Ups and Downs

1
Ups and Downs

• To what extent is this the worst economic
  downturn in over 30 years?
• Nick Langston-Able
• ESRC Festival of Social Science
• The Future of Economics
• Bristol University November 2011
• www.economicsrevealed.co.uk
• www.economicsrevealed.blogspot.com

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The 1980s a reminder
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Economic Growth
4
Inflation
5
Interest Rates
6
Unemployment
7
Government Spending
8
BoP Current Account
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Your very own recession

• Is the current recession the worst in the last 30
  years and is it the worst you will experience?

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Economic Growth (worse)
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Inflation (better)
12
Interest Rates (better!)
13
Unemployment (better)
14
BoP Current Account (worse than 1980-82 but
better than 1990-92)
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Govt Borrowing (worse)
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Government Spending Comparisons
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Conclusion

• The evidence suggests that the current economic
  downturn is not as bad as previous downturns.
  Inflation is much less of a problem, interest
  rates are low and whilst unemployment is high, it
  has still not reached levels seen in the 1980s
  and early 1990s. Put simply weve had it worse.

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Conclusion 2

• The evidence suggests that this is indeed the
  worst economic downturn in over 30 years. Whilst
  there has been less of a problem with inflation
  and high interest rates, unemployment is almost
  as high and may well still rise. The government
  is also running a large budget deficit in
  addition to the UK experiencing a reasonably
  large current account deficit. Put simply
  were doomed.

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Conclusion 3

• The extent to which this is the worst economic
  downturn in over 30 years is up for debate. There
  are a number of indicators which suggest this may
  be the case but equally there are other
  indicators which suggest that the UK experienced
  worse problems in the 1980s and 1990s. It is
  also difficult to judge the nature of the current
  downturn in terms of whether the UK is past the
  worst and how long a recovery might take. Put
  simply dunno really.

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Thank You

• Nick Langston-Able
• www.economicsrevealed.co.uk
• www.economicsrevealed.blogspot.com