Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement

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Anti-Trust/Competition Law Compliance Statement

• INTERTANKOs policy is to be firmly committed to
  maintaining a fair and competitive environment in
  the world tanker trade, and to adhering to all
  applicable laws which regulate INTERTANKOs and
  its members activities in these markets. These
  laws include the anti-trust/competition laws
  which the United States, the European Union and
  many nations of the world have adopted to
  preserve the free enterprise system, promote
  competition and protect the public from
  monopolistic and other restrictive trade
  practices. INTERTANKOs activities will be
  conducted in compliance with its
  Anti-trust/Competition Law Guidelines.

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Thetanker market_some issues to consider
NEP - Oslo6 October 2010
Erik.Ranheim_at_INTERTANKO.com Manager Research and
Projects
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Tanker market

• Low freight rates
• Many deliveries of new tankers
• SH hull tankers marginal
• Surplus shibuilding capacity building up?
• Positive economic growthbut uncertainty
• High oil price

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Average tanker freight rates based on the Baltic
rates until 01 October
/day
Current levels
Source Baltic Exchange/INTERTANKO
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World GDP and oil demand change

Source. IMF/BP/IEA/Fearnleys
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Oil demand
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World oil demand
Increase in Middle East, USA, China and ROW
Total oil demand
1Q06-4Q11
mbd
mbd
Source. IEA
8
European crude oil import by source
mbd import by source
mbd total import
Source IEA
9
N America crude oil import by source
Mbd import by source
Mbd total import
Source IEA/INTERTANKO
10
OECD Pacific crude oil import by source
mbd import by source
mbd total import
Source IEA/INTERTANKO
11
Chinese crude oil demand and production
mbd
Source IEA
12
Middle East oil production Jan - 2000 to Aug -
2010
mbd
Source IEA
13
FSU petroleum export, crude oil by outlet and
total products
mbd
Russian oil production reached a record of 10.16M
barrels per day in September
Source INTERTANKO/IEA
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Product import
mbd
Source EIA/IEA/SAJ
15
European product import by source
mbd import by source
mbd total import
Source IEA
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US gasoline import
mbd
Source EIA
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US product export
mbd
Source EIA
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Oil consumption - by product group
shareNorthern winter season less prevalent
European fuel oil share of total 10 US fuel oil
share of total 3
Source BP/INTERTANKO
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Tanker supply
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Orders for new tankers - bn
bn investment
m dwt
1988-2002, 15 years inv 109 bn, yearly average
7.2 bn Yrl av 20 bn Yrl av 43 bn
Source Clarkson Shipyard Monitor/INTERTANKO
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Tanker fleet development
number
m dwt
Increase 2010-2013 10,000 - 59,999 dwt
10 60,000 - 79,999 dwt 20 80,000 -
119,999 dwt 14 120,000 - 199,999 dwt
40 200,000 dwt 30 Total
10,000 dwt 23
Assumed slippage of deliveries in 2010 which are
moved to 2012
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Sales for decommissioning and conversion of
tankers and combos
m dwt
Source Various /INTERTANKO
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Tanker deliveries, removals, max
phase-outTankers gt 10,000 dwt
m dwt
Assumed balanced market end 2008Deliveries and
orderbook based on Clarkson World Shipyard
Monitor Assumed slippage of deliveries in 2010
which are moved to 2012
Fleet 3,837 408.6 m dwt 100 Orderbook
874 116.4 28 of fleet Not DH
800 28.6 7 of fleet
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Tanker Prices shipyard capacity
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Tanker newbuilding prices
m
Source Clarkson
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World shipyards capacity, deliveries and
utilisation rates
m cgt
SourceWorldyards
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Short term considerations
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Industry OECD oil stocks
Days forward demand
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Floating storageby segment
Number
Source EA Gibson
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VLCCs arriving AG next 30 days by hull 1 Dec
2006 until 1 Oct 2010
No
Source Pareto Bassøe AS
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The future
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Long term opportunities

• Population growth
• Many Chinese Indians African still do not drive
  cars
• Moderate long term economic growth?
• EIA long term 1 increase in oil demand
• GHG reduction measures?

Oslo Opera tunnel
quadrillion Btu
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The tanker is market facing
Conclusion

• Increasing fleet 2010-2012
• Abating demand 2011?
• Russian oil moving eastward
• Continued high levels of global oil stocks and
  expectations that demand growth will ease in
  coming months is weighing on prices.
• Weakening relationship GDP growth and oil demand
  / expansion services relative to manufacturing