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Perspectives from WFO AMA

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Perspectives from WFO AMA Matthew R. Kramar WFO AMA Science Issues Time from research to publication to ingest into operations Lack of understanding of fundamental ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Perspectives from WFO AMA


1
Perspectives from WFO AMA
  • Matthew R. Kramar
  • WFO AMA

2
Science Issues
  • Time from research to publication to ingest into
    operations
  • Lack of understanding of fundamental processes,
    particularly for formation of tornadoes
  • When will a rotating storm produce a tornado and
    when wont it?
  • Cyclic, long-track production versus a lone 30
    sec. long process
  • Even with current knowledge, disparity of
    knowledge among forecasters results in poor
    warning decision practices and performance
  • Motivation to improve or revisit warning decision
    process
  • Is the best person for the job always where they
    need to be?
  • WFO/Forecaster involvement/collaboration in field
    research projects

3
Technological Issues
  • Radar limitations
  • Volume scan takes too long
  • How can we effect faster updates with current
    technology when radar is already pushed to its
    limits?
  • Poor spatial distribution of radars
  • Detection of damaging winds
  • Difficult in cross-radial motions
  • AWIPS limitations
  • Slow process for cross-sections
  • Prolific data sources, no central dispatch
  • SpotterNetwork
  • GRLevelX
  • Mesonet
  • Television data (observations, radar, etc.)
  • Web-submitted spotter reports

4
Technological Issues
  • AWIPS Limitationscontinued
  • Often poor algorithmic performance
  • Dual-Pol will help with hail, but when will it be
    available?
  • Sparse surface observing network
  • Spotters not uniformly distributed
  • ASOS/AWOS not consistently dense network
  • Mesonets are good, but such density is needed on
    a larger scale
  • Software/Procedural Bugs
  • Software and procedures made field-operational
    (to abide by strict deadlines) before full
    testing and conceptual kinks can be worked out

5
Service Issues
  • 000
  • WUUS54 KXXX 050134
  • SVRXXX XXC047-050145-
  • /O.NEW.KXXX.SV.W.0295.070705T0133Z-070705T0145Z/
  • BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
  • NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE XXXXXXXXXXX XX
  • 833 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007
  • THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN XXXXXXXXX HAS
    ISSUED A
  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  • XXXXXX COUNTY IN NORTHERN XXXXXXXXXX...
  • UNTIL 845 PM CDT
  • AT 833 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  • A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF
    XXXX...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
  • Warning construction
  • Get away from geographic consideration
    (storm-based should help this issue)
  • Tendency of some forecasters to overwarn on
    marginal storms, or on every storm that rotates
  • WarnGen problems
  • Slow process
  • Editing the warnings in the Text Editor
    consistently causes format and spacing issues
  • Adjusting the polygon for SVS changes the county
    descriptor
  • Much editing required to templates to make them
    usable (e.g. dime size hail was still included in
    the template but penny size hail was not)
  • Warning dissemination
  • NWR is antiquated and problem-riddled
  • Cell phone/GPS dissemination
  • Iemchat server is unreliable

6
Service Issues
  • Warning awareness
  • Data overload
  • Spotter reporting
  • Verification efforts

7
Recommendations/Solutions
  • Science
  • Find new ways to motivate forecasters to
    self-assess and improve
  • Sometimes old-school is better (e.g. hand
    analysis)
  • Involve field more in academic research field
    projects
  • Continue research into tornadogenesis
  • Find improvements to speed refereed publication
    process

8
Recommendations/Solutions
  • Technology
  • Phased Array (RHI?) or Dual-Pol
  • More radar data available to field offices
  • CASA? DOWs? Local television?
  • Local archiving of data for easier/quicker access
    for post-event analysis
  • Larger-scale mesonets
  • Improve spotter network
  • Outreach
  • SHAVE-type contact
  • AWIPS-related technology
  • Centralize storm report ingest
  • Improve speed of storm interrogation (baseline
    fsi so that the ease of GRLevelX can be available
    in AWIPS)
  • Improve algorithms, and ensure full testing of
    software with field input before deployment
  • Easier method to maintain spotter guide for use
    in D2D, AWIPS controlled phone?
  • Easier way to revisit events than having to
    reload it on the WES (ArchiveD2D?)

9
Recommendations/Solutions
  • Service
  • Better warning decisions, rather than reactive
    knee-jerking
  • Storm-based warnings (but make sure all kinks are
    worked out first)
  • Proactive report solicitation
  • Fix WarnGen and text editor issues
  • Develop new technologies for dissemination of
    warnings in a rapidly evolving technological
    environment
  • More reliable way to incorporate Instant
    Messenger chat into warning operations
  • Locally-developed software used at WFO AMA to
    help in warning operations awareness
  • LSRPlot
  • ECLAIRS (a WHIRL derivative)
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