Transitions

1
Transitions

• Our civilization has achieved marvels due to
  cheap fossil fuels. Now we test our true measure.
  How will we be remembered?

2
What Transitions?

• Demographic transition
• NOT ONLY developing world problem. Developed
  world esp. NA burdening ALL w/ promise of hi-tech
  solutions that havent come
• Only prosperous countries fix pollution
• fix often by exporting waste activities to
  developing world
• Daunting complexities are defeating even
  developed world
• science has failed 80 of humanity. Seeding our
  civilizations destruction, but also preserving
  more for the next?
• Energy transition
• Short term choices hard soft path (bet on
  nukes because of Kyoto)
• Waiting for fusion. Will the next civilization
  be interplanetary?
• Transition is MUCH BIGGER than Apollo program
  need
• Mental transition most fundamental!
• From planet restricted exp. growth to powerdown

3
Conserve our Way Through Demographic Transition?
If conservation was the answer, then Bangladesh
would be the most prosperous nation on earth.
J. Pournelle
4
How Much Longer for Exp. Growth? How Much Longer
to Hubbert Peak/Transition?

• Ongoing regional collapse
• All projections need unproved technologies to
  extend depletion. No plan B
• e.g. North Sea

UK
Norway
5
ANWRs Role
When US demand contracts because of deep
recession/depression, ANWR will maintain domestic
supply for 15 yrs
6
World Prospects
Experience from 70 countries is that
Conventional oil drops 6-14 annually after peak!
7
But They Have No Excess Oil Extraction Capacity!
8
an Expensive Contest
9

• My life was shit and it was going to short
  anyway. So I took up a gun to have a bit of fun
  before I die. I have nothing to lose.

Mayor Black Man, Revolutionary United Front,
Sierra Leone
10
Angry, Unemployed Young Men
Germany
M
F
2050 w/ cheap oil
millions
Pakistan

• USs colossal energy waste, alliances w/ corrupt
  leaders, global media control targets us,
  underscores economic disparity
• Devils Tears (oil) / Breath (NG) drive regional
  corruption conflicts, produces Blowback
• Religion fans the conflagration

11
No More Oil Exploring, Just Consolidation
Switching rigs fast from oil to NG
12
More US Nukes?

• Make sense only if most housing retrofitted for
  electrical heat
• Displaces oil NG. But, displaced is unsuitable
  for vehicles
• Massive electrification of road transport
  necessary, more use of trains
• Improved battery technology for short trips
• Electric-gas hybrids (reverse of today)
• Once thru fuel-cycle moves to reprocessing,
  (breeders?)
• But needless complexities (fission prob. beyond
  our wisdom anyway) if dispense w/ world growth
  (cancer)

13
But Nukes Making H2 is Stupid
H2 production is good use of wind
14
Wind is Exponentiating

• All Europes power from two 5 MW turbines every
  km2 over 200x200 km shown (err, 80,000)

Such a concentrated facility is VERY vulnerable
15
Advancing the Transition

• Impose C tax, or at least price fuels to
  discourage use of those soon scarce
• Focus on electricity grid transport for max
  flexibility
• Long-distance, High-Voltage DC transmission
  (Fuller world grid) Demand demo
• Some in situ electricity generation local
  energy storage for security. Spread to developing
  world!
• Smart machines programmed to draw grid power
  during off-peak times. Minimizes storage
  peaking powerplants
• Powerdown, buy time for mental transition

16
When? world oil US NG
NOW!
lt 5 yrs
17
Will the Developing World Wait?

• Dont understand their coming crisis either (food
  production) have no means to
• See us grasping what is left, shutting them out
• Democrat/Republican govt responds same way
• Historical notions of our peace to all mankind
  are obsolete. US becoming despised as
  wasters/imperialists
• Stateless terrorists will soon have biowar
  means to bring us down
• Our WMDs do not work against them
• Confronting them on own terms will further
  militarize US
• Religious nuts on both sides fan flames exactly
  when extreme rationality is critical

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2 Routes Down the Slope

• Endless War from failing Empire
• Carter Doctrine, Rumsfeld 10-30-30 policy
• Preserve American Way of Life
• Cooperation
• E.g. Uppsala Oil Depletion Protocol
• Recognize underlying cause, rationalize response
• Educate, manage decline/transition
• Plan for the worse and hope for the best

Stay mentally agile alert, seek alternatives to
corporate media for data to minimize
brainwashing. While pursuing dreams, avoid debt
traps and prepare for hard times. A bad storm is
coming, few are ready, and little of what fills
our lives today will be relevant.
19
Was this inevitable after we discovered the
Devils Tears Breath?