Employment in China After It Reached Lewis Turning Point

1
Employment in China After It Reached Lewis
Turning Point

• CAI Fang
• Institute of Population and Labor Economics
• Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

2
Neoclassical Contracts to Lewisian
3
This Presentation Intends to

• How demographic transition reshaped LM and
  employment in China
• Employment problems mixed by factors of both
  neoclassical and dual economy characteristics
• 3 groups with special vulnerability exposed to
  cyclical natural unempt with focus on migrant
  workers

4
Demographic Transition and Labor Market Outcomes
5
China Demographic Transition
6
Demography-resulted Labor Shortage
7
Labor Force Is Aging
8
Labor Demand Continues Increasing
9
Scenarios of Labor Demand
10
Wages Increases in All Sectors
11
Challenges Are Brand Newfor Chinese Governments
12
From Dual to Neoclassical Scenario
13
Workers Expectation Increasing, too
14
Govt Identified 3 Vulnerable Groups
15
Incomplete Urbanization
16
Agricultural Labor Is Aging
17
Migrants Insecure Employment
18
Low Coverage of Social Security
19
Policy Agenda for New Era

• Integrating labor market (hukou reform)
• Labor market institutions (collective bargaining)
• Broader social protection mechanism
• Employment-centered macroeconomic policy

20
Thank you for attention