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Getting A Grip on Europe

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20th EFFAS Congress Getting A Grip on Europe s Pension Problems Pat McArdle Ulster Bank Brussels 29 September 1998 Will you still need me, will you still feed me ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Getting A Grip on Europe


1
Getting A Grip on Europes Pension Problems
20th EFFAS Congress
  • Pat McArdle
  • Ulster Bank

Brussels 29 September 1998
2
Will you still need me, will you still feed me,
When Im sixty four
  • The Beatles

3
Existing Pension Schemes are Generous
  • 90 PAYG
  • Indexed to prices/wages
  • Spending ? 15 GDP
  • 75 of previous income
  • 75 of 60-64 age group retired

4
Europe is Uncompetitive Already
5
Post-War Baby Boomers
6
Elderly Dependency Ratio
2030
1990
7
Pension Costs
8
NPVs of Public Pension Liabilities
9
Budget Deficits
10
Debt Ratios
11
Wage Cost Implications
12
Changing Social Security is like political
suicide
  • US Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan

13
NPVs post-Reforms
14
Pension Fund Assets
15
Asset Allocation
16
Excess Equity Returns
17
EFRP Proposal
Assumptions
  • By 2030 private pensions cover 60 of workforce
    and provide 25 of total pension payments

Results
1997 2020 GDP 33 71 ECU bln 1 10
18
Key Requirements
  • Later retirement
  • Curtailed benefits
  • Funded private pensions
  • Full pensions portability
  • Abolition of all restrictive rules
  • Single tax on benefits only
  • Action NOW!

19
If I knew that I was going to live this long I
would have looked after myself better
  • George Burns (aged 99½)
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