FORECASTING MODELS AND METHODS

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FORECASTING MODELS AND METHODS

• Dr. Geurts Lecture

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New Products

• 1. Buyer intention surveys
• Definitely will buy
• Highly possible
• As likely as unlikely to buy
• highly doubtful to buy
• Definitely will not buy
• 2. Test markets
• 3. Flow through or economic study
• 4. Diffusion models rate of adoption
  imitators/innovators
• 5. Product comparable

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New Products- cont

• 6. Judgmental models expert guess, Delphi
• 7. New product models like dumps
• Durability
• Number of potential Users
• Number of Major competitors
• Number of Potential customers
• Proportion made aware MARKET Share
• 8. Conjoint analysis determine value of product
  attributes an estimate market share.
• 9. Trend/fashion forecasts Innovators

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Existing Product Sales

• 10. Business activity capacity being used
• 11. Time series past data patterns
• a. exponential smoothing
• b. Box-Jenkins ARIMA
• 12. Response models Sales and marketing mix
  variables
• 13. Econometric models Using economic
  indicators
• 14. Salesmen composite Summation of salesman
  forecast for her territory
• 15. Logistic regression combination of
  marketing mix variables and time series forecasts.

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Other Forecasting Methods

• 15. Technological
• 16. Combining forecasts
• 17. Partitioned data
• 18. Regression
• 19. Interest rates
• 20. Economic Growth

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• Role of Data
• Bad
• Past
• Other forecasts
• Uses of Forecasts
• Budgets
• Production quantities
• Inventory control
• Planning
• Bank loans
• Identify effect of problems or promotions. If
  the forecasting has been accurate and the company
  runs a promotion. The company can measure the
  effects of the promotion as the difference
  between forecast and actual.