Basic linear regression and multiple regression

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• Basic linear regression and multiple regression
• Psych 350
• Lecture 12 R. Chris Fraleyhttp//www.yourperson
  ality.net/psych350/fall2012/

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Example

• Lets say we wish to model the relationship
  between coffee consumption and happiness

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Some Possible Functions
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Lines

• Linear relationships
• Y a bX
• a Y-intercept (the value of Y when X 0)
• b slope (the rise over the run, the steepness
  of the line) a weight

Y 1 2X
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Lines and intercepts

• Y a 2X
• Notice that the implied values of Y go up as we
  increase a.
• By changing a, we are changing the elevation of
  the line.

Y 5 2X
Y 3 2X
Y 1 2X
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Lines and slopes

• Slope as rise over run how much of a change in
  Y is there given a 1 unit increase in X.
• As we move up 1 unit on X, we go up 2 units on Y
• 2/1 2 (the slope)

rise from 1 to 3 (a 2 unit change)
rise
run
move from 0 to 1
Y 1 2X
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Lines and slopes

• Notice that as we increase the slope, b, we
  increase the steepness of the line

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Y 1 4X
5
HAPPINESS
Y 1 2X
0
-5
-4
-2
0
2
4
COFFEE
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Lines and slopes
b4
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• We can also have negative slopes and slopes of
  zero.
• When the slope is zero, the predicted values of Y
  are equal to a. Y a 0X
• Y a

b2
5
HAPPINESS
0
b0
b-2
-5
b-4
-4
-2
0
2
4
COFFEE
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Other functions

• Quadratic function
• Y a bX2
• a still represents the intercept (value of Y when
  X 0)
• b still represents a weight, and influences the
  magnitude of the squaring function

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Quadratic and intercepts

• As we increase a, the elevation of the curve
  increases

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Y 5 1X2
25
20
HAPPINESS
15
10
5
Y 0 1X2
0
-4
-2
0
2
4
COFFEE
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Quadratic and Weight

• When we increase the weight, b, the quadratic
  effect is accentuated

120
Y 0 5X2
100
80
HAPPINESS
60
40
20
Y 0 1X2
0
-4
-2
0
2
4
COFFEE
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Quadratic and Weight

• As before, we can have negative weights for
  quadratic functions.
• In this case, negative values of b flip the curve
  upside-down.
• As before, when b 0, the value of Y a for
  all values of X.

Y 0 5X2
100
Y 0 1X2
50
HAPPINESS
0
Y 0 0X2
-50
Y 0 1X2
-100
Y 0 5X2
-4
-2
0
2
4
COFFEE
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Linear Quadratic Combinations

• When linear and quadratic terms are present in
  the same equation, one can derive j-shaped curves
• Y a b1X b2X2

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Some terminology

• When the relation between variables are expressed
  in this manner, we call the relevant equation(s)
  mathematical models
• The intercept and weight values are called
  parameters of the model.
• Although one can describe the relationship
  between two variables in the way we have done
  here, for now on well assume that our models are
  causal models, such that the variable on the
  left-hand side of the equation is assumed to be
  caused by the variable(s) on the right-hand side.

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Terminology

• The values of Y in these models are often called
  predicted values, sometimes abbreviated as Y-hat
  or . Why? They are the values of Y that are
  implied by the specific parameters of the model.

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Estimation

• Up to this point, we have assumed that our models
  are correct.
• There are two important issues we need to deal
  with, however
• Assuming the basic model is correct (e.g.,
  linear), what are the correct parameters for the
  model?
• Is the basic form of the model correct? That is,
  is a linear, as opposed to a quadratic, model the
  appropriate model for characterizing the
  relationship between variables?

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Estimation

• The process of obtaining the correct parameter
  values (assuming we are working with the right
  model) is called parameter estimation.

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Parameter Estimation example

• Lets assume that we believe there is a linear
  relationship between X and Y.
• Assume we have collected the following data
• Which set of parameter values will bring us
  closest to representing the data accurately?

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Estimation example

• We begin by picking some values, plugging them
  into the linear equation, and seeing how well the
  implied values correspond to the observed values
• We can quantify what we mean by how well by
  examining the difference between the
  model-implied Y and the actual Y value
• this difference, , is often called
  error in prediction

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Estimation example

• Lets try a different value of b and see what
  happens
• Now the implied values of Y are getting closer to
  the actual values of Y, but were still off by
  quite a bit

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Estimation example

• Things are getting better, but certainly things
  could improve

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Estimation example

• Ah, much better

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Estimation example

• Now thats very nice
• There is a perfect correspondence between the
  implied values of Y and the actual values of Y

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Estimation example

• Whoa. Thats a little worse.
• Simply increasing b doesnt seem to make things
  increasingly better

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Estimation example

• Ugg. Things are getting worse again.

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Parameter Estimation example

• Here is one way to think about what were doing
  
• We are trying to find a set of parameter values
  that will give us a smallthe smallestdiscrepancy
  between the predicted Y values and the actual
  values of Y.
• How can we quantify this?

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Parameter Estimation example

• One way to do so is to find the difference
  between each value of Y and the corresponding
  predicted value (we called these differences
  errors before), square these differences, and
  average them together

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Parameter Estimation example

• The form of this equation should be familiar.
  Notice that it represents some kind of average of
  squared deviations
• This average is often called error variance.

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Parameter Estimation example

• In estimating the parameters of our model, we are
  trying to find a set of parameters that minimizes
  the error variance. In other words, we want
  to be as small as it possibly can be.
• The process of finding this minimum value is
  called least-squares estimation.

