Diapositive 1

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Climate change adaptation days, First Edition,
01-02 April 2014, Ouahigouya, Burkina Faso

• Climate-smart agriculture
• Action for reduced vulnerability of Agriculture
  and Food Systems to Climate Change

Dr Robert Zougmoré Regional Program Leader West
Africa
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Outline

1. West Africa in brief
2. Key challenges
3. Plausible future scenarios of agriculture
4. Needs for climate-smart actions

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Socio economic overview of West Africa

• Vegetation and Land use
• Under-five mortality is between 100 and
  200/1000.
• The majority of the countries have a life
  expectancy of between 50 and 60 years.

Population in 2010 was about 290 million.
Agricultural sector employs 60 of the active
labor force contributing 35 of GDP.
In 2008, per capita GDP ranged from US128 in
Guinea-Bissau to more than US1,500 in Cape
Verde, with all other countries having less than
US 500
An average of about 7080 percent of the
population lives on less than US2 per day
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Natural Resource Endowment in WA
10.3 exploited in West Africa
Arable Land 236 million ha
However, West African economies are especially
vulnerable to climate change as a result of their
heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture.
10 developed
Irrigable Land 8.9 million ha
Significant pastoral and fisheries resources
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Major challenges

• increase agricultural production among
  resource-poor farmers without exacerbating
  environmental problems
• and simultaneously coping with climate change
  (adaptation).

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Length of growing season is likely to decline..


Length of growing period ()
gt20 loss 5-20 loss No change 5-20 gain gt20
gain
To 2090, taking 18 climate models Four degree
rise
Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy
Science
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Scenarios for the future
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Analytical framework

• Integrates modeling components (macro to micro,
  to model range of processes, from those driven by
  economics to those that are essentially
  biological in nature (IMPACT, HYDROLOGY, DSSAT,
  GCMs)
• Used hundred of scenario maps, models, figures,
  and their detailed analysis
• To generate plausible future scenarios that
  combine economic and biophysical characteristics
• to explore the possible consequences for
  agriculture, food security, and resources
  management to 2050
• National contributors from 11 countries reviewed
  the scenario results for their countries and
  proposed a variety of policies to counter the
  effects of climate change on agriculture and food
  security.

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Population and income

• A significant increase in the population of all
  countries except Cape Verde pessimistic
  population of all countries will more than double
  except Cape Verde
• Income per capita in the optimistic scenario
  could range from US 1,594 for Liberia to US
  6,265 for Cote dIvoire.
• Income per capita does not improve significantly
  in the pessimistic scenario.

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Rainfall

• Despite variations among models, there is a clear
  indication of
• changes in precipitation with either a reduction
  in the heavy-rainfall areas, particularly along
  the coast,
• or an increase in areas of the Sahel hitherto
  devoid of much rain.
• Southern parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria
  will be dryer

Change in average annual precipitation,
20002050, CSIRO, A1B (mm)

MIROC, A1B (mm)
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Changes in yields (percent), 20102050, from the
DSSAT crop model CSIRO A1B
MIROC A1B
Maize
Groundnut
Sorghum
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Regional/landscape implications
Coastal West Africa
Sahelian region
Drought and floods could affect productivity and
even threaten the existence of plants and animals
along the coast and the Sahel, respectively
Spread of malaria and trypanosomiases in
hitherto dry areas in the Sahel
Heavy rains could pose a serious challenge to
unpaved feeder roads vital for transport of
inputs to farming areas and produce to market
Farmers and pastoralists may have to contend
with new farming cultures including land tenure
and changing food habits
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How can smallholder farmers achieve food security
under a changing climate?
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We need climate-smart agriculture actions at all
levels
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Agriculture must become climate-smart

• sustainably increases productivity
• Increases resilience (adaptation)
• reduces greenhouse gases where possible
• and enhances the achievement of national food
  security and development goals

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Farm and community climate-smart practices,
institutions
Climate-smart agriculture happens at multiple
levels
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Concept of climate-smart villages

• Approach where CCAFS in partnership with rural
  communities and other stakeholders (NARES, NGOs,
  local authorities), tests validates in an
  integrated manner, several agricultural
  interventions
• Aims to boost farmers ability to adapt to
  climate change, manage risks and build
  resilience.
• At the same time, the hope is to improve
  livelihoods and incomes and, where possible,
  reduce greenhouse gas emissions to ensure
  solutions are sustainable

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Climate-smart villages
How it works?

• Scaling up
• Policy
• Private sector
• Mainstream successes via major initiatives

• Learning sites
• Multiple partners
• Capacity building

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Climate-smart villages in Ghana (Doggoh), BF
(Tibtenga), Senegal (Kaffrine), Mali (Cinzana),
Niger (Kampa zarma)

• Partnership
• NARS
• Extension
• NGOs
• Universities
• Developt. partners
• Private sector
• CBOs, Local leaders

• Concrete action at community level
• increase agricultural productivity and farmers
  income
• strengthen the resilience of ecosystems and
  livelihoods to climate change
• and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

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Examples of Successful CSA
2013
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Bringing back the Sahels underground forest
NIGER

• 1980s loss of trees led to severe soil
  infertility, crop failure, famine.
• Land restored through farmer-managed natural
  regeneration (FMNR).
• FMNR encourages farmers to regrow indigenous
  trees.

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Success at scale
NIGER

• 5 million ha of land restored, over 200 million
  trees re-established.
• FMNR spreading across southern Niger, Burkina
  Faso, Mali and Senegal.

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Benefits for food production, adaptation and
mitigation
NIGER

• Food production
• additional half a million tonnes of grain per
  year.
• improved food security of 2.5 million people.
• yields of millet from 150 kg/ha to 500 kg/ha.
• Adaptation
• improved structure and fertility of the soil.
• water more accessible.
• Mitigation
• sequestration of carbon in soil, tree roots and
  wood.

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Water harvesting boosts yields in the Sahel
WEST AFRICA SAHEL

• Sahel Droughts common and farming difficult
  with sparse rainfall.
• Changes in land management stone bunds and zai
  pits.

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Success at scale
WEST AFRICA SAHEL

• Contour bunds established on 200,000 to 300,000
  ha.
• Yields double those on unimproved land.
• Tree cover and diversity increased.
• Groundwater levels rising.

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Benefits for food production, adaptation and
mitigation
WEST AFRICA SAHEL

• Food production
• predicted that the improved land will produce
  enough to feed 500,000 to 750,000 people.
• increased diversity of food, health benefits.
• Adaptation
• contour bunds able to cope with changing weather.
• Mitigation
• land management prevents further worsening of
  soil quality.

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Upfront costs often substantialBrazil US 250
million over two yearsMorocco over US 1
billion per annumVietnam US 500 million in 2011
Strong government support is crucial

• Policy support, e.g. secure land and resource
  tenure
• Strategies for scaling-up
• Institutional frameworks
• Funding

CAADP e.g. Maputo commitments, African Regional
Strategy on Disaster Risk Reduction
UNFCC e.g. Green Climate Fund, Least Developed
Countries Fund, Adaptation Fund
Multi-lateral e.g. IFAD Adaptation for
Smallholder Agriculture Program, G8 Global
Agriculture Food Security Program
Some private finance e.g. supply chain security,
carbon markets, corporate social responsibility
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www.ccafs.cgiar.org r.zougmore_at_cgiar.org
Thanks for your attention