Precipitation and Flash Flood Monitoring

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Precipitation and Flash Flood Monitoring

• Presented by
• Bob Kuligowski

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Requirement, Science, and Benefit

• Requirement/Objective
• Mission Goal Weather Water
• Increase lead time and accuracy for weather and
  water warnings and forecasts
• Increase development, application, and transition
  of advanced science and technology to operations
  and services
• Reduce uncertainty associated with weather and
  water decision tools and assessments
• Science
• What are the optimal methods and algorithms by
  which multi-spectral and multi-platform (GEO and
  LEO) satellite observations, in-situ data, and
  numerical models can be integrated to provide
  usefully accurate, near-real-time quantitative
  precipitation information?
• Benefit
• Improve weather forecasting
• Reduce loss of life and property from disasters

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Challenges and Path Forward

• Science challenges
• Midlatitude warm rain and snow are still very
  difficult to detect using either microwave or IR
• Orographic effects highly difficult to depict
  properly
• Next steps
• Integrated Observations, Products, and Synthesis
  Leverage anticipated improvements in midlatitude
  precipitation retrieval from GPM into SCaMPR
• Core satellite launch in 2013 constellation will
  include NPOESS (2011), Megha-Tropiques (2010),
  and other PMW instruments
• Research to Operations Implement SCaMPR in
  GOES-R Ground System
• Final code to be turned in to System Prime
  contractor in September 2010
• Transition Path
• Experimental version of SCaMPR will be evaluated
  by users and disseminated to AWIPS in pre-GOES-R
  era if approved by SPSRB

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Basics of Satellite Rainfall Monitoring

• Two ways to retrieve rainfall rate
• Infrared (IR) relate cloud-top temperature to
  cloud height, depth, and rain rate
• Strength can monitor from geostationary orbit
• Weakness weak physical connection between
  cloud-top properties and rain rate
• Microwave (MW) relate horizontal temperature
  differences to cloud water / ice content and rain
  rate
• Strength relatively strong connection between
  cloud contents and rain rate
• Weakness can monitor only from low-Earth orbita
  few snapshots per day

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NESDIS Operational Hydro-Estimator (H-E)

• Developed at STAR as an automation of manual
  techniques also previously developed at STAR
• Operational since 2002 disseminated to NWS field
  offices via AWIPS
• Uses IR window to derive rain rates uses
  numerical weather model output to adjust for
  sub-cloud-top influences (e.g., evaporation,
  terrain effects)
• Run globally in real time on an experimental
  basis
• Run operationally in Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil,
  South Africa
• Providing flash flood forecast support in Central
  America, Mekong Delta, Southern Africa via
  collaboration with NWS and HRC

Hourly H-E Estimates for 4 June 2009
Hydro-Estimator 1-hour Accumulated Rainfall (mm)
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NESDIS Experimental Rainfall Algorithm

• Self-Calibrating Multivariate Precipitation
  Retrieval (SCaMPR)
• Developed at STAR
• Uses more-accurate MW rain rates to automatically
  calibrate more-frequently-available IR inputs
  from GOES in real time
• Run in real time over the CONUS since late 2004
• Improvements currently being evaluated, including
  additional GOES data and expanded coverage area
• Modified version of SCaMPR developed for GOES-R
  ABI using SEVIRI as proxy

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Challenges and Path Forward

• Science challenges
• Midlatitude warm rain and snow are still very
  difficult to detect using either microwave or IR
• Orographic effects highly difficult to depict
  properly
• Next steps
• Integrated Observations, Products, and Synthesis
  Leverage anticipated improvements in midlatitude
  precipitation retrieval from GPM into SCaMPR
• Core satellite launch in 2013 constellation will
  include NPOESS (2011), Megha-Tropiques (2010),
  and other PMW instruments
• Research to Operations Implement SCaMPR in
  GOES-R Ground System
• Final code to be turned in to System Prime
  contractor in September 2010
• Transition Path
• Experimental version of SCaMPR will be evaluated
  by users and disseminated to AWIPS in pre-GOES-R
  era if approved by SPSRB