Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: Systems Architecting and the Political Process What

1
Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture SeriesSystems
Architecting and the Political ProcessWhats
Next for Manned Space Programs? University of
Southern CaliforniaViterbi School of
EngineeringSystems Architecture Engineering
(SAE)

• Ken Cureton
• February 2015
• cureton_at_usc.edu

2

• WHATS NEXT FOR MANNED SPACE?
• LOSS OF CHALLENGER IN 1987 GREATLY INFLUENCED THE
  PROGRAMS FUTURE
• GRADUAL RECOGNITION IN 1990s THAT SHUTTLE DESIGN
  WAS AGING
• MORE EXPENSIVE TO MAINTAIN AND LAUNCH THAN EVER
• LOSS OF COLUMBIA IN 2003 ACCELERATED THE SEARCH
  FOR COST SAVINGS
• MANY REPLACEMENT SYSTEMS PROPOSED, FUNDED, AND
  THEN CANCELLED

3

• MOST RECENTLY CANCELLED PROGRAM
• CONSTELLATIONNASA AUTHORIZATIONACT OF
  2010BROUGHT PROGRAMTO AN ENDON OCTOBER 11,
  2010
• CONSTELLATION PROGRAM REPLACED BY THE U.S.
  NATIONAL SPACE POLICY
• FINAL SHUTTLE FLIGHT JULY 8, 2011
• RELIANT ON RUSSIANS THEREAFTER

4

• RUSSIAN SPACECRAFT ARE NOW THE ONLY MEANS USED BY
  ASTRONAUTS TRAVELING TO THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE
  STATION
• BAIKONUR IS SOLE LAUNCH SITE USED FOR MANNED
  MISSIONS TO THE ISS
• MAY 2014 RUSSIANS ANNOUNCED NO MORE SUPPORT TO
  ISS AFTER 2020
• NASA NOW WORKING WITH US COMPANIES
• DEVELOPING SPACE TAXIS WITH GOAL OF RESTORING US
  TRANSPORT TO ISS BY 2017

5
RUSSIAN SOYUZ MANNED LAUNCH SYSTEM
6
SOYUZ-TM EXTERIOR
CREW RETURN MODULE
CREW CAPACITY THREE
7
SOYUZ-TM INTERIOR
8

• CHINA MANNED SPACEFLIGHT PLAN
• FIRST MANNED SPACEVEHICLE 10/15/2003
• SPACE LABORATORY 201520 DAYS WITH CREW OF 3
• SPACE STATION 2018
• INDIA MANNED SPACE FLIGHT AFTER 2017

SHENZHOU 5 REENTRY MODULE
9

• COMMERCIAL SPACE INFRASTRUCTURE?
• NASAS 30M COMMERCIAL CREW PROGRAM
• 2 COMPANIES BOEING, SIERRA NEVADA CORPORATION
  SPACE SYSTEMS SPACEX
• POTENTIALLY TRANSPORT CREW MEMBERS FROM UNITED
  STATES LAUNCH SITES TO ISS
• APRIL 2014SPACEXCOMMERCIALDRAGONRESUPPLY
  SHIPDOCKS WITH ISS

10
Cancelled
11
X-38 (B-52 DROP TO PARAFOIL LANDING)
Cancelled
12
NASA X-51A "WAVERIDER MAY 27 2010 200
seconds, up to Mach 5 and 70,000 feet MAY 3
2013 240 seconds, Mach 5.1 at 60,000 feet
Experimental - But Unmanned
13

• EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY (ESA) ARIANE 5 LAUNCH
  VEHICLE
• UNMANNED-- BUT COULD BE EXPANDED

14

• RUSSIAN PROTON LAUNCH VEHICLE

15

• NEW ANGARARUSSIANMANNEDLAUNCHVEHICLES
• ANNOUNCEDBY VLADIMIRPUTINJULY OF 2013
• SCHEDULEDFOR 2018-2020

16

• CHINESE LONG MARCH 2F VEHICLE
• SHENZHOU CAPSULELAUCHER
• CHINESE LONG MARCH 7 VEHICLE IN DEVELOPMENT

17

• INDIAN POLAR SATELLITE LAUNCH VEHICLE PSLV
• UNMANNED-- BUT PROTOTYPE FOR FUTURE MANNED
  BOOSTERS

18

• PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE
• IN YOUR PRESENTERS HUMBLE(AND EVER SO
  UNBIASED!) OPINION
• U.S. WILL (IN THE SHORT TERM)
• CONTINUE IN UNMANNED SPACE, BUT WITH INCREASING
  FOREIGN COMPETITION
• CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE PRIVATE FUNDING FOR
  UNMANNED SYSTEMS, WITH SOME COMMERCIALIZATION OF
  MANNED SPACE-- BUT WITH LITTLE GOVERNMENT FUNDING
• CUT-OFF USE of RUSSIAN LAUNCHERS BUT SPECTER OF
  COMPETITION FROM ASIAN COUNTRIES WILL STIMULATE
  RESURGENCE OF NATIONAL PRIDE
• SOMEWHERE AFTER YEAR 2017-TO-2020

19

• PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED)
• FACT OF LIFE 3 A STRONG, COHERENT CONSTITUENCY
  IS ESSENTIAL
• U.S. TYPICALLY PERFORMES STRONGLY WHEN STIMULATED
  BY FEAR OF FOREIGN DOMINATION
• OFTEN VILIFIES OTHER COUNTRIESOUT OF FEAR
• INCREASED PUBLIC SUPPORT DUE TO PERCEIVED THREAT
  OF RUSSIANS AND CHINESE AFTER 2020
• AFTER WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ NO LONGER A
  HEAVY DRAIN ON ECONOMY

20

• PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED)
• FACT OF LIFE 5 BEST TECHNICAL SOLUTION OFTEN
  NOT BEST POLITICAL SOLUTION
• POLITICAL VALUE OF MANNED SPACE WILL CHANGE
  BASED ON TWO FACTORS
• PERCEIVED THREAT OF FOREIGN DOMINATION
• NEED TO REVIVE HIGH-TECH AEROSPACE JOBS
• NASA FOCUS PRIMARILY ON AERONAUTICS AND UNMANNED
  SPACE EXPLORATION
• SOME MANNED SPACE FOR SPACE STATION SUPPORT
• DOD (AIR FORCE) TO ADD CAPABILITY FOR MANNED
  SPACE WITH MILITARY MISSIONS
• DISPOSABLE SPACE PLANE ON TOP OF AN EXISTING
  MILITARY BOOSTER
• ALSO CONTINUING EFFORT IN SATELLITES