Global Value Chains and Upgrading:

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Global Value Chains and Upgrading China and
Mexico Compared
Gary Gereffi Duke University ggere_at_soc.duke.edu
Globalización, Conocimiento y Desarrollo desde
la perspectiva mexicana Universidad Nacional
Autónoma de México (UNAM), México, DF,
México 15-17 de marzo, 2006
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5 Themes

• Global value chains industrial upgrading
• Industrial diversification in Mexico China
• Comparing industrial upgrading trajectories in
  Mexico and China
• Why is Mexico losing U.S. market share to China?
• Can Mexico be competitive with China?

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Global Value Chains

• Industrialization takes place in a global context
  (national industries outmoded)
• GVCs focus on the organization of entire
  industries raw materials-production-retail
• GVCs can be fragmented or consolidated
• Who drives the chain? (power of lead firms
  producer-driven vs. buyer-driven)
• Upgrading by countries within GVCs is possible,
  but not guaranteed

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Forms of industrial upgrading

• Product upgrading (new, better products)
• Process upgrading (more efficient, cheaper)
• Functional upgrading (new roles in GVCs)
• assembly
• full package (OEM)
• original design manufacturing (ODM)
• original brand manufacturing (OBM)
• Inter-sectoral upgrading (new industries)
• Primary products to manufacturing to services
• Labor-intensive to capital- knowledge-intensive

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• Comparing Industrial Upgrading
• Trajectories Mexico vs. China

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Mexicos Industrialization since 1985

• Export oriented (mainly to U.S. market)
• Highly diversified
• Shifting emphasis from primary product exports
  intermediate goods to manufactures
• Within manufacturing, medium-tech and high-tech
  exports are displacing low-tech exports

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Table 1 Mexicos Top 10 Exports to the U.S.
Market, 1985-2004
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Graph 1 Composition of Mexicos Exports to the
U.S. Market, 1985-2003
Source World Trade Analyzer.
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Chinas Industrialization since 1995

• Sustained diversified export dynamism
• Decline of low-tech manufactured exports
• Increase in medium-tech and high technology
  manufactured exports
• Chinas science education policy emphasizes
  high-tech parks ICTs
• Business services weak outside of big firms

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Graph 2 Composition of Chinas Exports to the
U.S. Market, 1985-2003
Source World Trade Analyzer.
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Mexico vs. China

• Head-to-head competition in U.S. market
• China is worlds leading exporter of many
  manufactures, esp. consumer goods
• China and Mexico are typically among the top
  three exporters to the U.S. market in many
  product categories
• China is moving ahead of Mexico with dominant
  market shares in the United States, especially in
  2000-2005 period

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Table 2. Top 50 US Imports in which Mexico and/or
China hold 20 or more of the US market, 2004
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Table 3. Mexico's and China's Competing Exports
to the United States, 2000-2005
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Why is China gaining U.S. market share over
Mexico?

• China is a lower-cost producer overall (labor
  costs lower, but not transport tariffs)
• China has huge scale economies
• China has a coherent and multidimensional
  upgrading strategy diversify and add high value
  activities
• China is using direct foreign investment to
  promote fast learning in new industries
• China uses access to its domestic market to
  attract TNCs and promote knowledge spillovers

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Chinas Supply Chain Cities in Apparel
Source David Barboza, In roaring China,
sweaters are west of socks city, New York Times,
Dec. 24, 2004.
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How can Mexico compete with China?

• Take advantage of proximity to U.S. market (e.g.,
  quicker time to market large heavy goods
  made-to-order customized products)
• Eliminate comparative disadvantages (bureaucracy
  low productivity poor utilities transport
  infrastructure education)
• Move into high-value activities within GVCs
  (e.g., RD, design, engineering, business
  services)
• Use domestic market as an asset

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Conclusions

• There is a globalization paradox
• The dramatic expansion of production capabilities
  reflected in global outsourcing creates
  heightened anxieties in both developed and
  developing countries regarding sustainable
  development
• The global economy is concentrated at the top and
  fragmented at the bottom
• Thus, the real opportunities to move up in value
  chains are concentrated in a small number of
  developing economies

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• Development strategies need to be more balanced
  and decentralized
• Free trade is not a development strategy
• Industrial policies are being implemented at
  subnational level
• Regional markets supplement national ones, and
  can reduce the pressures from global competition
• Labor and environmental standards matter
• As much of the worlds apparel production becomes
  concentrated in China, pressures to follow
  ethical sourcing procedures will intensify
• China will need to upgrade its labor standards
  and working conditions, or it will be embroiled
  in continuous battles with NGOs and social
  activists

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• Thank you
• for your attention!