Comments on Agricultural Modernization and Sustainable Development

1
Comments on Agricultural Modernization and
Sustainable Development

• Keijiro Otsuka
• ?????
• Director, Foundation for Advance Studies on
  International Development
• ??,??????????
• Chair, Board of Trustees of IRRI
• ??????????

2
Do Chinese Farmers Overuse Fertilizer?

• Linxiu Zhang et al. Yes
• K.O. I do not want to believe it.
• Endogeneity of fertilizer use
• Quality difference in fertilizer (Cross-sectional
  price differences reflect quality differences.)
• Differences in crops, different production
  elasticities
• Labor elasticity .02.09. Land elasticity .75

3
Sustainable Agricultural Development More
Products with Less Labor, Water, Chemical
Fertilizer, and Pesticide

1. Less labor It is easy as labor can be
   substituted for by machines without affecting
   yield.
2. Less water Since 60 of diverted water in Asia
   is used for paddy production, it is probably
   cost-effective to reduce water use in irrigated
   paddy fields. Currently 2 tons of water is used
   to produce 1 kg of rice. Technically 30
   reduction is possible by seed improvement and
   water management methods now.

4
Continued

1. Less chemical fertilizer This is a major
   challenge, as fertilizer is like food. Prices
   of chemical fertilizer are expected to increase
   rapidly. Site Specific Nutrient Management
   (SSNM)? 30 reduction without affecting yield,
   but this is knowledge intensive. SSNM has
   nothing to do with overuse of fertilizer in
   China.
2. Less pesticide Integrated pest management (IPM)
   ? 80-90 reduction.

5
Sustainable Rural Development How to ensure
sufficient income?

• Rural-to-urban migration, large mechanization,
  farm size expansion through rental transactions
  (Scott 1ha, 2ha, 3ha?)
• I recommend 10 ha in 10 years. But if average
  farm size is 0.4ha, there are as many as 25
  landlords per farmer.
• Rural industrialization is an option, given
  extreme urban congestion in China.