Simulated Stratospheric Temperature Trends

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Simulated Stratospheric Temperature Trends
SPARC Temperature Trends Meeting April 13, 2007
Washington DC.
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• Coupled Chemistry Climate Model Simulations of
  Stratospheric Temperature

J. Austin, P. Forster, J. Wilson, S. Bekki, N.
Butchard, M. Chipperfield, C. Claud, R.Garcia, N.
Gellett, M. Giorgetta, P. Keckhut, D. Kinnison,
U. Langematz, E. Manzini, C. Mears, A. Miller, T.
Nagasima, J. Nash, S. Pwosn, W.J. Randel., E.
Rozanov, T.G.Shepherd, K. Shibata, K.P. Shine, D.
Seidel, H. Struthers, D. Thompson, and S.
Yoden Manuscript in preparation
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Participating Models CCMval model
intercomparison
AMTRAC 3 x 1960-2004 CCSRNIES
1980-2004 CMAM 1960-2004 GEOSCCM
1960-2003 LMDZepro 1979-1999 MAECHAM-4CHEM
1980-1999 MRI 1980-2004 SOCOL
1980-2004 UMETRAC 1980-1999 UMSLIMCAT
1980-1999 WACCM 3 x 1950-2003
Eyring et al. 2006 Assessment of temperature,
trace species and ozone in chemistry-climate
model simulations of the recent past, J. Geophys.
Res. 111, D22308, doi10.0129/2006JD007327.
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Averaged Monthly fields A(t)
A(t) ao a1t a2s a3F10.7 e(t)
s is aerosol surface area (tropics at 60hPa)
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Fig. 1 Annually Globally Averaged Temperature
--- UKMO Data Assimilation
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--- UKMO Data Assimilation
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Annually-averaged trends 1960-1979 K/decade
0.25 K contour interval Shading 95 confidence
level
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Annually-averaged trends 1980-1999
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Global, Annual Averaged Temperature Anomaly
(referenced to 1980)
Fig. 5
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Vertically-Weighted Global Average Temperature
Fig. 6
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- MSU/SSU (1980-1997)
Fig. 7
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Solar Cycle 0.5 K/100 units 10.7 cm flux ?0.7
K for Dsolar
Aerosols
Surface area density Typical eruption 1.5e-7
cm2/cm3 ? 1 K
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Time Series of Arctic Temperatures 60-90N
(Feb-April)
11 year running avg.
Figure 9
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Arctic Temperature Trends
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Time Series of Antarctic Temperatures 60-90S
(Sept-Nov)
11 year running avg.
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Antarctic Temperature Trends