What

1
Whats New in the LMI WorldNevadas Perspective
Department of Employment, Training
Rehabilitation Frank R. Woodbeck, Director Bill
Anderson, Chief Economist Prepared by the
Research and Analysis Bureau for the Second
Annual EMSI ConferenceSeptember 2012
2
Nevadas Recession Scorecard Unemployment Rate

• Despite the fact that it has come down from
  all-time highs, Nevadas jobless rate is 6.8
  percentage points higher than at the official
  start of the recession in December 2007.
• The U.S. unemployment rate stands 3.3 points
  higher than at the start of the recession.

3
Unemployment Rate Rankings (SA)

• In July, Nevada maintained the highest
  unemployment rate in the nation.
• Rhode Island was second-highest, at 10.8.
• North Dakotas three percent jobless rate was the
  lowest.

4
Nevadas Recession Scorecard Non-Farm Jobs (SA)

• Nevadas job losses since the official start of
  the recession in December 2007 total 158K
  (-12.2).
• Over the same period, U.S. jobs are down 3.4.
• 400K jobs were created in Nevada between 1997 and
  2007.

5
Number of States with Higher Rates of Job Growth
than Nevada (year-over-year 2012 data are for
June)

• As of June, just 19 states had a higher job
  growth rate than NV.
• Over the 2003-2005 period, NV had the highest
  growth in the nation.
• At the height of the recession, every other state
  had a higher rate of job growth than NV.

6
In Nevada, We Need Information Intelligence,
Not Just Data
7
Las Vegas Strip Casino Revenue Gaming vs.
Nongaming (share of total revenue by fiscal year)

• The traditional gaming industry in Nevada has
  diversified.
• In FY 2011, 62 of Las Vegas Strip casino revenue
  was from nongaming sources (rooms, food/beverage,
  etc.), and that share has been consistently on
  the rise.
• Gaming revenue accounts for just 38 of the
  total, down significantly from a 59 share in FY
  1989.

8
Current Population Survey Results
9
Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization
(four quarters ending 2012IIQ)

• U-3 similar in scope to the official rate.
• U-4 includes discouraged workers.
• U-6 includes all persons available for work whom
  are only marginally attached to the labor force
  plus involuntary part-time workers.

10
NV Labor Force Participation Rate (labor force /
population 12-month moving average)

• Nevadas labor force participation rate has been
  trending down in recent years, although there has
  been considerable volatility.
• In late-2008, the LFPR peaked at nearly 70. In
  the 12 months ending in May, 65.1 of the
  population was in the labor force (either
  employed or unemployed).

11
Discouraged Workers in Nevada (12-month moving
average)

• The number of discouraged workers skyrocketed
  during the recessionan eight-fold increase.
• While the increase appears to be easing, there
  are still 16K discouraged workers in the State.

12
Unemployment Duration in Nevada (12-month average)

• Roughly half of unemployed Nevadans half been
  without work for more than 26 weeks.
• This has the potential for long-term
  implications.

13
Information From Unemployment Insurance Programs
14
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

• Initial claims totaled 18,700 in July, barely up
  from a year ago.
• This represents the first increase in more than
  2.5 years.
• Claims activity during the first week in August
  was down 12.8 from a year ago, suggesting that
  Julys results are likely not the start of a
  trend.
• Claims activity during the recession peaked in
  excess of 36,000.

15
Total Unemployment Insurance Claims vs. the Total
Number of Unemployed

• There were approximately 65,600 Nevadans
  submitting UI claims in July.
• 34,700 were regular UI claims 30,900 fell under
  a variety of extension programs.
• Of the 172,000 Nevadans estimated to be
  unemployed in July, 38, were receiving benefits.
  In the first half of 2008, 46 of those counted
  as unemployed received benefits. At its peak,
  the coverage ratio exceeded 70.

16
Unemployment Insurance Benefit Coverage Ratio
(share of unemployed receiving benefits)

• After peaking at over 70 in early 2009, the UI
  coverage ratio (45.5) is nearly back to its
  average 2007 level (41.3).
• Extended UI benefits provide more than half of
  this coverage, as regular benefits cover just
  21.6 of unemployed Nevadans.
• The fall in regular benefit coverage is explained
  in part by the presence of extended benefits and
  in part by long-term unemployment, which has
  reduced the number of people eligible for new UI
  claims.