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Parameter Estimation example

• In this graph I have plotted the error variance
  as a function of the different parameter values
  we chose for b.
• Notice that our error was large at first (at b
  -2), but got smaller as we made b larger.
  Eventually, the error reached a minimum when b
  2 and, then, began to increase again as we made b
  larger.

Different values of b
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Parameter Estimation example

• The minimum in this example occurred when b 2.
  This is the best value of b, when we define
  best as the value that minimizes the error
  variance.
• There is no other value of b that will make the
  error smaller. (0 is as low as you can go.)

Different values of b
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Ways to estimate parameters

• The method we just used is sometimes called the
  brute force or gradient descent method to
  estimating parameters.
• More formally, gradient decent involves starting
  with viable parameter value, calculating the
  error using slightly different value, moving the
  best guess parameter value in the direction of
  the smallest error, then repeating this process
  until the error is as small as it can be.
• Analytic methods
• With simple linear models, the equation is so
  simple that brute force methods are unnecessary.

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Analytic least-squares estimation

• Specifically, one can use calculus to find the
  values of a and b that will minimize the error
  function

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Analytic least-squares estimation

• When this is done (we wont actually do the
  calculus here ? ), the obtain the following
  equations

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Analytic least-squares estimation

• Thus, we can easily find the least-squares
  estimates of a and b from simple knowledge of (1)
  the correlation between X and Y, (2) the SDs of
  X and Y, and (3) the means of X and Y

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A neat fact

• Notice what happens when X and Y are in standard
  score form
• Thus,

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• In the parameter estimation example, we dealt
  with a situation in which a linear model of the
  form Y 2 2X perfectly accounted for the data.
  (That is, there was no discrepancy between the
  values implied by the model and the actual data.)
• Even when this is not the case (i.e., when the
  model doesnt explain the data perfectly), we can
  still find least squares estimates of the
  parameters.

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Error Variance

• In this example, the value of b that minimizes
  the error variance is also 2. However, even when
  b 2, there are discrepancies between the
  predictions entailed by the model and the actual
  data values.
• Thus, the error variance becomes not only a way
  to estimate parameters, but a way to evaluate the
  basic model itself.

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R-squared

• In short, when the model is a good representation
  of the relationship between Y and X, the error
  variance of the model should be relatively low.
• This is typically quantified by an index called
  the multiple R or the squared version of it, R2.

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R-squared

• R-squared represents the proportion of the
  variance in Y that is accounted for by the model
• When the model doesnt do any better than
  guessing the mean, R2 will equal zero. When the
  model is perfect (i.e., it accounts for the data
  perfectly), R2 will equal 1.00.

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Neat fact

• When dealing with a simple linear model with one
  X, R2 is equal to the correlation of X and Y,
  squared.
• Why? Keep in mind that R2 is in a standardized
  metric in virtue of having divided the error
  variance by the variance of Y. Previously, when
  working with standardized scores in simple linear
  regression equations, we found that the parameter
  b is equal to r. Since b is estimated via
  least-squares techniques, it is directly related
  to R2.

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Why is R2 useful?

• R2 is useful because it is a standard metric for
  interpreting model fit.
• It doesnt matter how large the variance of Y is
  because everything is evaluated relative to the
  variance of Y
• Set end-points 1 is perfect and 0 is as bad as a
  model can be.

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Multiple Regression

• In many situations in personality psychology we
  are interested in modeling Y not only as a
  function of a single X variable, but potentially
  many X variables.
• Example We might attempt to explain variation in
  academic achievement as a function of SES and
  maternal education.

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• Y a b1SES b2MATEDU
• Notice that adding a new variable to the model
  is simple. This equation states that Y, academic
  achievement, is a function of at least two
  things, SES and MATEDU.

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• However, what the regression coefficients now
  represent is not merely the change in Y expected
  given a 1 unit increase in X. They represent the
  change in Y given a 1-unit change in X assuming
  all the other variables in the equation equal
  zero.
• In other words, these coefficients are kind of
  like partial correlations (technically, they are
  called semi-partial correlations). Were
  statistically controlling SES when estimating the
  effect of MATEDU.

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• Estimating regression coefficients in SPSS
• Correlations
• SES MATEDU ACHIEVEG5
• SES 1.00 .542 .279
• MATEDU .542 1.00 .364
• ACHIEVEG5 .279 .364 1.00

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Note The regression parameter estimates are in
the column labeled B. Constant a intercept
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Achievement 76.86 1.443MATEDU .539SES
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• These parameter estimates imply that moving up
  one unit on SES leads to a 1.4 unit increase on
  achievement.
• Moreover, moving up 1 unit in maternal education
  corresponds to a half-unit increase in
  achievement.

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• Does this mean that Maternal Education matters
  more than SES in predicting educational
  achievement?
• Not necessarily. As it stands, the two variables
  might be on very different metrics. (Perhaps
  MATEDU ranges from 0 to 20 and SES ranges from 0
  to 4.) To evaluate their relative contributions
  to Y, one can standardize both variables or
  examine standardized regression coefficients.

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Z(Achievement) 0 .301Z(MATEDU) .118Z(SES)
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The multiple R and the R squared for the full
model are listed here. This particular model
explains 14 of the variance in academic
achievement
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Adding SESSES (SES2) improves R-squared by about
1 These parameters suggest that higher SES
predicts higher achievement, but in a limiting
way. There are diminishing returns on the high
end of SES.
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SES a B1MATEDU B2SES B3SESSES Y-hat
-2 0 .2560 .436-2 -.320-2-2 -2.15
-1 0 .2560 .436-1 -.320-1-1 -0.76
0 0 .2560 .4360 -.32000 0.00
1 0 .2560 .4361 -.32011 0.12
2 0 .2560 .4362 -.32022 -0.41
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Predicted Z(Achievement)
Z(SES)