Sensitivity Study of a Coupled Carbon Dioxide Meteorological Modeling System with Case Studies

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Sensitivity Study of a Coupled Carbon Dioxide
Meteorological Modeling System with Case Studies
The NIRE CO2 _at_ ETA model

• András Zénó Gyöngyösi, Tamás Weidinger, László
  Haszpra, Zsuzsanna Iványi and Hiroaki Kondo

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Overview

• Short model description
• NIRE
• ETA
• Implementation
• NIRE
• ETA
• Coupling of NIRE to ETA
• Sensitivity studies
• Case studies
• Conclusion, future works

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Model Description

• NIRE
• Mesoscale circulation model (simple dynamics)
• Dispersion model
• Boussinesq-approximation
• Anelastic equations
• Terrain following s-coordinate (vrbl. res.)
• Staggered (Arakawa) grid
• First order turbulent closure (K Richardson )
• Vertical diff implicit solver
• Horizontal diff just for numerical stability
• Srfc Monin-Obuhov Energy Balance Eq.
• Soil Thermal conductivity eq.

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Surface parameterization

• H2O passive scalar, saturation _at_ srfc
• No clouds, relevant in sfc heat balance
• CO2
• Vegetation (Photosynth.Res.)
• for each veg. mosaic gt synthesized flux
• Anthropogen
• area sources _at_ srfc (heating and traffic)
• large stacks plume rise (CONCAWE)

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Boundary conditioning Numerical integration

• Lateral bndry
• Flow relaxation zone
• Top bndry
• Sponge layer
• Initialization
• Dynamical init. spin-up
• Time integration Leap frog Forward each 20th
  step to adjust numerical mode

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Implementation

• Surface files
• IGBP landcover landuse database (USGS)
• Sensitivity test
• Dynamics
• Superadiabatic stratification
• Strong wind
• Basin
• Carpathian Basin _at_ bndry nonlinear interaction
  topography -- bndry

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Model bndry interacts w/ topography strong
nonlinear effects More effective bndry conditions
are necessary
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Sensitivity Study
Mixing layer depth (Convective PBL) _at_ different
cloud amounts
Time evolution of CO2 in the model domain
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The Meteorological driver

• NCEP/ETA model (EMS NWS/NOAA)
• Limited area NWP model
• Primitive hydrostatic eqs non-hydrost. Option
• Modified terrain following coordinate system
• Eta (modified sigma)
• approx horiz. srfs separatio nof lee flow
• sfc PBL param. sophisticated

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Adaptation
Adaptation of ETA

• Operational run for Central Europe

• Operational run for Central Europe

Budapest
Init bndry conds downloaded from NCEP every
morning
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Dynamical Test (non-hydrostatic option)

• Hydrostatic equations, non-hydrostatic effects
  parameterized
• Small-scale effect are more non-hydrost.
• Small impact on solutions
• In the standard run non-hydrost. Option not
  implemented
• DF init. not used

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The Mass field
Pressure falling (approaching system)
NH departure
9m
Psfc
H500
?h-.41.4 h55305620
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The Wind field
NH wind stronger more KE generation
NH departures associated with topography
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Coupling NIRE to ETA

• Super-adiabatic lapse rate ?instab
• Extreme wind speed ?
• instab _at_ lat top bndry
• Flow relax term ?
• changed to sine shape
• Top sponge layer enlarged
• Adiabat. adjustment

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A Case study

• Cold inversion in the Basin
• 02 February 2006
• Inversion case
• Convective boundary layer after the decay of the
  inversion
• 06 February 2006
• Convection case

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Effect of a single large stack

• Plume rise (CONCAWE Briggs, 1968)
• 200 m high
• 280 m3/s _at_ 3000C
• 1000 t/day CO2 emission
• Located in the middle of the domain

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Time evolution of temperature
Inversion
Convection
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Temperature Profiles _at_ different time of the day
Inversion
Convection
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Time evolution of CO2
Inversion
Convection
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CO2 Profiles _at_ different time of the day
Inversion
Convection
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12 LST
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15 LST
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18 LST
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22 LST
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Conclusion

• NIRE is able to provide realistic meteorological
  conditions in suitable initial and boundary
  conditions taken from ETA
• The modular structure of it makes them suitable
  for PBL tests
• The coupled system is able to calculate
  concentration for different extreme
  meteorological conditions

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Future works

• Introduction of newer parameterization schemes
  into the CO2 model further sensitivity and case
  studies
• Daily coupled system runs for the estimation of
  annual variation of surface fluxes
• Estimation of annual Carbon budget of the
  Carpatian Basin