17
Business Employment Dynamics Insights
18
Nevada Labor Market Dynamics Gross Job Gains
and Losses (SA)

• Typically, our monthly analyses focus on net job
  growth or loss. Beneath the surface, there is
  considerable activity taking place.
• During the recession, gross job gains at
  expanding or opening private sector
  establishments tumbled noticeably, while gross
  job losses at closing or contracting
  establishments spiked.
• As the States labor market improved, albeit
  haltingly, gross gains have stabilized, while
  gross losses are easing down.
• In last years fourth quarter (the most recent
  data available), gross job gains were about
  57,500 and losses were about 55,200.

19
Local Employment Dynamics Information
20
Employment 14-18 Year Olds

• Employment trends suggest Nevada teens were hit
  very hard by the recession.
• Employment levels (based upon official wage
  records) have essentially been cut in halffrom a
  pre-recession peak of more than 46K to just above
  20K.

21
Employment by Industry 14-18 Year Olds(four
quarters ending 2011IIQ)

• Just five industries account of more than
  three-fourths of teen employment in Nevada.
• Two industriesaccommodation/food services and
  retail tradeaccount for nearly two-thirds of
  teen employment.

22
Nevada Average Monthly Earnings All Workers vs.
New Hires

• In examining wages and earnings, the focus is
  often on some measure of average earnings.
• It is important to note that wages for new hires
  tend to be below the average.
• Specifically, new hire earnings (measured on a
  monthly basis) tend to be about two-thirds of the
  overall average.

23
Last, But Not Least, We have the Labor Market
Intelligence Provided via EMSI

• To date, EMSI resources have been used to support
  and inform the States new focus on economic
  development.

24
2008 - 2018 Job Growth by Training Level

• Over the next several years, jobs with
  higher-level training requirements are expected
  to grow the fastest.
• Jobs requiring a two-year associates degree are
  projected to show the most growth in percentage
  terms.
• The largest number of available job openings will
  continue to be found in occupations requiring
  on-the-job training (about 4,800 per year).

25
Nevadas Changing Economic Structure via
Location Quotients

• A measure of relative importance. NV job
  share/national job share. LQgt1 implies greater
  concentration in NV. LQlt1 implies less
  concentration in NV.
• Notable trends
• accommodation/food services three times more
  important in NV than in U.S. (but declining)
• construction has been hit hard LQ much closer to
  one
• health care is growing, but job share is still
  only about two-thirds of the national average
• public sector employment in NV only about 80 of
  U.S. average

26
Top-Ten High Growth, High Concentration, High
Wage Industries (2006-2011)

• Despite the impacts of the recession, there have
  been some Nevada success stories.
• While overall job levels trended down, several
  showed growth over the past half-decade.
• In total, the top-ten high job growth, high
  concentration (a greater share of NV employment
  is in these industries than in the nation), high
  wage industries added more than 10,500 jobs
  between 2006 and 2011.

27
Ten Nevada Industries with the Largest 2010-2011
"Competitive Job Shares"

• Shift-Share analyses identify that share of
  industry job growth in a region that is likely
  due to national trends (expected change),
  including trends specific to that industry, and
  region-specific trends (competitive share).
• Temporary help services had the largest
  competitive share in Nevada last year. In all,
  this industry added 1,800 jobs last year1,200
  were expected given broader trends at the
  national level and 600 (the competitive share)
  were due to trends specific to Nevada.
• All told, the ten industries in Nevada with the
  largest competitive shares grew 7.2, nearly
  three times faster than their national growth
  rate2.5.
• Several of the industries with the smallest
  competitive shares were those impacted most by
  the recessioncommercial building, commercial
  banking, local government, electrical
  contractors, etc.

28
2007-2011 Health and Medical Services Sector
Employment Growth Ten Fastest Growing Industries

• The HMS Sector weathered the recent recession
  better than others.
• All told, approximately 8,200 jobs were added
  between 2007 and 2011.
• Of the 41 detailed industries within the sector,
  all but 13 grew over the period. Of the
  decliners, only one, medical laboratories, had a
  significant loss (-400 jobs).

29
2001-2011 Tourism/Gaming/Entertainment Employment
Growth by Sub-Sector

• Within the broadly-defined Nevada TGE sector,
  most sub-sectors have added jobs. In some cases,
  gains have been considerable.
• Food/drinking establishments have added 34K jobs
  in the past decade. The retail trade and
  non-casino lodging sub-sectors each added about
  7K employees to payroll.
• The most notable drop came in the gaming
  sub-sector, where 26K positions were cut.

30
For Additional Information, Please Contact

• Nevada Department of Employment, Training and
  Rehabilitation
• Research and Analysis Bureau
• Bill Anderson
• Chief Economist
• wdanderson_at_nvdetr.org
• [phone]
• http//www.nevadaworkforce.com
• follow us on Twitter _at_nvlabormarket