
• GHG mitigation costs depend on the level of AP
  control
• GHG mitigation costs have co-benefits on AQ
  impacts

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Links between climate, air pollution and energy
policies

• Cost savings from an integrated approach -
  Provisional GAINS estimates, EU-25, 2020

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Cost savings from an integrated
approachProvisional GAINS estimates, EU-25, 2020
Integrated approach Joint optimization of GHG
and air pollution control
Baseline
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Links between climate, air pollution and energy
policies

• There are short term trade-offsDiesels (Black
  Carbon vs CO2), CHP and Micro-CHP, SO2 FGD
• There are longer term win-wins Low carbon
  intensity energy generation low carbon intensity
  transport, energy efficiency

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Links between climate, air pollution and energy
policies

• An integrated approach could reduce total costs
  for GHG mitigation and air pollution control.
• Cost savings can be immediate, they are real
  money and they occur to the actors who have to
  invest into mitigation.
• GAINS Global IAM model built at IIASA - offers a
  tool for such an integrated analysis to identify
  concrete measures that are beneficial.

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Summary - Future directions for Global Air
Quality Management

• Air Quality standards for protection of human
  health?
• Global air quality standards with stepwise
  improvements WHO 2005-opportunities but also
  threats
• Exposure reductions ensure benefits for the
  population-if they can be built into legislation
• How to make progress when we are reaching a point
  of diminishing returns? Standards alone may not
  be enough
• Air pollution not only a local issue -
  transboundary character of air pollution ozone,
  PM require regional and global measures
• Integration of policy areas air pollution and
  climate change cost effective joint policies
  need to manage the short term trade offs and gain
  the longer term synergies

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• Thank you
• Merci bien
• Diolch yn fawr